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MDL Probabilistic Forecast Guidance NFUSE Presentation Bob Glahn (MDL) Kathryn Gilbert (MDL/MOS)

MDL Probabilistic Forecast Guidance NFUSE Presentation Bob Glahn (MDL) Kathryn Gilbert (MDL/MOS) Judy E. Ghirardelli (MDL/LAMP) National Weather Service Meteorological Development Laboratory July 11, 2007. MOS Probability Post-Processing.

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MDL Probabilistic Forecast Guidance NFUSE Presentation Bob Glahn (MDL) Kathryn Gilbert (MDL/MOS)

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  1. MDL Probabilistic Forecast Guidance NFUSE Presentation Bob Glahn (MDL) Kathryn Gilbert (MDL/MOS) Judy E. Ghirardelli (MDL/LAMP) National Weather Service Meteorological Development Laboratory July 11, 2007

  2. MOS Probability Post-Processing • MOS provides objective forecast guidance for sensible weather elements • Products may be deterministic or probabilistic • Probability forecasts are transformed to a “best” category by applying a threshold value to the probability • Categorization is often done at the request of the users • decisions are made before dissemination • Thresholds are determined to maximize some characteristic of performance, i.e. threat score, or in our case, usually unit bias • events are forecast with the same frequency they are observed • provide a desired balance between the threat score, the bias, the POD and the FAR

  3. MOS Sample Text Message KPHL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2007 0000 UTC DT /FEB 14 /FEB 15 /FEB 16 / HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 X/N 32 15 26 13 29 TMP 23 24 25 29 29 28 26 22 18 17 16 19 24 25 23 19 17 16 15 27 25 DPT 20 23 25 29 28 23 16 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 5 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL SC SC SC BK BK BK SC SC SC BK CL WDR 06 06 05 02 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 27 WSP 15 16 19 17 19 24 25 24 21 18 15 19 20 20 14 13 13 13 13 20 15 P06 100 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P12 85 2 0 0 0 Q06 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 4 0 0 0 0 T06 3/ 0 1/24 2/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 1 1/19 0/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0 T12 3/24 2/26 1/19 1/23 0/21 POZ 69 61 50 36 19 20 20 7 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 POS 16 12 10 25 30 45 64 76 84 99 85 97 97 86 88 85 81100 93 91 94 TYP Z Z Z Z S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SNW 1 0 CIG 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

  4. MOS Sample Text Message KPHL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2007 0000 UTC DT /FEB 14 /FEB 15 /FEB 16 / HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 X/N 32 15 26 13 29 TMP 23 24 25 29 29 28 26 22 18 17 16 19 24 25 23 19 17 16 15 27 25 DPT 20 23 25 29 28 23 16 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 5 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL SC SC SC BK BK BK SC SC SC BK CL WDR 06 06 05 02 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 27 WSP 15 16 19 17 19 24 25 24 21 18 15 19 20 20 14 13 13 13 13 20 15 P06 100 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P12 85 2 0 0 0 Q06 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q12 4 0 0 0 0 T06 3/ 0 1/24 2/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 1 1/19 0/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0 T12 3/24 2/26 1/19 1/23 0/21 POZ 69 61 50 36 19 20 20 7 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 POS 16 12 10 25 30 45 64 76 84 99 85 97 97 86 88 85 81100 93 91 94 TYP Z Z Z Z S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SNW 1 0 CIG 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

  5. 40-km contoured 10% 20-km contoured 10% Probability of 1 or more cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in a grid box over a 3-h period Identical techniques, different horizontal resolutions

  6. 40-km contoured 10% 20-km contoured 5% Magnitude of the probabilities is proportional to the grid spacing, similar behavior with length of time periods

  7. Gridded MOS Prob. Of Precip NDGD Products are available in GRIB2

  8. Available MOS Probability Guidance

  9. Available MOS Probability Guidance

  10. Available MOS Probability Guidance

  11. 12-H Probability of Precipitation Warm SeasonBrier Score Brier Score Forecast Projection (hr)

  12. 12-H Probability of Precipitation Cool Season All Stations 24-h Reliability

  13. Probability of Quantitative Precip ≥ .25”

  14. MOS Products Alphanumeric Bulletins • Precipitation, Thunderstorm, SevereTstm, Snow, Freezing, Rain/Snow Station guidance in BUFR format • Contains all MOS probabilities Gridded MOS guidance in GRIB2 format (NDGD) • 3-, 6- and 12-h thunderstorm probabilities • 6- and 12-h probability of precipitation Web graphics of most MOS probability products http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml

  15. LAMP Background • LAMP: • is a system of objective analyses, simple models, regression equations, and related thresholds which together provide guidance for sensible weather forecasts • LAMP guidance is both probabilistic and deterministic • bridges the gap between the observations and the MOS forecast • acts as an update to MOS guidance • provides guidance for aviation elements • is useful to WFO forecasters in making the TAFs and to AWC forecasters in making the convective products • provides guidance for CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

  16. LAMP Probabilities

  17. LAMP Probabilities

  18. LAMP Probabilities

  19. LAMP Probabilities

  20. LAMP Probabilistic Products • SBN/NOAAPort/NWS FTP server products: • Alphanumeric bulletin guidance • Probs of precipitation occurrence, POP6, 2hr thunderstorm, freezing precipitation, frozen precipitation • Station guidance in BUFR format • Contains all probabilities made by LAMP • Gridded thunderstorm guidance in GRIB2 format • 2hr thunderstorm probabilities • Graphical products on weather.gov: • Gridded thunderstorm images, including probabilities • Station plots of POPO • Meteograms, including probabilities found in bulletin

  21. GFS LAMP Status • Operational Status: • 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC - operational July 2006 • 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC - operational May 2007 • 4 more cycles planned to be operational September 2007 • In Stage 5 (Deploy, Maintain, and Assess) of OSIP • Data being sent out to: • SBN/NOAAPort • AWIPS depictables in OB7.2 • NWS FTP server • NDGD • NWS Web Farm

  22. LAMP Meteogram Products

  23. LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category (Y/N) Projection 1, Hrs 1-3

  24. LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category (Y/N) All Projections

  25. POP6 Reliability Cool Season

  26. 1694 1288 1598 1778 2032 2507 3196 4419 6695 13383 24899 37203

  27. 1270 1348 1549 1787 2006 2454 3148 4279 7154 14665 21013 40861

  28. 889 1128 1467 1843 1936 2430 3230 4259 6904 14148 30190 32798

  29. Ceiling < 1000 feet Reliability Warm and Cool Seasons

  30. 827 2642 4348 5189 4171 3625 3684 5574 14848 56727 165669 145522

  31. 543 1504 2749 3876 5170 6247 8882 14551 32718 84430 142072 108049

  32. 111 1264 486 2676 4627 8028 13531 22439 40353 84219 145324 104261

  33. Visibility < 3 miles Reliability Warm and Cool Seasons

  34. 127 350 1268 2145 3175 3815 3233 7822 15090 48684 167357 161115

  35. 83 373 147 1010 2290 4197 7716 13759 29062 86103 147979 119527

  36. 43 18 141 560 1563 3724 7585 15591 33554 86219 153950 125758

  37. ThunderstormReliability Warm Season

  38. 974 1117 1805 2839 4501 6956 11427 19702 40770 150318 1418921 1515938

  39. 10 296 166 80 1551 6394 28542 204603 1306667 1626959

  40. 512 13277 7 179071 1163074 1819327

  41. ThunderstormBrier Score Improvement on Climatology Spring Season

  42. MDL MOS and LAMP Products on the Web MOS Products http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml LAMP Products http://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp/

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