1 / 34

On the Nature of Global Change

On the Nature of Global Change. Professor John Harrington, Jr. (jharrin@k-state.edu) Department of Geography, Kansas State University Planet Under Pressure Mar 2012 London International Conference on Adaptation May 2012 Tucson

thao
Download Presentation

On the Nature of Global Change

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. On the Nature of Global Change Professor John Harrington, Jr. (jharrin@k-state.edu) Department of Geography, Kansas State University Planet Under Pressure Mar 2012 London International Conference on Adaptation May 2012 Tucson Climate Change: Impacts & Responses Jul 2012 Seattle

  2. Unprecedented Types, Rates, Scales, Combinations, and the Magnitude of ChangePlanetary Destabilization 2004 “… the Earth system is now operating in a ‘no-analogue state’.”

  3. Climate change is part of something bigger Symptoms of human induced global change:- warming- rapid change in surface appearance (LUCC)- changes in chemical indicators (nitrogen)- change in gaseous composition (atmos)- loss of key biotic components - new organisms have been introduced - rapid depletion of stored reserves (water)- rapid depletion of stored reserves (energy)- the rate of change is increasing 1973 1999

  4. Global Change • Global climate change (CO2 & global weirding) • Air pollution (gross insults & micro toxicity) • Shrinking glaciers & loss of Arctic sea ice • Population growth and resource consumption • Land use change – deforestation for agric. • Water resources (reservoirs & irrigation) • Ocean acidification, sea level rise, coral reefs • Loss of biodiversity (major extinction event) • New ideas to hopefully change the conversation • Ecological Footprints and Overshoot (1.5 Earths) • Ecosystem services (externalities and “the commons”) • Sustainability Science Vulnerability, Resilience • Planetary Boundaries The Anthropocene • Planetary Stewardship The Wildland Garden • Earth Hour (late March)

  5. The more you read in this subject area, the more you understand the multiple connections, the complexity, and just how hard it will be to make the changes needed for a sustainable transition

  6. Oxfam 2012

  7. CO2 levels are now at 394 ppm (up 39.6%) CO2 levels were at 315ppm at the start of the Mauna Loa record. The CO2 level for pre-industrial times was 280 ppm. • Annual cycle – driven • by summer vegetation greenup in the Northern Hemisphere • Lower values at the • end of the growing • season

  8. Understanding the Earth system (feedbacks and response times) indicates that there is more to come

  9. Warmer areas on Earth will emit slightly shorter wavelengths and water vapor is the main GHG • Cooler areas on Earth will emit slightly longer wavelength energy and CO2 is the main GHG

  10. Global pattern of temperature anomalies for 2000-2009 compared with the 1950-1980 base period. More CO2 and cold places warm up.

  11. Images of change in alpine glacial ice from Africa and North America Mount Kilimanjaro Glacier National Park

  12. The loss of Arctic Sea ice.

  13. The loss of Arctic Sea ice.

  14. Human Dimensions of Global ChangeLand Use Change More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850. Cultivated Systems in 2000 cover 25% of the terrestrial surface

  15. Unprecedented Change: Biomes

  16. Land use change different directions in different regions Ecosystems in some regions are returning to conditions similar to their pre-conversion states • Rates of ecosystem conversion remain high or are increasing for specific ecosystems and regions

  17. “The Human Footprint and the Last of the Wild”E. Sanderson et al. 2002 BioScienceLast Child in the Woods There is a human footprint on 83% of the land.

  18. Anthropogenic Biomes of the World *Mosaic: >25% tree cover mixed with > 25% pasture and/or cropland * Ellis & Ramankutty

  19. 5 to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies (low to medium certainty) 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty) Changes in Water Resources

  20. A period of rapid and unprecedented global change The pace of growth is slowing The Green Revolution: genetics, fertilizer, tractors, & irrigation “turning oil into food”

  21. Made it in Oct 2011 How do we feed the next 2 billion?

  22. Consilience = a fancy way to describe how science is changing • E.O. Wilson’s 1999 book, Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge - provided a powerful restatement of the importance of linking major areas of scholarly thought • C.P Snow’s 1959 lecture: The Two Cultures - major thesis was: that the breakdown in communication between the sciences and the humanities was a major barrier to solving the world's problems Four cultures: new synergies for engaging society, MC Nisbet et al., 2010, Frontiers in Ecology. Vol 8(6): 329-331.

  23. Consilience: Biocomplexity • Biocomplexity = the study of complex structures and behaviors that arise from nonlinear interactions of biotic agents and abiotic factors, across multiple scales • Biocomplexity was introduced as a new initiative at NSF for funding integrative projects in the late 1990s by Rita Colwell • Rita Colwell was NSF Director from 1998 – 2004 The role of women in scientific discourse is critically important

  24. Reciprocal Effects & Feedback Loops Nonlinearity and Thresholds Surprises Legacy Effects and Time Lags Resilience Heterogeneity New framings and new questions

  25. NSF now has SEES Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability • Achieving a sustainable human future in the face of both gradual and abrupt environmental change is one of the most significant challenges facing humanity • All eleven NSF Directorates and Offices have joined together to support Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability (SEES) • Requests for proposals in: “sustainable chemistry”

  26. “… sole authors did produce the papers of singular distinction in science and engineering and social science in the 1950s, but the mantle of extraordinarily cited work has passed to teams by 2000.” (p. 1038) It takes about a year of working together to establish a good team

  27. life supporting resources declining we are in what E.O. Wilson (in 2002) referred to as “the bottleneck” consumption of life supporting resources rising

  28. Can global leaders find a way to addressa long-term and global problem?Two ‘imperatives’ work against a solution The imperative of the present Topophilia = love of place; we need geophilia or gaiaphilia The imperative of the local “The relative indifference to the environment springs, I believe, from deep within human nature. The human brain evidently evolved to commit itself emotionally only to a small piece of geography, a limited band of kinsmen, and two or three generations into the future.” E.O. Wilson 2002

  29. Science and engineering enable new technologies that accompany changeThere is a need to move toward sustainability “To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” Buckminster Fuller “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.”Margaret Mead

More Related