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Investment Banking In India

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Investment Banking In India

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  1. 01 July 2019 India | Indian Banking Sector | Sector Report Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector Mapping India’s deposits Mapping India’s deposits We We conduct a detailed analysis on conduct a detailed analysis on the deposit landscape in India at a the deposit landscape in India at a time when deposit growth ( deposit growth (8 8% % CAGR CAGR for last 2 years for last 2 years) continues to lag credit growth ( system CD ratio is system CD ratio is near historical peak levels near historical peak levels at at 77 sticky sticky liquidity’ which throw up opportunities for banks to tap incremental deposit growth, liquidity’ which throw up opportunities for banks to tap incremental deposit growth, and analyse the deposit stronghol and analyse the deposit strongholds for banks across Indian ds for banks across Indian states. while PSU while PSU banks banks continue to lose market share in deposit continue to lose market share in deposits, stickier SA has largely been in line wi stickier SA has largely been in line with the th the decline decline in in their to indicate that private to indicate that private banks banks have largely grown by growing the market pie (and not balance have largely grown by growing the market pie (and not balance transfers) to obtain retail SA transfers) to obtain retail SA – – whi while there is evidence for balance migration le there is evidence for balance migration in in CA and TD. We also do a deep dive into the 2 biggest deposit pools in India, the MMR and Delhi regions We also do a deep dive into the 2 biggest deposit pools in India, the MMR and Delhi regions (which account for (which account for 24 24% % of overall deposits of overall deposits) ), to look at how banks have fared there. , to look at how banks have fared there. Where does the opportunity lie? Where does the opportunity lie? While system deposit growth CAGR was at 10% over FY14-19, the biggest drag has been due to the Western region (contributes 26% to overall pie), which has grown at 6% CAGR over same period. Specifically the TD growth CAGR in the region has been weak at 3%. We believe incremental deposit growth for private banks in western and northern regions will be driven by market share shifts. We expect eastern and central regions to be the major drivers for incremental deposit growth for private banks, where branch penetration and per capita deposits are lower (Exhibit 7,10), PSU market share is disproportionately higher (Exhibit 1) and utilisation levels for private banks is still low (Exhibit 11). In spite of this, deposit growth in these 2 regions which account for 26% of the system deposits has outpaced the system deposit growth (11-12% CAGR over FY14 -19 vs 10% for system). We believe that they will continue to be pockets of deposit growth, especially for private banks. Winning back Winning back deposit market shares from PSUs deposit market shares from PSUs – – is it really all that easy? suggests that while PSUs continue to lose market share in deposits (7 ppts in FY14-18), their market share losses in stickier SA has largely been in line with the decline in their branch market share. This seems to indicate that privates have largely grown by growing the market pie (and not balance transfers) to obtain retail SA. This can be attributed to the stickier nature of SA deposits – the household sector contributed c.82% of total SA pie (Mar-18) while private corporates contributed c.44% of the CA pie. Private banks have been much more successful in terms of market share gains on the CA and TD fronts. Market share gains in CA and TD were 10 ppts and 7 ppts over FY14-18, compared to the 5 ppts gain in overall branch market share. Where do banks get their deposits from? Where do banks get their deposits from? Private banks have been largely successful in garnering deposits from the deposit-rich hubs of Maharashtra and NCR – with these 2 regions alone contributing 37-56% of respective overall deposits for large private banks in our coverage. A deep dive into the 2 biggest deposit pools of MMR and Delhi regions (24% of system deposits), suggests that large private banks hold the edge over PSUs in these regions – with disproportionately higher market shares compared to their overall system market shares. time when the 11% the system system % CAGR CAGR) and ‘pockets of Sameer Bhise Sameer Bhise ) continues to lag credit growth (11 77%. We have tried to identify %. We have tried to identify ‘pockets of ) and sameer.bhise@jmfl.com | Tel: (91 22) 66303489 S Parameswaran S Parameswaran s.parameswaran@jmfl.com | Tel: (91 22) 66303075 Akshay Jain Akshay Jain states. Our analysis suggests that Our analysis suggests that s, their market share losses in their market share losses in their branch market share. branch market share. This seems akshay.jain@jmfl.com | Tel: (91 22) 66303099 Karan Singh Karan Singh This seems karan.uberoi@jmfl.com | Tel: (91 22) 66303082 Bunny Babjee Bunny Babjee CA and TD. bunny.babjee@jmfl.com | Tel: (91 22) 66303263 Private Banks Private Banks Axis Bank HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Kotak Bank Yes Bank Indusind Bank Federal Bank DCB Bank City Union Bank Bandhan Bank PSU Banks PSU Banks SBI PNB Canara Bank Bank of Baroda Reco. Reco. BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY Reco. Reco. BUY HOLD HOLD BUY TP TP 865 2,600 460 1,435 265 1,860 120 250 220 710 TP TP 385 95 300 135 is it really all that easy? Our analysis States with high deposit penetration States with high deposit penetration % % of total deposits deposits (Mar (Mar- -19) Deposit market share Deposit market share (Mar (Mar- -18) Branch market share Branch market share (Dec (Dec- -18) of total Branches per 1 Branches per 1 lakh people lakh people (Dec (Dec- -18) Deposit/GDP Deposit/GDP (Mar (Mar- -19) 18) 18) State State 19) 19) 18) PSU Bank PSU Bank Pvt. Bank Pvt. Bank PSU Bank PSU Bank Pvt. Bank Pvt. Bank Maharashtra NCT Of Delhi 20% 9% 91% 155% 53% 63% 37% 27% 63% 67% 28% 31% 1,187 2,299 JM Financial Research is also available on: Bloomberg - JMFR <GO>, Thomson Publisher & Reuters, S&P Capital IQ, FactSet and Visible Alpha Please see Appendix I at the end of this report for Important Disclosures and Disclaimers and Certification. West Bengal 6% 68% 77% 19% 62% 26% 1,007 Punjab 3% 73% 80% 17% 68% 24% 2,418 Jharkhand 2% 76% 89% 7% 71% 13% 965 Chandigarh 1% 174% 70% 27% 70% 27% 4,482 Goa 1% 97% 80% 20% 72% 28% 4,827 Research Analyst Jammu & Kashmir 1% 77% 27% 69% 27% 54% 1,475 All India All India 66% 66% 67% 67% 25% 25% 62% 62% 22% 22% 1,245 1,245 Source: RBI, JM Financial, Population as per 2011 census JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited

