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Implementation Plan for the WWRP Polar Prediction Project

This plan outlines the key objectives, strategies, and implementation schedule for the WWRP Polar Prediction Project, aiming to significantly improve weather and environmental predictions in polar regions. It includes research goals, governance and management, funding, and stakeholder engagement.

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Implementation Plan for the WWRP Polar Prediction Project

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  1. Implementation Plan for the WWRP Polar Prediction Project Thomas Jung, Steering Group Chair Neil Gordon, WMO Consultant November 2011

  2. Outline • Short overview: existing draft • Key project objectives • Agreement on overall structure and chapters

  3. Existing draft • Introduction • Mission statement • Benefits • Research plan goals • Strategies to achieve goals • Major campaigns • Governance and management • Financial plan • Implementation schedule • Contributing institutions and organisations • References • Abbreviations • Annexes

  4. Introduction • Motivation of the project • Increasing importance of the polar regions • Prediction capabilities required • Background and history • IPY and IPY legacy • Oslo workshop(s) • EC-PORS and GIPPS • Now we motivate the structure of the remaining plan • Project vision including key objectives and benefits • Primary research goals to achieve the vision • Strategies for achieving the goals

  5. Mission statement • Statement of the key objectives To be discussed later!

  6. Benefits • Highlight the benefits of the project • Who would be the beneficiaries? • What will the benefits be? (see also GIPPS) • Highlight that further research is necessary throughout the 10-year period (see research goals and strategy)

  7. Research goals: Detailed • SERA: Research and document user requirements and benefits of improved polar predictions • Verification: Establish and monitor verification metrics • Predictability and forecast error diagnosis (especially on longer time scales) • Lower-latitude impacts: Identify lower-latitude implications of forecast errors in polar regions • Physical and dynamical processes: Improve coupled modelling in polar regions • Ensemble forecasting: Representation of initial and model uncertainty • Data assimilation: Improve initialization strategies • Observations: Assess and promote required observational improvements/carry out field campaigns

  8. Strategies to achieve goals • Enhance international collaboration: Discuss fundamental need of collaborative efforts • Strengthen linkages between academia, research institutions and operational centres • Establish and exploit special research data sets: TIGGE, YOTC, reforecasts etc. • Promote interaction between research and stakeholders: stakeholder identification, engagement strategy etc. • Linkages with other initiatives: WCRP, EC-PORS etc. • Foster education efforts

  9. Major campaigns • Do we need such a special section? • One could argue that this is part of the observations part of the Research Plan Goals section • One could make this more wider in focus, though (e.g YOTC-like). Could still be moved

  10. Governance and Management • Governance linkages with WCRP, EC-PORS, THORPEX ICSC, WWRP JSC • How will the steering group operate? • Monitoring, review and evaluation • Stakeholder engagement • Establishment and hosting of a project office • Website • Terms of reference

  11. Funding • Funding for overall project management • Funding for research programme activities

  12. Implementation schedule • Extending over 10 years including milestones • Example of a milestone: mid-term review after 5 years.

  13. Other sections • Contributing institutions and organizations • References • Abbreviations • Annexes

  14. Key project objectives • Draft plan: “Significantly improved weather and environmental predictions in polar regions, on time scales from hours to months” • Improved prediction is central (user focused) • Top-down approach (funding agencies) • ICSC-9 document: “Provide a framework for cooperative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate, and environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions” • Another Option: Mentioning GIPPS explicitly (“Contribute to the development of the Global Integrated…”) • We could think of a combination of two

  15. Agreement on overall structure and chapters

  16. Thank you!

  17. Research goals • Improved understanding of user requirements? • Includes research into the communication of predictions (+uncertainty) • Establishing the status quo: How good are we? • Verification and reforecasts • Determining the limits: Especially for sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts • Potential predictability studies • Determining the gaps • Determine gap between potential and actual skill • Obvious gaps (e.g. lack of observations) • Objective techniques (origins of forecast error) • Filling the gaps

  18. What is an Implementation Plan? • An implementation plan helps selling a project • An implementation plan is a tool for efficient • management of a project and • monitoring of progress • An implementation plan describes how a project will be delivered • on time, • on budget, and • on expectations • Here our task will be to write an implementation plan for the coming 10 years.

  19. What it should/could incorporate • Clear statement of the goals of the WWRP-PPP • Benefits resulting from achieving these goals • Detailed plan how the goals will be achieved including • Deliverables and milestones, • An implementation schedule • Resource management • Funding • Risk management • Stakeholder engagement • Governance and accountability • Review, monitoring and evaluation • Additional information

  20. Defining the goals • Could be formulated in terms of a project vision • A good vision statement • Written in present tense (description of desired future) • Is short, concise and memorable • Can be understood by stakeholders • Vision statement must reflect • The key objectives • The underlying need or problem • Context including approvals to date (e.g. decisions by governing bodies)

  21. Benefits • Describe intended beneficiaries for each of the objectives • Benefits expected by specific objectives/deliverables • Monitoring and delivery of benefits • Benefits should be • Specific • Measurable • Achievable • Relevant • Time framed • Agreed

  22. Deliverables • List of all products and services to be delivered • For each deliverable • List milestones that need to be achieved • A milestone is an important check-point • Resources needed to achieve each deliverable • Explain what activities will be undertaken to deliver the project • Identify related activities (e.g. within CLIVAR) • What is done in the framework of the WWRP-PPP and what is done elsewhere? • Provide implementation schedule • What will be delivered when?

  23. Resource management • Managing resources is an issue since there is little control over resources (human and monetary) • Required expertise (e.g. steering group) • Budget/funding

  24. Risk management • Plan for and deal with uncertainty • Risk is an uncertain event that will have an influence on the achievements of project goals • Risk identification • Changing circumstances • Changes to the scope of the projects • Discussion with stakeholders • Risk planning • Development of a risk management plan

  25. Stakeholder engagement • Identifying and communicating effectively with those people or groups who have an influence or interest in the outcome of the project • Development of a Stakeholder Engagement Strategy • Stakeholder identification • Development of a Stakeholder engagement and communication plan

  26. Review, monitoring and evaluation • Review of progress at regular time intervals • Review conducted by WWRP-PPP steering group • Progress reports are presented to various committees.

  27. Writing of the Implementation Plan: Time table • November 2011: Work on the skeleton of the IP • Kick-off meeting: • Discussion of the structure of the IP • Identification of key topics • Identification of lead authors • Agreement on deadlines • Winter 2011/12: Writing of the IP • Spring and summer 2012: Presentation to various committees • Autumn 2012: Establishment of a project office

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