Outline

1. THE USE OF FORESIGHT FOR NATIONAL POLICY-MAKING:Needs and Experiences in HungaryAttila HavasInstitute of EconomicsHungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest Bled, 4 Marc 2006

2. Outline Aims and methods of TEP Results Snapshots: socio-economic challenges Macro and panel visions Policy recommendations Dissemination, implementation and impacts Conclusions

3. Hungarian Foresight Panels Human resources (education, employment) Health (life sciences, pharmaceuticals, medical instruments, health care) IT, telecommunications, media Natural and built environment Manufacturing and business processes (new materials, supplier networks, globalisation ...) Agribusiness and food Transport

4. TEP Results • Delphi-survey • 7 panel reports(launched in June 2000) 60-80 pages each, 15-25 background papers SW, futures, policy recommendations • Steering Group report SW, macro scenarios, policy recommendations • regional workshops(>100)

5. 6 Panels’ Recommendations by Type

6. Dissemination,Implementation Workshops Reports, press Internet Parliamentary committees Face-to-face meetings with government officials (see Evaluation)

7. Impacts Process benefits (besides products) • communication • concentration on longer term • co-ordination • consensus • commitment New way of thinking • complex issues, ‘multi-sectorial’ programmes e.g. health, environment, info/society • the importance of non/technological factors

8. Evaluation Results International Panel, 2003-2004 (www.foresight.hu) “Results were used in the Prime Minister’s Office when policies were being made – an effect visible at the time of the last elections” “Many statements in the current transport policy on the Ministry’s website echo passages from TEP” “Exact sentences from TEP are readable in the Ministry of Health’s revolutionary national programme to improve health status” “A new Act embodies the recommendations of the IT, Telecommunications and Media panel”

9. Evaluation … (2) “Recommendations from the Natural and Built Environment panel did not create many changes but there were some specific ones of which the most important has been the introduction of new environment taxes on emissions and energy” “The Ministry of Environment and Hungarian Academy of Sciences have launched joint projects to elaborate an adaptation policy for climate change in Hungary” “The Second Environment Programme recently adopted by Parliament contains scenarios based on TEP”

10. Evaluation … (3) “[a] careful analysis indicates an impact both on the climate of thought in many policy areas and a series of indirect but significant effects on policy in several domains. It seems that TEP created a reservoir of knowledge that entered the policy system in a non-linear fashion, either through personal networks of participants or simply by having cogent text available when policies were being drafted. A note of caution needs to be sounded on causality – TEP reflected as well as initiated the policy discourse in Hungary. However, the specificity of the impacts suggests that it at least crystallised and almost certainly extended significantly thinking on many issues.”

11. Evaluation … (4) “The reasons for lack of direct implementation lie, we believe in the implementation environment in which the programme was situated. Its origins within the OMFB may initially have given it a welcome degree of freedom but with the radical change in nature of that organisation and a change of government, there was no natural channel nor an obvious champion in government able to act upon the results. Even if OMFB had been unchanged, it was itself at a distance from some of the political decisions implied in the recommendations. (…) the added value of TEP came from being able to take a holistic view of sectors which a purely sectoral exercise could not have achieved. While greater engagement by some ministries would have been beneficial, reporting to them directly could have constrained thinking and lost the benefit of multidisciplinarity within panels and learning generated through interaction between them.”

12. Conclusions TEP results were perceived favourably (Parliament, various ministries) Yet, implementation could have been faster, more extensive and better co-ordinated with a stronger political support Legacy (mindsets) difficult to develop alternative futures (not just ‘variations on a theme’)

13. Current Needs Socio-economic challenges Global developments EU-membership Lisbon strategy use of EU and national funds Hungary’s role in the EU, further enlargement .. Yet, no sign of a new round of a national foresight programme

14. Dilemmas, Inherent Contradictions Long-term nature of foresight issues (policy recommendations) substantially shorter time horizon of politicians (some policy-makers) Strong (‘distant’) political support, embeddedness  intellectual, organisational, financial independence

15. Dilemmas, Inherent Contradictions(2) Departmentalised government structurescomplex issues (health, quality of life, environment, competitiveness, etc.) Public resources – financial and intellectual ones – should be pulled together to make a real difference in an efficient (co-ordinated) way; yet, they are allocated to different ministries and other government agencies

16. Thanks!Questions, comments?Further information:The Relevance of Foresight for Accession Countries and Possibilities for Co-operation, IPTS Report, No. 73 (April 2003), pp. 4-11Evolving Foresight in a Small Transition Economy: The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22 (2003), No. 2-3, pp. 179-201Identifying Challenges and Developing Visions: Technology Foresight in Hungary, in: Ch-S. Chung, J. Park (eds): National Visions and Strategies, pp. 231-268, Seoul: KDI School of Public Policy and Management and The World Bank, 2003havasatt@econ.core.hu