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A Green Investment Study in Mauritius using System Dynamics Modelling Prakash ( Sanju ) Deenapanray ELIA – Ecological Living In Action, Mauritius & Andrea M. Bassi KnowlEdge Srl , Italy 4 October 2012. Outline of presentation. Why Systems Approach? System Dynamics Model of Mauritius

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Outline of presentation

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  1. A Green Investment Study in Mauritius using System Dynamics ModellingPrakash (Sanju) DeenapanrayELIA – Ecological Living In Action, Mauritius&Andrea M. BassiKnowlEdgeSrl, Italy4 October 2012

  2. Outline of presentation • Why Systems Approach? • System Dynamics Model of Mauritius • Selected Results of Model

  3. 1 Why Take a Systemic View Removing a problem, may create feedback and delays to ......

  4. To yield unintended consequences!

  5. What could be surprises in a GE? • Examples: • Can you have investments that increase social disparities? • Is it true that resource efficient technologies enhance social equity? • Social justice element of climate adaptation? • Can we use conventional indicators to track the GE? NEED A TOOL/METHOD/APPROACH TO GRAPPLE WITH THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE ‘SOCIETY-ECONOMY-ENVIRONMENT’ SYSTEM

  6. 2 Architecture: horizontal integration

  7. Population and Investment Loop

  8. What does SD Modelling Offer? • Checks consistency and feasibility of major objectives and assumptions (e.g. coherence between ‘low-carbon’, ‘resource efficiency’, ‘equity’ and ‘climate resilience!’) • Deepens analysis of policies and programs, across sectors and over time • Informs decision makers of longer-term implications of policy choices (better coordinated decision making) • Provides scenarios, not perfect projections • Allows for easy monitoring and evaluation (e.g. indicators/indices relevant to country of application, SDGs?)

  9. Structure of Mauritius model • Society: 4 modulesPopulation, Education, health care, roads • Economy: 5 modulesFirms, households, government, banks, energy bill • Environment: 3 modulesLand, water, air emissions • Energy: 22 modulesPrimary demand, final consumption, power supply, prices, investment, and more…

  10. INSIDE THE MODEL

  11. Two scenarios for analysis • Busines-as-usual: assumes that current trends will continue and existing policies will take their course • Green investment: simulates interventions in energy, transport, water and agriculture; assumes that about 1.1% of GDP will be invested in sectors starting from 2010 (transport 2.6%, agriculture 4.9%, energy efficiency 13.5%, renewable energy 36.7%, and water 42.2%)

  12. Energy (power & transport) • Power Demand (CEB projections as benchmark) • Energy Efficiency (10% by 2025) • Power Supply • CEB: fuel oil (30+60 MW and longer term investment), wind (22+20 MW), plus maintenance of existing plants to a large extent • IPP/SIPP: efficiency increase for bagasse use (600 GWh by 2013), waste (7MW), hydro (1MW), solar (1.5MW), maintenance of existing cogeneration plants • Transport (no light rail) • Efficiency of all road vehicles up by 20% by 2025 • Age of buses = 10 years by 2020 • Scrap rate of old vehicles is 5% in 2025 • subsidy of Rs5/vehicle/day to public transportation, and a congestion charge of Rs5/vehicle/day

  13. Agriculture • Doubling of the area cultivated for food crops by 2020 • Cost is assumed to equal the avoided value added from sugar production, $2,350 (or Rs 70,500) per ha per year Water • Increased water efficiency use by about 10% in 2040 (primarily in the residential sector and residential buildings) • Cost is assumed to be $0.02, or Rs 0.6, per cubic meter of water

  14. 3 Results of model – replication of selected historical data

  15. Population

  16. Real GDP

  17. Real GDP Growth Rate

  18. Total Energy Consumption (ktoe)

  19. Selected results of Green Investments 4

  20. Share of RE to Total Electricity

  21. Per Capita CO2 Emissions

  22. Energy Bill

  23. Economy-wide carbon intensity

  24. Food crop sufficiency

  25. Water Stress Index

  26. Key development indicators

  27. Job creation Power sector – 300 jobs per year between 2010 and 2040 (i.e. total of 9,000 jobs) despite the fact that renewable energy has relatively low labour intensity if technology and infrastructure are imported In the agriculture sector employment is projected to increase by about 17,000 jobs, with 2,000 being lost in sugar cane cultivation and sugar manufacturing, and 19,000 gained in food crops production

  28. Green investments would …. sustain GDP growth marginally and increase employment reduce GDP energy and carbon-intensity, reversing the growing trend of the latter increase the penetration of renewable energy avoid fuel import costs, indicating an economy-wide payback period of about 17 years reduce road congestion in and around Port Louis and support the transition to a more modern car and bus fleet reduce water stress, especially in the longer term, possibly avoiding losses in agriculture production and postponing critical water stress by almost 8 years support food security – i.e. reducing the dependence on food imports.

  29. ELIA – Ecological Living In ActionThank YouPrakash (Sanju) Deenapanray[sanju@ecolivinginaction.com]www.EcoLivingInAction.comMob: +230 924 3395

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