  2. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector Key Charts Key Charts 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 Deposit growth Deposit growth across regions Exhibit 1. Exhibit 1. Distribution of deposits by ownership (Mar Distribution of deposits by ownership (Mar- -18) Exhibit 2. Exhibit 2. across regions 18) CAGR (FY14 CAGR (FY14- -19) (%) SA SA 14% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 19) (%) TD TD 3% 9% 9% 9% 10% 11% 7% 7% Government Sector Private Corporates (incl Fin) Households - Individuals Region Region CA CA 11% 12% 10% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11% Total Deposits Total Deposits 6% 11% 10% 11% 12% 12% 10% 10% Households - Others Foreign Sector WESTERN REGION SOUTHERN REGION NORTHERN REGION CENTRAL REGION EASTERN REGION NORTH-EASTERN REGION All India All India Source: RBI, JM Financial 100% 1% 5% 7% 9% 5% 90% 9% 8% 24% 80% 70% 14% 60% 49% 55% 77% 50% 40% 44% 30% 20% 16% 20% 1% 10% 17% 14% 14% 11% 0% CA (%) SA (%) TD (%) Total Deposits (%) Source: RBI, JM Financial # ’Household others’ is largely sole proprietors/ partnership firms Exhibit 3. Exhibit 3. Market share lost by PSU banks (FY14 Market share lost by PSU banks (FY14- -18) Market share gains by private banks (FY14 Market share gains by private banks (FY14- -18) Exhibit 4. Exhibit 4. 18) 18) Western Northern North - Eastern Southern Eastern Central All India Western Northern North - Eastern Southern Eastern Central All India CA SA TD Total Deposits Branch 16% 0% 14% -2% 12% -4% 10% -6% 8% -8% -10% 6% -12% 4% -14% 2% -16% 0% -18% CA SA TD Total Deposits Branch Source: RBI, JM Financial Exhibit 5. Exhibit 5. Source: RBI, JM Financial CASA + Retail TD market share (Mar CASA + Retail TD market share (Mar- -18) HDFC Bank: State HDFC Bank: State- -wise deposit break Exhibit 6. Exhibit 6. 18) wise deposit break- -up* up* YES 1% AXSB 5% HDFCB 7%ICICIBC Maharashtra Gujarat UP WB TN Karnataka Delhi Kerala Haryana Telangana Others KMB 2% 18% IIB 1%FB 5% Others 33% 31% 1% 4% DCBB 0% BOB 5% 4% 2% PNB 6% CUBK 1% 11% 6% CNBK 5% 5% BANDHAN 0% 8% SBIN 28% 4% 6% Source: RBI, JM Financial; System CASA and Retail TD is taken as sum of system CASA + ‘Household – Individuals TDs’ Source: Company, RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial * *For other banks please refer Exhibits 32 For other banks please refer Exhibits 32- -39 39 JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 3

