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Informal sector methodology in Afristat’s states Presented by : Siriki Coulibaly

WORKSHOP ON THE PRODUCTION OF STATISTICS ON THE INFORMAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT AND INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT Dar-es-Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania 28 September – 2 October 2009. Informal sector methodology in Afristat’s states Presented by : Siriki Coulibaly Expert in poverty analysis

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Informal sector methodology in Afristat’s states Presented by : Siriki Coulibaly

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  1. WORKSHOP ON THE PRODUCTION OF STATISTICS ON THE INFORMAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT AND INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT Dar-es-Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania28 September – 2 October 2009 Informal sector methodology in Afristat’s states Presented by : Siriki Coulibaly Expert in poverty analysis AFRISTAT, Bamako (Mali)

  2. The 1.2. survey for measuring employment and informal sector Phase 1: Employment survey Phase 2: Informal sector survey Methodological aspects of measuring the informal sector Variables for identification of informality for independants workers (Phase 1) Definition of informal activity and IPU identification matrix Calculation of the coefficients of level-headedness of the Phase 2 Observing seasonnality of activities Estimation of informal aggregates PLAN OF THE PRESENTATION

  3. THE 1.2. SURVEY FOR MEASURING EMPLOYMENT AND INFORMAL SECTOR • Phase 1: Employment survey • System of mixed and sequential surveys : • The first: Employment survey (Phase 1) • The second : Informal sector survey (Phase 2). • Main caracteristics of the phase 1 : • Statistical unit: Household • Collect infomations on employment and its conditions of activities • Identify household member’s susceptibles to be a chief of informal production unit (CIPU) based on the following informations: • Being a working person (absolutely) • Independant employment condition (Boss, own account worker) • Recording situation (Yes, No, No answer, doesn’t know) • Keeping or not a formal written accounting • Constitution of the base of sounding of CIPU

  4. THE 1.2. SURVEY FOR MEASURING EMPLOYMENT AND INFORMAL SECTOR • Phase 2: Informal sector survey • Control and final selection of the CIPU • The bosses • The own account workers • Balance sheet of changes observed between Phase 1 and Phase 2 among the CIPU (cf. Annexe 2) • Constitution of the final base of sounding of the CIPU and edition of a sample of IPU to visit • Statistical unit: IPU • Informations on IPU activities and organization (module A to G of the questionnaire)

  5. B. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF MEASURING THE INFORMAL SECTOR • Main variables for identification of independants worker’s informality : • Keeping or not a written formal accounting • Retaining one or other one of the following recording criteria : Taxpayer’s, Business registry, Statistic number, Social security number, Fiscal identification number • Operational definition of informal sector Constitute an informal activity, "Any activity, not registered and\or devoid of formal written accounting, exercised as main or secondary employment, by a person as boss or in his own account. This person is then considered as chief of informal production unit "(ILO / SNA 1993) • IPU identification matrix

  6. B. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF MEASURING THE INFORMAL SECTOR • IPU identification matrix (Suite) : • This identification have some limits : • Very large field of « informal sector » which include illegal and underground activities and « real informal sector » to estimate; • Over estimations due to many factors (no answer, doesn’t know, etc.) and explaining the importance of gap between survey results and national account results • Importante to improve information about targeting of the « real informal sector » • Calculation of the coefficients of level-headedness of the phase 2 Coeff phase 2 = Coeff phase 1 * Coeff used to correct changes observed between phase 1 and phase 2 concerning employment profil by branche and independants status (cf. Annexe 2)

  7. B. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF MEASURING THE INFORMAL SECTOR • Observing saisonnality of informal activities : • Keep retrospectively in a single passage begining by the reference month (M12), corresponding to the survey date • Estimate the information Ratio (constant) like this : Ration = D6b1 /D6b2 = Max monthly turnover/Min monthly turnover

  8. B. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF MEASURING THE INFORMAL SECTOR • Use of information on saisonnality and Ratio : 4 cas may occur • Case 1: Reference month is a maximum activity period (D6A =1) CAMax = CD2T CAMin = CAMax/Ratio CAMoy = (CAMax + CAMin) /2 • Case 2: Reference month is a mean activity period (D6A =2) CAMoy = CD2T CAMin = 2*CAMoy/( 1 + Ratio) CAMax = 2*Ratio*CAMoy /(1 + Ratio) • Case 3 : Reference month is a minimum activity period (D6A =3) CAMin = CD2T CAMax = Ratio*CAMax CAMoy =0,5*(1 + Ratio)*CAMin • Case 4: No activity CAMin = CAMax = CAmoy=0

  9. B. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF MEASURING THE INFORMAL SECTOR • Estimation of monthly values of aggregates

  10. B. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF MEASURING THE INFORMAL SECTOR • Estimation of annual values of aggregates

  11. B. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF MEASURING THE INFORMAL SECTOR • Saisonnality estimate of monthly production Prod_month(i) = CAmonth(i) – D1BTmens*(CAmonth(i) / C2DT)

  12. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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