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WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT RUSSIAN POLITICS?

WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT RUSSIAN POLITICS?. Why do the Russians have great power status? And why do countries care so much about that (different rules: UN , spheres of influence, hyper sovereignty)

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WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT RUSSIAN POLITICS?

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  1. WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT RUSSIAN POLITICS? Why do the Russians have great power status? And why do countries care so much about that (different rules: UN , spheres of influence, hyper sovereignty) What can Russia tell us about the nature of “communism” in practice? (Maybe it’s just a better seen as a case of “totalitarianism”) What can Russia tell us about the capitalist model for “late” developers? Wh was it a viable counter model to the US for decades? What legacies did socialist Russia have for democratic socialism in Europe? What can Russia tell us about our own processes of enemy formation and nationalism? What can it tell us about how totalitarianism evolves into authoritarianism? What can it tell us about what authoritarian states need to survive and prosper? What can it tell us about the stability of multi-national states before and after democratization? What about ethnic violence in the process? What can Russia tell us about the challenges of consolidating democracy? About building a democratic political culture? About the use of democratic institutions? About the “curse” of oil? Why does it matter whether a country is run by “communists,” oligarchs, siloviki, or criminal organizations? And which one best describes Russia today? Some data on Russia…

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  3. SOME EARLY HISTORY THAT MATTERS FOR UNDERSTANDING RUSSIAN PRIORITIES Why do Russians like strong leaders? Functionalism and Maslow vs. “Live free or die!” (11 time zones, 14 neighbors, geography, & winter…1/2 US pop; 1/3 EU) Ivan the Terrible: (1553-84)… Consolidation of the territory after two centuries of Mongol tyranny leads to absolute monarchy under a Tsar (Caesar). Peter the Great (1682-1725): Copies the west’s industries and monarchial federalism with mixed results (You have the split bw Westernizers vs. Slavophiles… a divide that still exists today in some ways) Russia’s bad habit of starting wars it shouldn’t: The Crimean War (1854) and losses to FR and GB lead to Russia’s very late development… Parallels with Germany? The 1904-05 war with Japan over exploiting China… How embarrassing, but it creates an opening for political change and splits elites; “Revolution of 1905” leads to the Duma. WWI and the February 1917 “revolution”: Remember that pro-western, “provisional governments” usually have a terrible time in societies that aren’t ready for democratization October 1917: the Bolshevik Revolution leads to the 1917-1921 Civil War V.I. Lenin on democratic centralism & “War communism.” Could things have turned out very differently as communist apologists sometimes liked argue? Stalin vs. Trotsky: Why did Russia end up picking the totalitarian even though Lenin said not to?

  4. WHAT INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE DID COMMUNIST USSR HAVE? In what sense was Stalin’s Russia totalitarian? Why was Russia less so after his rule ended? (Remember what your text chapter on totalitarianism says about these systems: they difficult to perpetuate over time, especially if the cult-like leader dies) The communist economic system: A command economy & 5-year Plans. The first in agriculture resulted in 7 million dying from starvation. New parallel political structures: The relationship between the Communist party and the Russian state An unusually closed party/state/economic elite: the Nomenklaturaand purges (1 million insiders murdered) Mostly shared political power: The Secretariat and the Politburo… After Stalin, there was balance Feedback and dissemination (but not democratic) institutions: The Central Committee and some type of general party assembly exists in most communist societies

