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Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster

Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference 2011. Arkansas Economic Outlook. Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR November 2, 2011. Arkansas fared relatively well during the recession. Arkansas’ Experience.

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Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster

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  1. Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference 2011 Arkansas Economic Outlook Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR November 2, 2011

  2. Arkansas fared relatively well during the recession . . . Arkansas’ Experience . . . but the recovery has been faltering.

  3. Economic conditions in the U.S. and Arkansas appear to be deteriorating in 2011 … Waning consumer confidence Political uncertainty Gasoline price spike Spring storms and flooding, summer drought Arkansas’ Experience

  4. Topics • Output/GDP • Personal Income • Retail Sales • Real Estate • Labor Markets

  5. GDP by State, 2010 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  6. GDP by MSA Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  7. Personal Income

  8. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  9. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  10. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  11. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  12. Taxable Sales Constructed by the Institute for Economic Advancement using data on sales and use tax collections from the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration.

  13. Taxable Sales Source: Oil Price Information Service

  14. Taxable Sales Introducing: Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

  15. Taxable Sales Introducing: Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

  16. Taxable Sales Source: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Institute for Economic Advancement.

  17. Home Sales

  18. Home Sales

  19. Home Sales

  20. Home Prices Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

  21. Home Prices Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

  22. Home Prices Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

  23. Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  24. Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  25. Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  26. Employment Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Institute for Economic Advancement

  27. Unemployment Rates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  28. Unemployment Rates Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement.

  29. Economic Outlook "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." -Niels Bohr , Nobel prize-winning physicist.

  30. Real GDP

  31. Personal Income

  32. Sales

  33. Home Sales

  34. Employment

  35. Employment

  36. Employment Including expected revision in 2012

  37. Unemployment

  38. Unemployment

  39. Arkansas Economist For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist: www.arkansaseconomist.com

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