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2013/14 Crop Market Outlook

2013/14 Crop Market Outlook. Northeast R&D Farm Fall Field Day Nashua, Iowa Aug. 28, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Corn Crop Rating.

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2013/14 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2013/14 Crop Market Outlook Northeast R&D Farm Fall Field Day Nashua, Iowa Aug. 28, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Corn Crop Rating

  5. Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Soybean Crop Rating

  8. Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  9. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  10. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  12. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  14. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  15. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  16. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  18. Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  19. Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  20. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  21. Ethanol Stocks

  22. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  23. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  24. Current Corn Futures 4.77 4.68 4.56 Source: CME Group, 8/27/2013

  25. Current Soybean Futures 12.77 11.42 10.82 Source: CME Group, 8/27/2013

  26. New Crop Prices

  27. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  28. Soy Prices vs. Costs

  29. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

  30. Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

  31. Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  32. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Can the new crop beat the summer heat? It had been so far, so good • Then can it beat the freeze? • New crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt • Corn demand rebounding? • Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?

  33. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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