  3. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 Indian households have increasingly been inclined towards financial savings in the recent past. Net financial savings as a % of net household savings increased to 38% as of FY18, up from 31% in FY12. This has helped sustain flows into financial assets, despite a general decrease in the savings rate in the economy. Gross savings to GDP ratio has declined to 30.5% as of FY18, from 34.6% as of FY12. Additionally, with increasing financial literacy in the country, proportion of gross savings being invested in non-bank deposit financial channels (like mutual funds and life insurance) has seen an increase (MF AUM has grown at a CAGR of 15% over FY14-19). This is one of the reasons for slower bank deposit accretion (c.9.6% CAGR over FY14-19). Accordingly, bank deposits to GDP ratio has witnessed a decline to 66% as of FY19, from 71% as of FY14, indicating that deposit growth has been slower than GDP growth over FY14-19 (9.6% vs. 11.2%). How is the deposit pie split across India? How is the deposit pie split across India? Key Deposit Indicators Key Deposit Indicators Exhibit 7. Exhibit 7. Source: RBI, JM Financial, Population as per 2011 census JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 4

  4. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 Distribution of Distribution of deposits across regions deposits across regions (Mar Exhibit 8. Exhibit 8. Type of deposits across regions Type of deposits across regions (Mar Exhibit 9. Exhibit 9. (Mar- -19) 19) (Mar- -19) 19) TD (%) CA (%) SA (%) CA SA TD 100% 35 33.0 90% 30.1 80% 30 42% 26.4 47% 52% 58% 59% 70% 61% 64% 25 60% 21.2 17.7 20 INR trn INR trn 16.9 16.7 50% 16.0 40% 15 47% 7.9 8.8 30% 46% 41% 10 33% 32% 23% 31% 7.5 20% 9.8 8.1 2.4 5 7.8 6.8 10% 13% 12% 4.4 9% 9% 9% 7% 7% 2.7 1.1 2.3 1.2 Eastern 0% 0 Northern Western Southern North - Eastern Eastern Central All India Northern Western Southern North - Eastern Central Source: RBI, JM Financial Source: RBI, JM Financial For CA and SA deposits, we see that the CAGR (FY14-19) was largely similar across regions. For Term Deposits, while we see a low CAGR of 3% in Western region (already at a high penetration), other regions witnessed a more comparable CAGR ranging from 9-11%. Deposit growth across regions Deposit growth across regions – – TD growth in the Western region has been the TD growth in the Western region has been the Exhibit 10. Exhibit 10. major drag major drag CAGR (FY14 CAGR (FY14- -19) (%) SA SA 14% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 19) (%) TD TD 3% 9% 9% 9% 10% 11% 7% 7% Region Region CA CA 11% 12% 10% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11% Total Deposits Total Deposits 6% 11% 10% 11% 12% 12% 10% 10% WESTERN REGION SOUTHERN REGION NORTHERN REGION CENTRAL REGION EASTERN REGION NORTH-EASTERN REGION All India All India Source: RBI, JM Financial We have calculated region-wise bank deposits to GDP ratio as below and identified the potential growth regions for deposits: Bank deposits to GDP ratio Bank deposits to GDP ratio (Mar (Mar- -19) 19) Exhibit 11. Exhibit 11. 90% 81% 76% 80% 67% 66% 70% 59% 60% 54% 48% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Northern Western Southern North - Eastern Eastern Central All India Source: RBI, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 5