  5. RUSSIA’S TRANSITION FROM TOTALITARIANISM TO AUTHOR. Nikita Khrushchev (1955-1964): Not as bad as we thought at the time? Brezhnev (1964-1982): An authoritarian who consolidated authoritarianism by the normal methods of patronage… but he didn’t create elite rotation or build on Stalin’s modernization Mikhail Gorbachev (1985-1991): A real reformer? (Not at first) Glasnost Perestroika His version of “democracy”: Chinese style competition but nothing in the way mass accountability Why was he really nicer with the west than previous Russians? Why did he let the Warsaw Pact countries go? (1989) Why did he let the USSR implode? Why did he hand power over to Boris Yeltsin (1991 coup by conservatives)? The 1993 uprising/coup (by legislators) and Yeltsin’s counter coup How did the US react to all of this? Missed opportunities (Hat tip to GHW Bush, Not so much to Clinton) What legacies did Yeltsin leave? Why do first democrats matter so much? What can Russia tell us about trying economic shock therapy and democratization at the same time? How did power pass to Putin, the former head of the FSB? How and why did Putin institutionalize very soft authoritarianism?

  6. WHO HAS POLITICAL POWER IN TODAY’S RUSSIA? The Constitution: Why was it rewritten in 1993 rather than 1991? Who wrote it? Why didn’t it fundamentally change the system away from authoritarianism? Russia has a surprisingly rich Bill of Rights, but why don’t they enforce it?: http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-03.htm It looks like a French-style, mixed presidency/parliament system on paper, but is it? More to come on this point Its electoral system looks a lot like Germany’s but with key differences… more to come on this, too Why does Russia have federalism?: 89 Regions, 21 Republics, 52 Oblasts

  7. HOW DOES RUSSIAN “DEMOCRACY” WORK? WHAT IS THE DUMA (Lower House)? It’s a joke The basic structure of the Duma: 450 members, 5-year terms (was SMD, then a Germ mixed elect sys., then a natl. PR w/ 5% threshold… then PR w/ 7%... Now mixed system again)… Whatever it takes to keep United Russia in the majority. Its powers on paper look a lot like ours: Approves legislation, overrides vetoes, can initiate legislation… but in reality only Putin’s party matters What does the PM do? Manages what pres doesn’t want to do; introduces pres. agenda Why is this position presidentially appointed? Why does it have a cabinet of bureaucrats rather than leg peers? Can the Duma fire or reject PMs like a normal parliament? Yes, but pres can respond with new Duma elections WHAT ABOUT THE FEDERAL COUNCIL? (THE RUSSIAN SENATE) Its basic structure: 2 reps per region/republic = 166 members; one selected by state governors, one by state legislatures… But president can reject choices Who selects the governors? Since 2004, the national president (with approval by each state legislature) Powers: it can stop legislation, but can be over-ridden by 2/3 of the Duma ; It approves pres appointments to Russian Constit. Court

  8. WHO IS MOST POWERFUL? THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENCY Directly-elected, two-ballot system, with 2, 6-yr terms. Putin did 2 4-year terms, but gets up to 20 years in pres. because of “new” provisions. What are the main powers? Select the PM and the Constitutional Court Controls army, FSB (interior police + KGB); Issues biding Presidential decrees, & vetoes (can be over-ridden by 2/3 of the multiparty Duma) Selects regional governors Why no vice-president or meaningful impeachment process? OTHER POWER CENTERS The Constitutional Court: Lots of formal powers, including “abstract” judicial review, but who dares to use it? Organized crime and the oligarchs are now giving way to the security forces (the siloviki, especially those in Putin’s clique)

  9. WHY NO DEMOCRACY IN RUSSIA? Why are constitutional moments so important? First leaders really matter: Yeltsin, Putin, & the creation of super-presidentialism Simultaneous economic and political reform: Is it a good idea? Does no civil society mean you probably have no civil liberties? Does Russia have a democratic political culture? Is it more important to first build a coherent party system? Perhaps the PRI (Mexico) or the CCP (China) is Putin’s goal since Russia emerged from the USSR without coherent parties Why aren’t oligarchs, oil, and democracy aren’t a good mix? How does Putin “manage” democracy—that is stay in power even with elections? “It uses the pol. technologies of the 21st C. to sustain a polical sys of governance that dates from the 16th C.”) The decay and resurgence of Russian imperialism. What do Russians really want? How is Russia using force to challenge the concept of democracy in E. Europe and abroad?

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