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The state of messaging in the marketplace and the implications of the transition to IP messaging

The state of messaging in the marketplace and the implications of the transition to IP messaging. An interview presentation prepared for AT&T by Abbot Moffat November 2011. Agenda. Introduction Messaging today Opportunities with IP Messaging Risks with IP Messaging Conclusions

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The state of messaging in the marketplace and the implications of the transition to IP messaging

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  1. The state of messaging in the marketplace and the implications of the transition to IP messaging An interview presentation prepared for AT&T by Abbot Moffat November 2011

  2. Agenda • Introduction • Messaging today • Opportunities with IP Messaging • Risks with IP Messaging • Conclusions • Questions / Discussion

  3. Introduction • Abbot Moffat • Candidate for position on Paul O’Shaugnessy’s team • background • PC software (Microsoft, Lotus, start-ups) • Solar energy • about this presentation

  4. Which messaging topics? • Voice & Voicemail • SMS & MMS • Email • IM • PoC/PTT

  5. Messaging today - background Global mobile phone subscribers per country from 1990-2009. The growth in users has been exponential since they were first made available. Source: Wikipedia(modified by author)

  6. Messaging today - background Mobile phones in use by country, recent dataSource: Wikipedia

  7. Messaging today - background

  8. Messaging today – rough statistics Active mobile phones in US 328 M Wikipedia 6/2011 83% of US adults use mobile phones 260 M Pew Internet 8/201175% of US teens (12-17) own mobile phones 19 M Pew Internet 4/2010 80% of US is connected to the Internet 250 M US Census Bureau 2010 92% of US Internet users are on email 230 M US Census Bureau 2010 Send/receive on average >150 emails/user/day, Royal Pingdom 1/2011majority of received email is spam25% of email users are corporate, 110 emails/day, 18% spam Radicati 2010 75% of US adult mobile phone users use SMS/MMS 195 M Pew Internet 9/2011 average of 41 texts/user/dayvs. average of 10 voice calls/user/day 88% of teen mobile phone users use SMS/MSM 18 M Pew Internet 4/2010 46% of US Internet users use Instant Messaging 115 M US Census Bureau 2010 average 50+ messages/user/day Royal Pingdom 4/2010

  9. Messaging today Social web is biggest driver of messaging Users have many messaging choices, butmessaging is fragmented into separate silos • Each message type is accessed differently • Features like ability to save messages are inconsistent Email remains the most-used message type • Web-based email users declined 6% from 2009 to 2010 ComScore 1/2011 • Mobile-accessed email increased 36% in the same period SMS dominates messaging for mobile users • Roughly 2 to 1 over email, 4 to 1 over IMmobiThinking 7/2011 • CAGR has been ~100% for years, may be slowing Steven White 9/2010 MMS is driven by camera phones (photo & video) • Similar growth rate to SMSComverse 11/2009 • 50x to 60x fewer messages, 400x to 4000x more data IM is likely to grow. Seen as ‘free’ alternative to SMS • iMessageand similar offerings • Companies are offering support via IM

  10. Messaging trends Next billion Internet users will be on mobile devices • leap-frog computers to Internet-connected mobile devices Mobile users prefer browser-based activities mobiThinking 7/2011to dedicated apps (except for games) • consistent UX • perceived cost • adoption of HTML5 will accelerate this Social web will continue to drive usage & features • browser use • presence • group calling, IM • device forwarding

  11. What’s the difference with IP messaging? Goal for the customer experience: • no loss of current functionality (no difference) • new valuable services and features • always connected to ‘all my people, all my stuff, wherever I am’ • privacy / security concerns & mitigations For the operator • new infrastructure • mapping mobile phone numbers (identity) to IP addresses • everything is data • easier device integration, more kinds of devices • easier app/data integration, enabling 3rd-party developers • new / different security issues For the web • more people on the web • mobile-first page designs • reformatting tools, ‘on the fly’ auto-reformatting

  12. Opportunities with IP Messaging • Integration of content (it’s all data) • Universal inbox • email • voicemail • SMS / MMS / offline IM • initiate IM / video chat / voice • conversation storage • merged address book • Carrier as ISP, delivering ‘Internet dial-tone’ • Fixed Internet provider (solution to the ‘last ¼ mile’ problem) • Mobile Internet provider • Single trusted provider for all services: voice, data, Internet • Single billing • Single support • ‘All services - all devices’ account view • Cross-device parental/usage control

  13. Opportunities with IP Messaging ‘Native’ mobile phone text and multimedia messages actually use multi-protocol IM, fallback to SMS/MMS • also alerts and notifications Conversation hand-off between devices • Mobile phone to tablet or computer , voice to video chat • Computer to mobile device, interactive document sharing to voice Conversation delivered on multiple devices • IM on phone, share image or video on tablet or DNLA TV • Video chat on IP TV, document on tablet or IP/DNLA printer

  14. Risks with IP Messaging • Competition from other operators • New competitors – cable, DSL, ??? • New hardware, new issues • Old features may not map 1:1 onto new capabilities • leads to customer dissatisfaction • IP-based IM will displace SMS / MMS • revenue impact • embrace early to gain market share? • Time to market, time to market share will be key differentiators

  15. Conclusions Quality of Experience will be even more important than QoS Single provider for all services • Fixed voice & Internet • Mobile voice & Internet • with AT&T reliability • interoperating devices and integrated applications • Simplified ‘single account’ billing • Online account status / control = customer satisfaction & loyalty

  16. Questions / discussion ?

  17. Backup slides

  18. Who uses email? from Pew Internet

  19. Popular Internet activities from Pew Internet

  20. Email accounts vs. users from Radicati

  21. Email projections from Radicati Source: Radicati

  22. IM / IRC / Chat market share from billionsconnected Source: billionsconnected

  23. IM statistics for 2009 from Pingdom

  24. IM statistics for 2009 from Pingdom

  25. IM / IRC / Chat from the US Census Bureau

  26. SMS & MMS growth from Converse Note different scales for SMS & MMS Source: Converse

  27. Mobile behavior from mobiThinking

  28. Favorite mobile activities from mobiThinking

  29. Teen population from the US Census Bureau

  30. Teen mobile phone use from Pew Internet

  31. Teen mobile phone ownership from Pew Internet

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