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Fatality Modeling and the PEER Testbeds

Fatality Modeling and the PEER Testbeds. Shoaf and Seligson Casualty Project Kickoff UCLA CPHD 27 January 2003 Keith Porter, California Institute of Technology. Casualty Modeling in PEER. Brief history of seismic design PEER PBEE methodology PEER decision variables PEER testbeds

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Fatality Modeling and the PEER Testbeds

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  1. Fatality Modeling and the PEER Testbeds Shoaf and Seligson Casualty Project Kickoff UCLA CPHD 27 January 2003 Keith Porter, California Institute of Technology

  2. Casualty Modeling in PEER • Brief history of seismic design • PEER PBEE methodology • PEER decision variables • PEER testbeds • PEER fatality modeling requirements

  3. 2-minute History of Seismic Design • Before 1924, no code for seismic design • 1920s: allowable stress design (ASD) [ Resistance/Demand factor of safety ]  OK • 1980s: load and resistance factor design (LRFD) [ fR gD ]  [ Pf acceptable Pf ]  OK • 1990s+: performance-based engineering (PBE) [ Performance ≥ Demands ]  OK

  4. PEER PBEE

  5. PEER Decision Variables Dollars Deaths Downtime

  6. PEER Testbeds Ages, systems, damage measures, stakeholders & decision variables

  7. Requirements of the Fatality Model p[D deaths | DM, &] • DM: damage measures – which ones? • &: what else matters? • Structural system • Occupancy numbers, patterns, demographics • Search and rescue resources • … • Illustrate for Van Nuys

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