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Money Matters: Post Heritage Day Blues. Tuesday, 25 September 2012. Agenda. Technical Market Overview Top Down Approach Money Matters Recap Feedback from last month’s meeting Top 5 Technical Trade Ideas Technical analysis Top 5 Investment opportunities Fundamental analysis Summary
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Money Matters: Post Heritage Day Blues Tuesday, 25 September 2012
Agenda • Technical Market Overview • Top Down Approach • Money Matters Recap • Feedback from last month’s meeting • Top 5 Technical Trade Ideas • Technical analysis • Top 5 Investment opportunities • Fundamental analysis • Summary • Conclusion
International Markets Resistance Resistance Support Bullish
Brent Oil & Gold $ Resistance Resistance Support Support Bullish Resistance Resistance Support Bullish
Exchange Rates Support US$ Strength Channel Resistance Resistance Support Triangle Resistance ZAR Weakness
Local Markets Resistance Support Support Bullish
JSE Resources 20 Resistance Resistance Support Bullish
Previous Trade Ideas • FirstRand (FSR) • Gold Fields (GFI) • BATS (BTI) • Aspen (APN)
FirstRand (FSR) Instrument: CFD / SSF Direction: Sell / Short Entry: 28.15 Take Profit: 26.10 Stop loss: 29.25
Firstrand (FSR) We cut the trade early but original TP reached
Gold Fields (GFI) Instrument: CFD / SSF Direction: Sell / Short Entry: 109.25 Take Profit: 96.00 Stop loss: 115.00
Gold Fields (GFI) We revised our TP but original TP reach
BATS (BTI) Instrument: CFD / SSF Direction: Buy / Long Entry: 438.50 Take Profit: 463.50 Stop loss: 428.50
BATS (BTI) SL triggered
Aspen (APN) Instrument: CFD / SSF Direction: Buy / Long Entry: 140.50 Take Profit: 150.00 Stop loss: 134.50
Aspen (APN) Moving sideways – key resistance broken today
Open trade Ideas 26.54%
Trade Spotlight • Stanbank(SBK) • Imperial(IPL) • Sasol (SOL) • Barloworld (BAW) ** morning trade idea • Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS)
Stanbank (SBK) Long / Buy – Break above 10650c
Imperial Holdings (IPL) Long / Buy Dividend – 380c
Sasol (SOL) Long / Buy – 36500c Long / Buy – 36500c Dividend in Oct (8/10/2012) for 1180c
Barloworld (BAW) Instrument: CFD / SSF Direction: Short / Sell Entry: 75.30 Take Profit: 70.50 Stop loss: 78.50
Tiger Brands (TBS) Long / Buy
Fundamentals & Share picks PSG Online
MTN Group (MTN) (Highlights) • Market Capitalisation = R298.224-million (12/09/2012) • Revenue grew 17% to R66.4-billion • Total subscriber base increased by 6.9% to 176-million. • Airtime & subscription revenue grew by 12.5% • Remains biggest contributor to total revenue at 63.2% (2011: 66%) • Data revenue increased by 69.6% • Contributed 10% (2011: 7%) to group revenue • SMS revenue grew 25.4% • Headline earnings & HEPS grew by 14% to R9.9-billion, and 537.4 cents respectively. • Net dividend (After DWT)of 276.61 cps • Dividend Yield = 5.3%
Sasol (SOL) (Highlights) • Market Capitalisation = R238.666-million (12/09/2012) • Revenue grew 19% to R169-billion • Average crude oil & product prices increased by 17% • Rand/ USD weakened by 11% • Headline earnings grew by 25% to R25.5-billion • HEPS improved by 19% from 3385 cents to 4228 cents. • Final dividend (After DWT) of 1004.3 cps • Dividend Yield = 4.7%
Cashbuild (CSB) (Highlights) • Market Capitalisation = R3.862-million (21/09/2012) • Revenue grew 11% to R6.3-billion • Headline earnings grew by 26% • Basic EPS jumped 91% higher to 1257.5 cents • Net dividend (After DWT)of 232.05 cps • 96% higher • Dividend Yield = 3.6%
Peregrine (PGR) (Highlights) • Market Capitalisation = R2.576-million (05/09/2012) • Operating revenue grew 4% to R1.5-billion • HEPS increased by 12% from 139.5 cents to 156.3 cents • Final dividend of 72 cps (106% higher) • Distribution of 3.5 CIL shares for every 100 PGR shares • Dividend Yield = 6%
Foneworx (FWX) (Highlights) • Market Capitalisation = R245-million (14/09/2012) • Revenue grew 8% to R98.6-million • Headline earnings grew by 15% to R22.4-million • HEPS increased by 14% to 16.52 cents • Year-end dividend will be declared at a later date
Summary: Fundamental Picks • MTN Group (MTN) • Buy • Sasol (SOL) • Buy • Cashbuild (CSB) • Hold • Peregrine (PGR) • Buy LT • Foneworx (FWX) • Spec Buy
Conclusion • Fundamental Analysis • Value & Quality • Simple Trend Analysis • Price Action / Support & Resistance • Overbought / Oversold levels • Money Matters presentation on FaceBook! • Facebook • Like! Like! Like! • Comments! • Next Money Matters Meeting: • Tuesday, 30 October 2012 • Good Luck & Happy Trading!