  5. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 A. A.Competition to remain high in Competition to remain high in n northern and As on Mar-19, the bank deposits to GDP ratio for the northern and western regions (representing 47% of the banking system deposits as on Mar-19), is higher than the national average, at 81% and 76% respectively. The higher ratio is a result of: a) a)Well Well- -established branch network in the regions established branch network in the regions Northern and Western regions have higher Northern and Western regions have higher branch penetration Exhibit 12. Exhibit 12. orthern and western western regions regions branch penetration Branches per 1 lakh people Deposits per branch (INR mn) (RHS) 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 Northern Western Southern North-Eastern Eastern Central All India Source: RBI, JM Financial, Population as per 2011 census b) b)Higher deposits per capita Higher deposits per capita North North and and w west have disproportionately higher deposits per capita est have disproportionately higher deposits per capita (INR) Exhibit 13. Exhibit 13. (INR) (Mar (Mar- -19) 19) Source: RBI, JM Financial, Population as per 2011 census Given the high level of deposit penetration, the incremental deposit CAGR (FY14-19) has been lowest for western region at 6%. In the northern region while the deposit CAGR (FY14- 19) has been higher, the growth has slowed down over last 2 years as penetration levels have increased. JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 6

  6. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 Deposit CAGR (FY14 Deposit CAGR (FY14- -19) has been lowest for 19) has been lowest for w west and Exhibit 14. Exhibit 14. est and north north Deposit CAGR (FY14-19) Deposit CAGR (FY17-19) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 10% 5% 6% 5% 11% 6% 12% 7% 12% 6% 11% 6% 0% Northern Western Southern North-Eastern Eastern Central Source: RBI, JM Financial Given the high level of deposit penetration, incremental deposit growth from these regions will largely be a factor of increase in GDP per capita (and in turn increased savings). Hence, competition among banks is expected to remain high with focus on getting a higher share of the existing as well as incremental deposits. Accordingly, western and northern regions have seen higher market share gains by private banks at 12% and 7% respectively during FY14- 18. Private banks have Private banks have higher market share gains in higher market share gains in Northern an Exhibit 15. Exhibit 15. (FY14 (FY14- -18) 18) Northern and Western regions d Western regions Source: RBI, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 7

  7. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 B. B.Eastern and Eastern and c central While the bank deposits to GDP ratio for eastern and central regions (representing 26% of total banking system deposits as on Mar-19) is fairly close to national average at 67% and 59% respectively, high growth opportunity exists in these regions due to lower branch penetration. entral regions regions – – New f New frontiers for growth? rontiers for growth? Eastern and Eastern and c central regions have lower branch penetration entral regions have lower branch penetration Exhibit 16. Exhibit 16. Branches per 1 lakh people Deposits per branch (INR mn) (RHS) 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 Northern Western Southern North-Eastern Eastern Central All India Source: RBI, JM Financial, Population as per 2011 census While there are ample growth opportunities for deposit growth in eastern and central regions given the low levels of penetration, private banks are expected to benefit more given their disproportionately lower levels of branch utilisation as compared to PSU banks. Deposits per branch for private banks in east and central regions stood at 0.6x and 0.8x of their PSU counterparts respectively. This is as compared to a national average of 1.1x, which indicates that private banks are relatively under-utilised in the eastern and central regions. Private Private banks Exhibit 17. Exhibit 17. banks in in e eastern and astern and central central regions have lower regions have lower deposits per branch deposits per branch PSU Bank Pvt. Bank Pvt banks to PSU banks deposit per branch ratio 2,000 1.6 1,800 1.4 1,600 1.2 1,400 1.0 1,200 1,000 INR INR 0.8 800 0.6 600 0.4 400 0.2 200 0 0.0 Northern Western Southern North - Eastern Eastern Central All India Source: RBI, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 8

  8. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 C. C.Deposit penetration Deposit penetration continues to be low in South continues to be low in South Bank deposits to GDP ratio for Southern region (representing 24% of total banking system deposits as on Mar-19) at 54% is lower than national average of 66%. While Southern states have a well-established branch network, the deposit per branch is lower (c.INR 724mn against national average of c.INR 833mn) , which indicates that there is room for improvement in utilisation of branches. South still lags behind on deposit per branch South still lags behind on deposit per branch Exhibit 18. Exhibit 18. Branches per 1 lakh people Deposits per branch (INR mn) (RHS) 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 Northern Western Southern North-Eastern Eastern Central All India Source: RBI, JM Financial, Population as per 2011 census JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 9

