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Building on the Building Blocks: Possibilities and Pitfalls on the Road to Durban

Building on the Building Blocks: Possibilities and Pitfalls on the Road to Durban. Andrew Light Director, International Climate Policy, Center for American Progress & Associate Director, Institute for Philosophy and Public Policy, George Mason University. Building on the Building Blocks

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Building on the Building Blocks: Possibilities and Pitfalls on the Road to Durban

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  1. Building on the Building Blocks:Possibilities and Pitfalls on the Road to Durban Andrew Light Director, International Climate Policy, Center for American Progress & Associate Director, Institute for Philosophy and Public Policy, George Mason University

  2. Building on the Building Blocks • Climate Diplomacy • to Cancun • 2. Paths to Governance? • Kyoto vs. Copenhagen • 3. An Agenda for Durban

  3. 1. Climate Diplomacy to Cancun

  4. Climate Diplomacy • to Cancun • The first Climate Treaty: UNFCCC, 1992/1994. 194 parties – consensus model. • - “Common But Differentiated • Responsibilities” (CBDR) • Kyoto Protocol, 1998/2004. • - Annex 1 (5.2% below 1990 by • 2012) vs. Non-Annex 1. • July 1997, US opts out. Byrd-Hagel Resolution on KP, 95-0. • Bali Action Plan, 2007 • - NAMAs. Emission reductions • from emerging emitters in • exchange for finance • and technology. • - Creation of AWG-LCA.

  5. Climate Diplomacy to Cancun • Dec. 2009: The Copenhagen • Accord. • - First part of intended “two • step” proposal by Danes. • - Aspiration to limit • temperature increase to 2C. • - $30B fast start climate • financing, 2010-2012; • $100B annual fund by 2020. • - Outline of an agreement on • Measurement, Reporting, • and Verification (MRV). • - Requirement that parties • associated with accord submit • emission reduction plans by • end of January 2010.

  6. The Cancun Agreements • Dec. 2010: Against all expectation achieve political consensus on building blocks from Copenhagen Accord expanding agreements on mitigation, adaptation, MRV, technology, forestry, finance. • - Creation of “Green Climate • Fund.” Specification on • transitional committee. • - Agreement on MRV for non- • supported developing • country actions: “International • Consultation and Analysis.” • - Creation of “Climate Technology • Center” -- hub and spoke model. • - Showdown with Bolivia • challenges consensus process – • extended to Mexico-PNG proposal • on ¾ voting rule.

  7. Paths to Governance?: Kyoto vs. “Copenhagen”

  8. Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path “Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing - Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. 8

  9. Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path “Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing - Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding - Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition). 9

  10. Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path “Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing - Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding - Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition). - Treaty obligations drive - National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy security, etc.).

  11. Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path “Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing - Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding - Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition). - Treaty obligations drive - National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy security, etc.). - Enforcement through market - Enforcement through exclusion. “shame and blame.”

  12. Deadlock from Bonn intersessional negotiations over past two weeks: Focus on second commitment period for Kyoto or focus on building out Cancun building blocks.

  13. Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto PathCopenhagen Path - Build out from existing - Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding - Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition). - Treaty obligations drive - National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy security, etc.). - Enforcement through market - Enforcement through exclusion. “shame and blame.” - Covers ~35% of emissions.* - Covers ~80% emissions.

  14. 3. An Agenda for Durban

  15. Problem: While emission commitments go to 2020, finance commitments only go to 2012, resuming in 2020.

  16. Copenhagen Pledge (billions) Minimum Gap Additional $60 billion over three years Assume doubling in real terms (includes emissions permit auction revenues) Ramp-up urgently needed International Offsets Assumes delay of non-EU carbon markets Midpoint Maintain “Fast Start” level (includes inflation) Traditional Climate Foreign Aid Increase Climate Foreign Aid Fast Start Funding “Ramp-up” Period

  17. No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges.

  18. No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges. But this won’t happen unless South Africa sets an aggressive agenda from the COP presidency. 20

  19. No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges. But this won’t happen unless South Africa sets an aggressive agenda from the COP presidency. Opportunity: US-EU dispute over extension of ETS to air travel in January 2012. Next step: July 5th hearing in Luxembourg in suit by three US air carriers against EU.

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