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Water Year 2012: Review of Water Supply Forecasts in the Colorado River Basin

Water Year 2012: Review of Water Supply Forecasts in the Colorado River Basin. CRFS November 14, 2012. Green River Basin. Upper Green. Dry everywhere Extreme dry conditions in Yampa, Duchesne. Yampa. Duchesne. Upper Green: Basin Conditions. 103%. 83%. 98%. FONTENELLE RESERVOIR.

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Water Year 2012: Review of Water Supply Forecasts in the Colorado River Basin

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  1. Water Year 2012:Review of Water Supply Forecastsin the Colorado River Basin CRFS November 14, 2012

  2. Green River Basin Upper Green • Dry everywhere • Extreme dry conditions in Yampa, Duchesne Yampa Duchesne

  3. Upper Green: Basin Conditions 103% 83% 98%

  4. FONTENELLE RESERVOIR 508 KAF 70% 2012 MAE Jan : 42 KAF Feb: 177 KAF Mar: 222 KAF Apr: 157 KAF May: 30 KAF June: 20 KAF

  5. FLAMING GORGE 570 KAF 58% 2012 MAE Jan : 190 KAF Feb: 310 KAF Mar: 375 KAF Apr: 240 KAF May: 64 KAF June: 11 KAF

  6. FLAMING GORGE LOCAL: (Flaming Gorge Inflow-Fontenelle Inflow) Observed Local 62 KAF/24% 4th Lowest ESP local too high….

  7. Yampa: Basin Conditions 80% 66% 52%

  8. Yampa nr Maybell #1 1977: 261 KAF #2 2002: 269 KAF #3 1934: 278 KAF #4 2012: 337 KAF 337 KAF 36% 2012 MAE Jan : 363 KAF Feb: 298 KAF Mar: 378 KAF Apr: 163 KAF May: 61 KAF June: 31 KAF

  9. All April-July Volumes are in bottom five of historical records!

  10. Duchesne: Basin Conditions 72% 67 % 53%

  11. Neola and Lake Fork 31KAF 47% 31 KAF 42% -Over forecast issues (~20-30% over forecast in May) -Same pattern at all points on the south slope of the Uintas 2012 MAE Jan : 25 KAF Feb: 21 KAF Mar: 21 KAF Apr: 19 KAF May: 13 KAF June: 5 KAF

  12. Upper Colorado Basin • Extreme dry Mainstem Gunnison Dolores

  13. Upper Colorado Mainstem Basin Conditions

  14. Colorado - Cameo 900 KAF 38% April Forecast

  15. Upper Colorado 2012 Volumes

  16. Gunnison Basin Conditions

  17. 2012: 206 KAF (31% of average)

  18. 2012: 120 KAF (41% of average)

  19. San Juan Basin • Dry, but not quite as extreme as further north

  20. San JuanBasin Conditions

  21. 2012: 230 KAF (55 % of average)

  22. Forecast Evolution Plot 2012: 107 KAF (55 % of average)

  23. Lake Powell

  24. Lake Powell Basin Conditions

  25. Lake Powell 5050 71% 3500 49% 2360 33% 2063 KAF 29% April Forecast

  26. 1128 KAF / 38% (#4 / 108) 1503 KAF / 34% (#2 / 32) 2063 KAF / 29% (#3 / 49) 375 KAF / 34% (#6 / 89)

  27. Lower Colorado Basin Virgin: Snowpack far behind average by mid January Snowpack melted out very early (order of weeks) April-June warmer than average and accelerated melt May and June very dry (finally saw precip in July) Salt-Verde: Generally dry for an extended period, particularly in Verde La Nina conditions – continued from last year Dry soil conditions entering the season Early season snowpack fizzled Weighted ESP was better guidance Virgin Phoenix dust storm

  28. WY12 Official ForecastsVirgin @ Virgin (VIRU1) SUMMARY: Early months: overforecast (especially January). As season progressed: Precip dried out; fcsts dropped. Fcsts issued in Apr, May, June: were closest to the volume that was eventually observed. Least Erroneous Official WY12 Fcst : May 81-10 AMJJ Average = 58.1 KAF 2012 AMJJ Observed = 26.5 KAF (46% AVG)

  29. SALT – ROOSEVELT: 2012 CBRFC-NRCS COORDINATED FORECASTS Progressive Forecast Period (Forecast Issue Date through May) Volume in kAF

  30. VERDE-HORSHOE: 2011 CBRFC-NRCS COORDINATED FORECASTS Progressive Forecast Period (Forecast Issue Date through May) Volume in kAF

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