  9. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector Where Where do 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 do we think the opportunity lies? we think the opportunity lies? The following table denotes the top states which can be the key candidates for banks to drive their incremental deposit growth: Top Top s states with strong deposit growth potential tates with strong deposit growth potential Exhibit 19. Exhibit 19. % % of total of total deposits deposits (Mar (Mar- -19) 19) Deposits Deposits Per Capita Indicators (INR) Per Capita Indicators (INR) (Mar (Mar- -19) Branches per 1 Branches per 1 lakh people lakh people (Dec (Dec- -18) Deposit market share (Mar Deposit market share (Mar- -18) 18) Branch market share (Dec Branch market share (Dec- -18) 18) Deposit/GDP Deposit/GDP (Mar (Mar- -19) 19) States States 19) 18) GDP GDP PSU Bank PSU Bank Pvt. Bank Pvt. Bank Others Others PSU Bank PSU Bank Pvt. Bank Pvt. Bank Others Others Tamil Nadu 6% 110,713 221,370 50% 60% 34% 7% 59% 31% 9% 1,577 Gujarat Telangana* 5% 4% 111,632 131,080 241,619 240,726 46% 54% 74% 66% 23% 26% 3% 8% 65% 62% 23% 20% 12% 18% 1,390 1,524 Rajasthan 3% 55,236 134,832 41% 74% 18% 8% 58% 17% 24% 1,107 Madhya Pradesh 3% 50,742 113,747 45% 84% 10% 6% 62% 17% 22% 972 Andhra Pradesh* 2% 60,686 174,351 35% 77% 14% 10% 67% 15% 18% 1,444 Chhattisgarh 1% 55,803 122,003 46% 79% 14% 7% 57% 18% 25% 1,056 Assam 1% 47,172 102,566 46% 81% 12% 7% 53% 25% 22% 931 All India All India 103,742 103,742 1 156,820 56,820 66% 66% 67% 67% 25% 25% 8% 8% 62% 62% 22% 22% 17% 17% 1,245 1,245 Source: RBI, JM Financial, Population as per 2011 census *Deposit / GDP for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana is as on Mar-15 and Mar-19 We believe the states of Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Telangana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Assam are the top contenders for the incremental deposit growth in the banking system. Exhibit 20. Exhibit 20. State State Top Banks (by branch market share) Top Banks (by branch market share) which can tap incremental deposits PSU Banks PSU Banks which can tap incremental deposits Private Private Banks Banks Tamil Nadu SBI, IOB, Indian Bank, Canara Bank ICICI Bank, CUB, KVB Gujarat BOB (merged), SBI, BOI HDFCB, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank Telangana SBI, Andhra Bank, BOB (merged), Canara Bank HDFCB, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank Madhya Pradesh SBI, BOI, CBI, BOB (merged), PNB HDFCB, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank Andhra Pradesh SBI, Andhra Bank, Canara Bank, BOB (merged) HDFCB, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank Chhattisgarh SBI, BOB (merged), PNB, CBI, Canara Bank HDFCB, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank Assam SBI, Union Bank, CBI, UCO Bank Bandhan Bank, Axis Bank, HDFCB, ICICI Bank Source: RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial The following table denotes the top states where the deposit penetration is higher compared to the national average. We expect that there will be intense competition to drive a higher share of the existing as well as incremental deposits. States with high deposit penetration States with high deposit penetration Exhibit 21. Exhibit 21. % % of total of total deposits deposits (Mar (Mar- -19) 19) Deposits Deposits Per Capita Indicators (INR) Per Capita Indicators (INR) (Mar (Mar- -19) Branches per 1 Branches per 1 lakh people lakh people (Dec (Dec- -18) Deposit market share (Mar Deposit market share (Mar- -18) 18) Branch Branch market share (Dec market share (Dec- -18) 18) Deposit/GDP Deposit/GDP (Mar (Mar- -19) 19) State State 19) 18) GDP GDP PSU Bank PSU Bank Pvt. Bank Pvt. Bank Others Others PSU Bank PSU Bank Pvt. Bank Pvt. Bank Others Others Maharashtra 20% 226,915 2,48,819 91% 53% 37% 10% 63% 28% 9% 1,187 NCT Of Delhi 9% 708,883 4,58,504 155% 63% 27% 10% 67% 31% 3% 2,299 West Bengal 6% 85,171 1,25,988 68% 77% 19% 4% 62% 26% 12% 1,007 Punjab 3% 136,791 1,86,816 73% 80% 17% 3% 68% 24% 9% 2,418 Jharkhand Chandigarh 2% 1% 66,238 649,782 86,879 3,72,421 76% 174% 89% 70% 7% 27% 4% 3% 71% 70% 13% 27% 16% 3% 965 4,482 Goa 1% 487,513 5,02,417 97% 80% 20% 0% 72% 28% 0% 4,827 Jammu & Kashmir 1% 94,189 1,22,699 77% 27% 69% 4% 27% 54% 19% 1,475 All India All India 103,742 103,742 1,56,820 1,56,820 66% 66% 67% 67% 25% 25% 8% 8% 62% 62% 22% 22% 17% 17% 1,245 1,245 Source: RBI, JM Financial, Population as per 2011 census JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 10

