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Services 2020 Transformation for the Future

Services 2020 Transformation for the Future. Dr. Jason Tuell Chief, Meteorological Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services 2010 MIC-HIC Conference. Overview. Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) Transformational Activities Change & Future Operations

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Services 2020 Transformation for the Future

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  1. Services 2020Transformation for the Future Dr. Jason TuellChief, Meteorological Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services 2010 MIC-HIC Conference

  2. Overview • Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) • Transformational Activities • Change & Future Operations • What Partners & Users Need • How we get there

  3. Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) • Create a core and unifying theme • Transform from product-centric to collaborative decision making and decision-support • Engage and serve a broader base of constituencies • Embed social and cultural context motivating desired action learning, and behavioral change of partners and users • Measure success as societal benefit • Protecting life and property • Promoting an environmentally literate Nation • Promoting economic productivity, sustainability and security Warnings & Forecasts Impact-based Decision Support Begin today to change how we do business

  4. Shift in Focus • Where we’re going • Real Impacts on Life • Benefit driven: economic productivity, health, sustainability... • Relevance of Decisions • Aware of social context: culture, politics, economics... • Enabling Decisions • Flexible and adaptive to needs • Both probabilistic and deterministic information Where we’ve been • Data • Forecasts • Warnings • Rigid & rule based thresholds We issue forecasts & warnings to support decisions We support decisions with forecasts, warnings & environmental information

  5. Greater access to NWS expertise and cross-organizational collaboration Improved & more relevant information for user needs Improved communication to support impact-based & user centric decisons Increasingly effective tools for data discovery, visualization and exploitation Easier use and integration with delivery in more uniform, intuitive, and standard formats Enhanced warnings with greater precision and lead time IDSS DriversWhat Users and Partners Need

  6. Strengthens service to primary users Extends service to broader constituencies Redefines “high impact” from customer view Adapts for more sophisticated risk-based decision-making Translates forecasts to integrate social science Advances service innovation with new tools for users Broadens engagement from local to global Promotes partnerships with broader public & private sector alliances IDSS-Driven Benefits Better Service to America

  7. Transformational Activities

  8. NextGen 101 • NextGen is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S. Air Transportation System in order to: • Increase capacity and reliability • Improve safety and security • Minimize the environmental impact of aviation NEXTGEN IS MORE THAN AVIATION!!!

  9. NextGen 101 • Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) • The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of delays are preventable with better access to betterweather information • “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.” • Total preventable impact: ~$19B/year

  10. NextGen 101Weather Vision • Major paradigm shift: • Multiple user, common weather picture • Consistent and reliable weather information • “4 Dimensional Data Cube”

  11. The 4D Data CubeA Conceptual Model

  12. What is the Single Authoritative Source? The 4D Single Authoritative Source (SAS): • Is a subset of the 4D Data Cube • Provides a common weather picturefor National Airspace System (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.) • Is the basis for all officialAir Traffic Management decisions in the FAA FAA recognizes NWS as the expert for the science and content of the SAS

  13. NextGen & Consistency • Meteorological consistency • Spatial in 3D • Temporal • User consistency • Getting the same weather information from both our public and aviation forecasts • Getting the same answer no matter how you access the data

  14. NextGen Production Requirements • Example: Terminal area forecasts (not just TAFs) updated every 15 min with 5 min time steps • Goal – Keep forecasts representative, accurate, consistent, reliable & up- to-date Today’s operations can’t meet these refresh rates!

  15. Transformational Concepts • 4D environmental data cube and web services • Single Authoritative Source • Higher spatial and temporal resolution of deterministic and probabilistic information • Challenge of adding value to gridded information in the face of shrinking production cycle • Growing integration of forecast and warning operations

  16. Transformational Activities Evolving Operations to Implement Impact-based Decision Support Services • Principles • How we do business • Who we do business with • Integrated services

  17. NWS Future OperationsPrinciples • Forecasters add value! • Digital information is essential to our future! • Less emphasis on grid editing • More users focus • Better 4D situational awareness • Community presence is even more essential!

