Naval Platform Control Systems: 2015 & Beyond

1. Naval Platform Control Systems: 2015 & Beyond Joseph Famme Rangesh Kasturi April 18, 1997 Note: This is a re-print of the 1997 slides used for the 11th International Naval Controls Conference presentation given by Joseph Famme, April 18, 1997, made by ITE Inc, www.ITEinc.US, jfamme@ITEinc.US Please see text of the associated technical paper given at the University of Southampton, UK Mr. Famme is now President of ITE Inc. Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

2. Time and Change • Ten Years+ to design and build a ship for 30+ years service • The World keeps changing ! • The Technology keeps changing ! Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

3. Population & Naval Manpower The Life of Our Ship All these people ... and not enough for our navies ! Population Reference Bureau, United Nations World Bank 1996 Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

4. Population & Oil Production Oil Data: University of Colorado, School of Geology 1996 Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

5. Population & Economics • Is it true that economic competition pulls the trigger? • Should defense readiness be increasing or decreasing? • What are the implications for the naval profession? Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

6. Agrarian Age to Quantum Mechanics? • Agrarian Age • Industrial Revolution • Information Age • Quantum Mechanics • ?????Each Age Cycle gets shorter ….. • How will we address the unknowable? Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

7. Chaos Theory • The fast pace of change challenges the social fabric • Economic disparities could pull the trigger • Not every one plays by the rules ? Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

8. Violent and Surprise Threats • New levels of international cooperation required • For all people, not just military units: • Continuous alert and readiness • Instantaneous response Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

9. Technology • For Us … equals, for them ! • Advanced hardware & software • Advanced Virtual Reality • With a new name ! • Personnel monitoring / communications • Laser weapons Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

10. Ship Forms: Back to the Future • 1870: Jules Verne, “20,000 Leagues Under the Sea” • 1910: The Great White Fleet • 1997: High Speed Ships for the new electronics! Not like this ... Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

11. ... New (old) Hulls Forms! Ship speed: 50+ knots ! All these people ... and not enough for our navies ! Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

12. Tonnage: 33Kts & 100k HP Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

13. Fuel for 21st Century Ships • Speed • Fuel demand • ………..Fuel (Oil) ………………..available Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

14. Computation Power - Life of Ship • Ship design and service life may span 50 years • The computation power will increase by several orders of magnitude • How do we plan? • How do we educate our children? Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

15. Bandwidth: The New Frontier • The next major driver for technology advance • Mr. Gilder says we haven’t seen anything yet • Everyone can be connected • Ubiquitous computing! • As if we were in the 1700’s and discussing space flight … who would believe us? Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

16. Controls 2015 & Beyond • Intelligent Sensors • MEMS • Intelligent Automated Actuators • Virtual Situational Awareness • Remote control • 1/10th crew • Ubiquitous computing • All persons - all equipment Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

17. Cooperative Support Capability • CEC to CSC !!!! • Equipment sensors will become fully intelligent • sense own temp / pressures … • perform own condition assessment • report own condition • permit equipment to cooperate with other equipment • support equipment that is mal-performing • modify operation to support platform goals and constraints Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

18. Platform Operator Associate • Equipment / sensors system will use AI enhancement to support human objectives (goals) while conforming to directed constraints • Current DARPA program Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

19. Smart Pumps Transceiver Pump A Pump B Pump X Pump C Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

20. Technology Summary • We don’t know … can’t know • Who in the 1940s saw SPY-1 radar and Cooperative Engagement - in full automatic? • Let’s try to guess ... Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

21. Future Controls • Requirements: • Performance • Total Battle Force (Theater) Systems • Total Automation • Damage Control • Human Factors Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

22. Performance • Speed is everything • Stealth adds time, sometimes Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

23. Battle Force Systems • Everything and everyone is connected • Speed is everything • Humans are a liability … except for their strategic thinking ability Humans - Stay Home! Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

24. Human Factors • Humans are: • IntelligentBut … • Too weak • Too slow • Too vulnerable • Require enormous logistical and medical support Humans - Stay Home! Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

25. Damage Control • Passive … survivability built-in to the structure • large areas of inert space • no life support • Active … • adaptive and reactive systems • Remote and automated control • Decision aids Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

26. Why Humans at All? • Intelligence: • Strategy • Tactics • Intuition • Anticipation • Insight • Reflection • Lessons learned • Situational Awareness • Things computers don’t do well… as yet! Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

27. Conclusions • Ships will not have the nostalgia of the pre-21st century • Ships will not be glamorous fighting vehicles like space wars • Ships: just a node in world-wide defense system … Sorry ! it's not a ship anymore! Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003

28. Conclusions • But the few left will be: • Very, very FAST • Very, very high fire power • Worthy of our design and control systems It's not JUST a ship anymore Re-printed by the Author J Famme, August 2003