  10. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector De Deposit market share shift posit market share shift from PSU banks really all that easy? really all that easy? As can be seen from the below exhibit, PSU banks have lost a substantial deposit market share of c.7ppts to private banks during FY14-18. While private banks have witnessed a market share gain across all segments – current, savings and term deposits, we see that the gain in savings account deposit has been disproportionately lower at c. 5ppts when compared to current account (c.10ppts) and term (7ppts) deposits. We see that change in SA market share closely tracks the change in branch market share when compared to change in CA and TD market share. 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 from PSU banks to private banks to private banks – – Is it Is it One of the possible reasons for this trend is the relatively stickier nature of savings account deposits - household sector (individuals, proprietors, partnerships, trusts, etc.) owned 82.4% of the total savings deposits as of Mar-18 while private corporates (incl. financial sector corporates) own a larger proportion of total current account deposits at c.44.2%. Accordingly, private banks have been able to garner disproportionate market share gains on the CA and TD front, while the SA market share gains have largely tracked branch market share changes. Market share lost by Market share lost by PSU banks Exhibit 22. Exhibit 22. Market share gains by Market share gains by private banks Exhibit 23. Exhibit 23. PSU banks (FY14 (FY14- -18) 18) private banks (FY14 (FY14- -18) 18) Western Northern North - Eastern Southern Eastern Central All India Western Northern North - Eastern Southern Eastern Central All India CA SA TD Total Deposits Branch 16% 0% 14% -2% 12% -4% 10% -6% 8% -8% -10% 6% -12% 4% -14% 2% -16% 0% -18% CA SA TD Total Deposits Branch Source: RBI, JM Financial Source: RBI, JM Financial Distribution of Distribution of d deposits by ownership eposits by ownership (Mar Exhibit 24. Exhibit 24. Government Sector Households (Mar- -18) Private Corporates (incl Financials) Foreign Sector 18) 100% 5.4% 1.5% 9.2% 80% 37.8% 57.1% 60% 82.4% 40% 44.2% 19.5% 20% 0.9% 16.6% 14.2% 11.3% 0% CA (%) SA (%) TD (%) Source: RBI, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 11