  18. Impact-based Forecasts • “High Impact” is different for every user • Changes with locality, time and proximity • Forecasts that • Are clear, concise and intuitive • Incorporates cultural and socio-economic context • Convey uncertainty as required by users • Includes deterministic and probabilistic information • Are increasingly collaborative • Aid interdisciplinary decision making • Provide information that can be exploited by others Translates our best science & expertise to sustained societal benefits

  19. Where we spend our time Decision Support Scientific Interpretation Level of Effort Drawing/Writing/Editing Now 2013 2016 2020

  20. Integrated Environmental Services • Many new and enhanced services will require • Expertise from outside of NWS • Integration of air, weather, water, and climate data with non-traditional data sets • Staff will work & collaborate more with personnel from other: • NOAA Line Offices • Other Federal Agencies • Academia • Private Sector • International Partners

  21. What Users Need… • Expanding Service Needs • Surface Transportation • Integrated Water Forecasts • Climate

  22. Expanding Service NeedsSurface Transportation • Safety • 1.57M weather-related crashes/yr • 690,000 injuries/yr • 7,400 fatalities/yr • Mobility • Cost of congestion is $9.45B/yr (for 85 urban areas) • Causes 25% of non-recurrent delay on freeways • Productivity • Weather-related delay adds $3.4B/yr to freight costs The Road Weather Challenge Annually Based upon 10 year averages Sources: NOAA/NWS, USDOT/FHWA

  23. Surface TransportationLife Safety Impacts Fatalities on icy roads, Winter 2009-2010 It’s not just a northern issue!

  24. Expanding Service NeedsSurface Transportation • Increased dialog with State/Local DOT decision makers & the weather enterprise to improve safety & economic numbers • Impact-based forecasts for decision making • Improved services for elements such as: • Driver level visibility • Precipitation type, start/end time & amount • Integrate/exploit future mobile observations • Better utilize available road weather observations (including pavement temperatures) – from FHWA’s Clarus System (www.clarus-system.com)

  25. What Partners and Users Need … • New Services • Renewable Energy • Public Health • Ecosystems

  26. Emerging Service NeedsRenewable Energy • The onshore Renewable Wind Energy Industry is demanding improved services • Better characterization of the boundary layer • Improved accuracy/resolution in the turbine layer • New partnerships developing now • USDOE needs NOAA expertise to support wind energy • Wind industry to provide observations to support NWP Industry estimates that improved forecasts will save $3 – $10B/year in operating costs

  27. Emerging Service Needs Public Health Impacts • 30 to 50% of the population suffer adverse health impacts under certain weather conditions • Air quality impacts directly linked to 50,000 premature deaths annually from respiratory & cardiac disease • > $100B spent annually treating health impacts due to poor air quality • Climate impacts on human health • Changes in humidity (mold), UV radiation (skin cancer), precipitation, & temperature extremes • Seasonal trends: flu, malaria, dengue fever,… • Health agencies want partnerships • Center for Disease Control (May meeting) • National Institutes of Environmental Health Sciences • State/local health officials

  28. Emerging Service NeedsEcological Forecasting Ecosystem Services such as flood and storm protection, clean water supply, safe food, & healthy habitats contribute $Billions in economic activity, social and commercial benefit • Accurate weather, water & climate information is a critical driver for IDSS • QPF runoff... to maintain soil, water quality and food supply • Coastal winds and climatology... to predict toxic algal blooms, fish stock, and public safety • Air/Water temperature ... to forecast scenarios for pathogen progression and avoid illness

  29. Ecological Prediction in Chesapeake Bay:Demonstrations Current: Generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Jellyfish Next: Harmful algal blooms & Water-borne pathogens Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007 Predicted relative abundance of Karlodinium veneficum on August 17, 2007

  30. Services Roadmap • Service Challenges • IDSS Yesterday & Tomorrow

  31. The Way AheadServices Roadmap • Services Roadmap augments the NWS Strategic Plan • Services Roadmap defines the service evolution and transformation to 2020 • Goal: Version 1.0 Sept 2010 • Push-pull relationship with S&T Roadmap • Your contributions and inputs will be critical

  32. Transforming Services is Hard • Changes forecast process • Shifts focus from production generation to using our expertise to aid decision makers • Will change our corporate and individual identity as forecasters • Makes communications just as important as the science • Requires collaboration with traditional and non-traditional expertise • NOAA • Other Government Agencies • Private Sector and others

  33. Service Transformation Questions • What are we going to stop doing so we can deliver new services • Days 3-8? • CCF? • Manually editing zones? • How does IDSS change the relationship between the public and private weather enterprise? • What is the role of social science in IDSS? • How does NWS, from NCEP to RFCs to the WFOs, produce forecasts given the refresh rates to support NextGen and other new services?

  34. IDSS: Yesterday and Tomorrow Yesterday 2020

  35. Summary • Our Services Vision… • Impact-based Decision Support Services will become integral to our corporate identity • 4D environmental data cube enhances the delivery of services • NextGen alone drives transformation of NWS • Enhanced services drive societal and economic benefits • How we will get there… • Partnerships are essential • Your help, as leaders and change agents, to drive transformation • It starts at this conference • Our culture of service, innovation and passion for the science can overcome the tough challenges ahead

  36. Back up

  37. Surface TransportationEconomic Impacts

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