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Aviation at a Crossroads? AGTA Annual Meeting Seattle, Wa September 22, 2009

Robert M. Peterson Technical Fellow. Aviation at a Crossroads? AGTA Annual Meeting Seattle, Wa September 22, 2009. Agenda. This afternoon’s tour logistics Current Market Outlook Challenges Airport Airside ATC/ATM Security Economics Environment Airport Landside Other Closing comment.

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Aviation at a Crossroads? AGTA Annual Meeting Seattle, Wa September 22, 2009

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  1. Robert M. Peterson Technical Fellow Aviation at a Crossroads?AGTA Annual MeetingSeattle, WaSeptember 22, 2009

  2. Agenda • This afternoon’s tour logistics • Current Market Outlook • Challenges • Airport Airside • ATC/ATM • Security • Economics • Environment • Airport Landside • Other • Closing comment

  3. Factory Tour • Badges • No cameras • Approved shoes

  4. Shoes for the Everett Factory Floor Acceptable Not Acceptable Examples: Tennis shoes, closed heel clogs, casual and dress shoes that meet the “foot coverage” and “heel dimension” requirements. Examples: “Mary Janes”, Sandals, Crocs, “Sling-backs”, other casual and dress shoes that do NOT meet the “foot coverage” and “heel dimension” requirements. Summary of Requirements Add a Picture

  5. Where is commercial aviation in the US headed?

  6. 20-year forecast: strong long-term growth

  7. Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops World Index 1988=1.00 3.0 Air Travel Growth 2.5 Frequency Growth 2.0 Nonstop Markets 1.5 1.0 Average Airplane Size 0.5 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 All routes August OAG

  8. North American air travel growth varies by market Added Traffic 2008 - 2027 Annualgrowth % 2007 traffic 2.5 Within North America 4.6 North America to/from Europe 3.5 North America to/from Central America 3.2 North America to/from Northeast Asia 6.7 North America to/from South America Region’s AverageGrowth: 3.2% Region’s AverageGDP Growth: 2.4% 6.0 North America to/from China 6.7 North America to/from Southeast Asia 6.9 North America to/from Middle East 5.7 North America to/from Oceania 6.6 North America to/from Southwest Asia 7.4 North America to/from Africa 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 RPKs, billions

  9. North American airlines will need 7,690 new airplanes Market value: $680 billion Size category Large Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jet

  10. More than half of North America deliveries will be replacements Units 9,700 10,000 2,920 Growth 38% 8,000 6,780 6,000 7,690 4,770 Replacement 62% 4,000 2,000 2,010 Retained Fleet 0 2008 2028

  11. North American long-haul routes to nearly double

  12. North America forecast vs. backlog 7,690 New Airplane Deliveries 2009 to 2028 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 900 Airplane Backlog 2009 2,000 1,000 800 0 890 Regional jets 11% 5,630 Single-aisle 73% 1,130 Twin-aisle 15% 40 Large 1% 600 3 4 400 200 0 203 Twin-aisle 23% 661 Single-aisle 73% 12 Large 1% 27 Regional jets 3%

  13. North America – Top 10 Airports in 2007 Source: ACI

  14. Challenges – Airport Airside • Geography • Technology • Economics

  15. Challenges – ATC/ATM • Technology • Money • Politics

  16. Challenges – Security • 100% Cargo Screening (in passenger aircraft bellies) • Risk Management

  17. Challenges – Economics • Current Credit/Fiscal Crisis • Fuel Price volatility • Recession focuses government attention away from capacity for growth

  18. Challenges – Environment • What are the rules going to be? • How does aviation participate cost effectively?

  19. Challenges – Airport Landside • Local Transportation • Land Use • “Green”

  20. Challenges – Other

  21. Final Comments • Growth Will Return – When? • Are we in the middle of the “Perfect Storm?” • Will it set the industry onto a new course? • Will there be another one soon?

  22. The next Current Market Outlook • The 2009 version of the CMO is available on our website • http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html

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