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Prediction Market prototype V1

Prediction Market prototype V1. Information Management Unit (IMU) Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS). Table of Contents. Tool overview Recommended validation methodology User engagement and training requirements. Tool Overview 1/4.

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Prediction Market prototype V1

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  1. Prediction Market prototype V1 Information Management Unit (IMU) Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS)

  2. Table of Contents Tool overview Recommended validation methodology User engagement and training requirements

  3. Tool Overview 1/4 • Idem explores a new paradigm for broad participation of knowledge workers in the evaluation of innovative ideas. • People can put their ideas on internal prediction markets (PMs) and thereby explore and participate in a collaborative evaluation process. • The participants can bet on the future success of ideas using virtual stocks representing future events whose price is a function of transactions representing individual probability-estimates of the event happening. • The result is a prediction market that aggregates knowledge from many individuals in order to involve a broad base of insight in the evaluation of new ideas and concepts. • Users are motivated by winning, teams are encouraged to transfer knowledge and organizations profit from a collaborative evaluation harnessing the “wisdom of crowds”

  4. Tool Overview 2/4 • Evaluation of ideas • Generation of ideas • Explicit feedback for ideas • Idea Markets offer an intuitive and game like approach to the problem of generating and evaluating ideas • Compared to other tools, IDeM supports explicit feedback in terms of comments, ratings, enhancements for ideas

  5. Tool Overview 3/4

  6. Tool Overview 4/4 • IDeM is targeted to a large range of industries including: • Local and regional authorities and public administrations • Regional centers and development agencies • Industrial associations • Enterprises (large and SMEs) • Prerequisites are: • A culture of innovation • And/or the will to exploit the collective intelligence of employees or other members • And/or the urge to participate in open innovation processes • The chief of innovation management (decision maker) in Alpha corporation wishes to evaluate a set of new product ideas and furthermore identify new ones • S/he creates a new market in which the contracts represent the new products • Company employees are invited to become traders • Once the market reaches equilibrium (trading stops or diminishes) the market closes • The trader(s) with the highest portfolio value(s) is rewarded • The market output - at its simplest form a ranked list of products - can assist the decision maker when making her/his final selection

  7. Table of Contents Tool overview Recommended validation methodology User engagement and training requirements

  8. Recommended Validation Methodology 1/2 • Overall Goal: • Testing of Idea Markets (IMs) as a tool for idea evaluation or as a tool for idea generation and evaluation • Preconditions: • Traders should be diverse, independent and decentralized and more than 20 • Ideas, rewards, session duration, operating hours, etc. remain fixed • Objectives: • 1.To evaluate validity of IM results • By statistically analyzing Idea Market logs • By comparing IMs’ results against other methods • e.g. surveys run by the Living Lab <input needed from Living Labs> • 2. To evaluate User Experience • Understand success factors for IM acceptance (e.g. motivation) • Evaluate market features, s/w usability, etc • Identify factors that affect investment decisions • (not traceable by statistical analysis e.g. idea description style, environment influences, etc)

  9. Recommended Validation Methodology 2/2 Software set-up Populate market with ideas (and their descriptions) Users’ training Run one or more sessions with a number of ideas (depends on the scenario and Living Lab but should be more than 10 - we aim to have as many traders and transactions as possible in every session) Traders and administrators fill-in questionnaires We conduct interviews with selected users and administrator Analyze market logs Run evaluation of same ideas with other method (or use already existing evaluation results of the same ideas)

  10. Table of Contents Tool overview Recommended validation methodology User engagement and training requirements

  11. User Engagement and Training Requirements • We intend to: • Guide the Living lab throughout the test • Provide online help during the configuration phase • Be involved in the evaluation of the tool in terms of participating in interviews with users, analyzing logs and data • Online documentation • Tutorials • Face to face sessions (related to user engagement)

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