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Predictive Systems (A Philosophical Approach) and APWS Alarm Optimization Module

Predictive Systems (A Philosophical Approach) and APWS Alarm Optimization Module. Contents. RULE #1 What is a Predictive System ? Predictive Systems Examples Properties of Predictive Systems Problematic Parts in Predictive Systems Optimization of Predictive Systems

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Predictive Systems (A Philosophical Approach) and APWS Alarm Optimization Module

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  1. Predictive Systems (A Philosophical Approach)andAPWS Alarm Optimization Module

  2. Contents • RULE #1 • What is a Predictive System ? • Predictive Systems Examples • Properties of Predictive Systems • Problematic Parts in Predictive Systems • Optimization of Predictive Systems • APWS Alarm Optimization Module • RULE #n – Last Rule

  3. RULE #1 FUTURE CAN NOT BE PREDICTED

  4. What is a Predictive System ? • Systems, which TRY to predict the future and set an alarm or warning using rules of mathematical or other scientific operations, are called Predictive Systems. • Static Predictive Systems (Expert Systems) • Dynamic Predictive Systems (able-to-learn Systems)

  5. Predictive Systems Examples

  6. Properties of Predictive Systems • Consistent • Stable • Determined • Tested in the matrix • Applicable • Measurable • Fit in user’s requests and realities • Optimized • Dynamic • Smart • Intelligent

  7. Problematic Parts in Predictive Systems • Optimization • Intelligence • Timing of taking action • Costs of hidden parameters

  8. Optimization of Predictive Systems Changing parameters of the system to take the best response Optimization = Localization in reality this means believing in characterization

  9. APWS Alarm Optimization Module

  10. APWS Alarm Optimization Module for a specific alarm for all values of coefficient between 0.1 and 100 step 0.1 find # of real alarms/# of all alarms set coefficient to coefficient that has the biggest ratio

  11. RULE #n – Last Rule • Key is; the word: “SYSTEM” not the properties of the SYSTEM • Properties only affect the performance • LAST RULE is: DO NOT LOOSE YOUR VISION

  12. ThanksHakan YÜKSELTO-Performance&Quality-CN-MSIP

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