Wind Energy: Status and Future

1. Tom Williams NREL Wind Energy: Status and Future FLC Mid-Continent Regional Meeting September 2005

2. Topics • NREL • Market Drivers for Renewable Energy • Wind Energy Markets Today • R&D and Future Prospects for Wind

3. National Renewable Energy Laboratory • Only national laboratorydedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D • Research spans fundamental science to technology solutions • Collaboration with industry and university partners is a hallmark • Research programs linkedto market opportunities

4. Major NREL Program Areas Supply Side Wind Energy Solar Energy Biomass/Biofuels Energy Systems Geothermal Technology Hydrogen Research Electric Energy Systems and Storage Demand Side Transportation Buildings Technology Industry Federal Energy Management Cross Cutting Office of Science Analytical Studies International Resource Assessment

5. National Wind Technology Center Built in 1981 as the Small Wind Test Center on 280 acres Dedicated as the National Wind Technology Center in 1994 • Today the NWTC is a world class state-of-the-art research facility on 305 acres testing advanced wind turbine technologies

6. Topics • NREL • Market Drivers for Renewable Energy • Wind Energy Markets Today • R&D and Future Prospects for Wind

7. Atmospheric Concentration of CO2 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (PPMV) Year Source: Adapted from W.M. Post, T.H. Peng, W.R. Emanuel, A.W. King, V.H. Dale, and D. DeAngelis. American Scientist, 1990. “The Global Carbon Cycle.”

8. Saudi Arabia 26% Iraq 11% Kuwait 10% Iran 9% UAE 8% Venezuela 6% Russia 5% Mexico 3% Libya 3% China 3% Nigeria 2% U.S. 2% U.S. 26% Japan 7% China 6% Germany 4% Russia 3% S. Korea 3% France 3% Italy 3% Mexico 3% Brazil 3% Canada 3% India 3% U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil Have Oil Use Oil The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined. Updated August 2002 Source: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), Tables 1.2 and 8.1.

9. 10 8 6 Billions 4 Developing Countries 2 Industrial Countries 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 World Population Growth, 1750-2100 Source: Population Reference Bureau

10. The World Needs Clean, Low-Cost Energy 100 Affluence Japan France United States United Kingdom 10 Mexico South Korea GDP Per Capita ($000/person) El Salvador Russia Poland 1 Poverty China Bangladesh Ethiopia 0.1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 Energy Consumption Per Capita (MMBTU/person) Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 1998 Tables E1, B1, B2; Mike Grillot, 5/17/00 Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 1997 in 1990 dollars. Energy Consumption per capita is 1997.

11. Long-Term Drivers for Renewable Energy • Environmental • Greenhouse gas emissions • Other environmental impacts (air quality, acid rain, land use, water use) • National Energy Security • Reduce dependency on imported oil (political and economic risk) • Social and Political • Energy necessary to reduce gap between developed and developing world • World political pressure • Economic • Least-cost energy solution • Reduced price uncertainty • Grid optimization

12. Topics • NREL • Market Drivers for Renewable Energy • Wind Energy Markets Today • R&D and Future Prospects for Wind

13. U.S. Energy Consumption by source - 1850-1999 Non-hydro Renewables Nuclear Natural Gas Hydro Crude Oil Wood Coal Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; 1950-1996, Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables. 1997-1999, Annual Energy Review 1999, Table F1b.

14. Actual Projected Rest of World Rest of World North America North America Europe Europe Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide Jan 2005 Cumulative MW =46,048 Rest of World = 5,147 North America = 7,241 Europe = 33,660 MW Installed Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2003 Windpower Monthly, January 2005 *NREL Estimate for 2005

15. Sizes and Applications • Small (10 kW) • Homes (Grid • connected) • Farms • Remote Applications • (e.g. battery changing, water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking) • Intermediate • (10-500 kW) • Village Power • Hybrid Systems • Distributed Power • Large (500 kW – 6 MW) • Central Station Wind Farms • Distributed Power • Offshore Wind Generation • Stations

17. United States Wind Power Capacity (MW) Maine 0.1 Washington 244 Vermont 6 Wisconsin 53 North Dakota 66 Montana 2 Minnesota 615 Oregon 259 Michigan 2 New Hampshire 0.1 South Dakota 44 Idaho 0.2 Massachusetts 1 Wyoming 285 New York 48 Iowa 632 Nebraska 20 Ohio 7 Utah 0.2 Illinois 81 Pennsylvania 129 Colorado 229 Kansas 114 West Virginia 66 California 2,096 Tennessee 29 Oklahoma 176 Arkansas 0.1 New Mexico 267 Texas 1,293 Alaska 1 6,770 MW as of 12/31/04 Hawaii 9

18. Topics • NREL • Market Drivers for Renewable Energy • Wind Energy Markets Today • R&D and Future Prospects for Wind

19. Reducing the Cost of Energy

20. DOE Goal for Utility Scale Wind Systems • Develop wind turbines capable of 3 cents/kWh on land and 5 cents offshore in Class 4 (13 mph) wind sites by 2012: • Making more wind sites available close to load centers • Increases the area for wind development by a factor of 20+ • Developing advanced wind technology for opening the U.S. offshore regions for wind development Trent Mesa, Texas

21. Offshore GE Wind Energy 3.6 MW Prototype Boeing 747-400 • Offshore GE 3.6 MW 104 meter rotor diameter • Offshore design requirementsconsidered from the outset: • Crane system for all components • Simplified installation • Helicopter platform

22. Clipper LWST Prototype 2.5 MW with 93 m Rotor

23. Offshore Wind Potential for New England Preliminary Data

24. Evolution To Deep Water Wind Turbines

25. Avian Interactions Research • Data suggest the most significant avian wind-turbine interaction problem in the U.S. is in the Altamont WRA. • There is no reason that avian issues should be a concern for future wind farm development; any potential problem should be identified and dealt with before micrositing occurs. • Two guidance documents have been adopted by the NWCC: (1) Permitting of Wind Energy Facilities, and (2) Metrics and Methods for Avian Studies. These two documents serve as guidance for siting and development of new wind farms in the U.S. • Facilities developed following these guidelines have not experienced significant avian impact issues. NREL Avian Library Available at: www.nrel.gov/wind/avian_lit.html

26. Collaborative Wildlife Research • National Wind Coordinating Committee • Bat & Wind Energy Collaborative Infrared Image of a Bat Flying Through a Wind Turbine Rotor Taken by Jason Horn, Boston University

27. A Future Vision for Wind Energy Future Land Based Electricity Path Transmission Barriers 2004 • LWST Turbines: • 3¢/kWh at 13mph • Electricity Market • 2012 Land Based LWST Large-Scale 2–5 MW Bulk Power Generator 4-6¢ at 15mph Cost & Regulatory Barriers Offshore Electricity Path • Offshore LWST Turbine: • 5 cents/kWh • Shallow/Deep water • Electricity Market • Higher wind Sites • 2012 and Beyond Offshore Turbines 5 MW and Larger • Land Based • Bulk Electricity • Wind Farms Cost & Infrastructure Barriers Advanced Applications Path • Custom Turbines: • Electricity • H2 production • Desalinate water • Storage • Multi-Market • 2030 and Beyond • Land or Sea Based: • Hydrogen • Clean Water Potential 20% of Electricity Market