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National and State Trends for Natural Gas and Electricity Prices

National and State Trends for Natural Gas and Electricity Prices. Talina R. Mathews Department for Energy Development and Independence. Electricity. EIA forecasts that the average retail price of electricity across the US (adjusted for inflation) will remain nearly constant through 2035

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National and State Trends for Natural Gas and Electricity Prices

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  1. National and State Trends for Natural Gas and Electricity Prices Talina R. Mathews Department for Energy Development and Independence

  2. Electricity • EIA forecasts that the average retail price of electricity across the US (adjusted for inflation) will remain nearly constant through 2035 • There are key uncertainties when extrapolating this forecast to KY average retail electricity rates • Age of plants • Portfolio mix • Environmental regulations (even without GHG discussion)

  3. US Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2009

  4. '11 '12 '13 '16 '15 '17 '08 '09 '10 '14 EPA actions will dramatically impact the future viability of coal generation Ozone SO2/NO2 CAIR Water Beginning CAIR Phase I Seasonal NOx Cap SO2 Primary NAAQS Revised Ozone NAAQS Reconsidered Ozone NAAQS Effluent Guidelines Final rule expected Effluent Guidelines Compliance 3-5 yrs after final rule Proposed Transport Rule SO2/NO2 Secondary NAAQS Next Ozone NAAQS Revision Final Transport Rule Expected CAIR Vacated 316(b) Compliance 3-4 yrs after final rule Effluent Guidelines proposed rule expected 316(b) final rule expected CAIR Remanded NO2 Primary NAAQS CO2 Regulation PM-2.5 SIPs due (‘06) Begin CAIR Phase I Annual SO2 Cap PM-2.5 SIPs due (‘97) Next PM-2.5 NAAQS Revision Beginning CAIR Phase II Annual SO2 & NOx Caps Begin CAIR Phase I Annual NOx Cap Final Rule for CCRs Mgmt New PM-2.5 NAAQS Designations Beginning CAIR Phase II Seasonal NOx Cap CAMR & Delisting Rule vacated HAPS MACT final rule expected Begin Compliance Requirements under Final CCR Rule (ground water monitoring, double monitors, closure, dry ash conversion) HAPS MACT Compliance 3 yrs after final rule Compliance with Transport Rule HAPs MACT proposed rule Proposed Rule for CCRs Management Final EPA Nonattainment Designations 316(b) proposed rule expected PM2.5 Ash Hg/HAPS CO2 8 Source: EPA/EEI/AEP

  5. Natural Gas • EIA estimates are decrease in price then slow rise in natural gas price in residential sector through 2035 • Key uncertainties • How much will there be an increase in demand for natural gas generation of electricity because of increased environmental regulation of coal fired power plants? • Will the shale gas resource development be reduced by increased regulations?

  6. SHALE GAS RESOURCES

  7. Conclusion • Price trends at the state level for electricity and natural gas are not easily predicted due to massive uncertainties.

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