Methodology of CEPII’s Database on Trade in services

1. Methodology of CEPII’s Database on Trade in services OECD-Eurotat Meeting of Experts on TIS 26 - 29 April 2004 Isabelle Rabaud, Research fellow at CEPII and lecturer at University of Orléans 1

2. Purposes of CHELEM-Database • CHELEM-Database provides coherent long term time series on: • International Trade, • GDP, • Balance of Payments. • In the version of CHELEM-BOP of summer 2004, data from 1967 to 2002 will be available 1

3. TIS in CHELEM-BOP • 13 items of Trade in services • 4 aggregates : • Transportation services, • Other services, • Commercial services, • Total services. • Data are in current dollars. 1

4. SOURCES • Balance of Payments database of the IMF is the primary source of information • Completed by national data for Taiwan, for instance • For Hong Kong, data on early years, prior to 1998 are repatriated from the old CHELEM-BOP database. 1

5. Method to insure coherence of the data • First, inconsistencies between each aggregate (“transport” and “Other services” and the sum of its components are corrected. • Second, missing data for the latter years or inter-period of less than four years ahead are estimated. • Third, for the beginning of period, data registered in BPM4 nomenclature, including memorandum items, have been reallocated to the new classification recommended by BPM5. 1

6. Consistency of the aggregates (1) usual causes • If all components are null, the aggregate is reallocated to a residual item: • “233: Transport, n.i.e” or • “982: Services not included elsewhere” , • If gap=(Aggregate - S components) < 0 for credit, the aggregate is recalculated as the sum of components. • If gap = ±1 component, the aggregate is recalculated as the sum of components. • If S components < aggregate, residual item = initial value + gap. 1

7. Consistency of the aggregates (2) causes specific to transport • Decomposition by mode seldom available before mid 1980’s or 1990’s • Breakdown by mode is estimated in 3 steps: • Broad geographic areas are defined as in DOTS with distinction of enclosed and non-enclosed countries, • For a given country, for each missing year, the product of the aggregate by the average share of the mode of the area to which it belongs is reallocated to each mode. • For early years, the average shares of some areas are not available; then the aggregate is entirely reallocated to the residual item. 1

8. Consistency of the aggregates (3) causes specific to services • No reallocation is made for “other services”. • For total services: • From 1985 to 1990, for Japan, each service is estimated by the product of the aggregate and the average share during 1991 to 1993. • For Korea, the average share from 1999 to 2001 estimates 2002. • For Vietnam, the average share of each service in Asia is used. 1

9. Estimation of missing data • Missing data for the latter years or inter-period of less than four years ahead are estimated: • For each item and each year, the share of each country in global transactions is calculated; • For each item, each missing value is then calculated as the share of the country in global operations during the preceding year. 1

10. Matching BPM4 and BPM5 classification 1