  11. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector Deposit ownership Deposit ownership – – how does retail and corporate India save? how does retail and corporate India save? As on Mar-18, term deposits continue to be the most popular type of deposit across segments (58% of total deposits) as exhibited in Exhibit 26 below. On the CASA front, while private corporates tend to have higher investments in form of CA deposits (27% of private corporate deposits and ‘household-others’), individual households generally have an inclination towards SA deposits (45% of their total deposits). 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 Accordingly, as on Mar-18, the overall current account deposits were dominated by private corporates (incl. financials) and household – others (largely sole proprietors / partnership firms) accounting for 44% and 24% share of total CA deposits respectively. Individuals continue to form a significant part of the overall savings account and term deposits (77% of total SA deposits and 49% of total term deposits). Distribution of deposits by ownership Distribution of deposits by ownership (Mar Exhibit 25. Exhibit 25. Distribution of deposits by ownership Distribution of deposits by ownership (Mar Exhibit 26. Exhibit 26. (Mar- -18) 18) (Mar- -18) 18) Government Sector Private Corporates (incl Fin) Households - Individuals CA (%) SA (%) TD (%) 100% Households - Others Foreign Sector 100% 90% 1% 5% 7% 9% 5% 90% 9% 80% 8% 24% 52% 54% 80% 58% 70% 61% 71% 70% 74% 14% 60% 60% 49% 55% 50% 77% 50% 40% 19% 40% 44% 2% 30% 30% 32% 27% 45% 20% 20% 16% 20% 24% 27% 27% 1% 10% 10% 17% 14% 14% 12% 2% 11% 10% 2% 0% 0% Government Sector Private Corp (incl Fin) Households - Individuals Households - Others Foreign Sector Total CA (%) SA (%) TD (%) Total Deposits (%) Source: RBI, JM Financial # household others – largely sole proprietors/ partnership firms Source: RBI, JM Financial # household others – largely sole proprietors/ partnership firms Deposits of household - individuals have seen a robust CAGR of 12% over FY14-18 led by 16% CAGR in savings account deposits and followed by 10% CAGR in term deposits. However, the CAGR in deposits for private corporates was low at 4% - one possible driver could be the slower pace of their earnings growth over FY14-18 (NIFTY FY14-18 earnings CAGR at c.7%). Interestingly, private corporates were able to maintain a strong pace of growth in the current account deposits (15% CAGR) while the slowdown was witnessed in term deposits growth (4% CAGR). Similar trend was seen for household – others (largely sole proprietors / partnership firms) with a 13% and 2% CAGR in current account and term deposits respectively leading to a moderate overall deposit CAGR of 5% in FY14-18. Deposits growth CAGR (FY14 Deposits growth CAGR (FY14- -18) Exhibit 27. Exhibit 27. CA Growth CAGR (FY14 Growth CAGR (FY14- -18) for Exhibit 28. Exhibit 28. 18) 18) for private corporates private corporates SA TD Total Deposits CAGR FY14-18 Total (INR bn) 20% 18% 20000 18% 15% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 15% 14% 13% 15000 12% 12% 12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8% Nifty earnings CAGR (FY14-18) 10000 8% 7% 5% 5% 6% 5% 4% 5% 4% 3% 5000 4% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0 Government Sector Private Corp (incl Fin) Households - Individuals Households - Others Total CA SA TD Total Deposits Source: RBI, JM Financial Source: RBI, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 12

  12. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector Retail deposits Retail deposits – – How do banks fare? How do banks fare? Retail funding profile (Retail deposits as % of deposits + borrowings) for coverage banks is given in the below exhibit. Retail funding profile Retail funding profile ( (as as % of deposits + % of deposits + borrowings) Exhibit 29. Exhibit 29. 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 borrowings) for coverage banks (Mar for coverage banks (Mar- -18) 18) 100% 95% 85% 90% 76% 80% 71% 69% 67% 67%64% 70% 63% 64% 62% 56% 60% 52% 50% 42% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% FB DCBB AXSB KMB YES CUBK CNBK ICICIBC BANDHAN IIB PNB HDFCB BOB SBIN Source: RBI, JM Financial The market share of CASA + retail term deposits for our coverage banks is given in the below exhibit. As on Mar-18, among large private sector banks, HDFCB is the leader with a market share of 7% followed by AXSB and ICICIBC at 5% each. New-age private sector banks, KMB, Yes and IIB have lower market share at 2%, 1% and 1% respectively. Among, PSU banks, SBIN had a dominant market share of 28% (4x the market share of next bank HDFCB). Other public sector banks, BOB, PNB and CNBK had a market share of 5% each as on Mar-18. CASA + Retail TD market share for coverage banks (Mar CASA + Retail TD market share for coverage banks (Mar- -18) Exhibit 30. Exhibit 30. 18) YES 1% AXSB 5% HDFCB 7%ICICIBC KMB 2% IIB 1%FB 5% Others 33% 1% DCBB 0% BOB 5% PNB 6% CUBK 1% CNBK 5% BANDHAN 0% SBIN 28% Source: RBI, JM Financial; System CASA and Retail TD is taken as sum of system CASA + ‘Household – Individuals TDs’ JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 13

  13. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector Where do Where do banks get their deposits from? banks get their deposits from? Market Share of coverage banks across top states covering c.80% of overall Market Share of coverage banks across top states covering c.80% of overall system Exhibit 31. Exhibit 31. Data as on Data as on Mar Mar- -19 19 Mar Mar- -19 19 Mar Mar- -19 19 Maharas Maharas htra htra Private Banks Private Banks HDFC Bank 12.7% 8.7% 7.9% Axis Bank 7.0% 3.8% 4.2% ICICI Bank 7.8% 5.3% 5.2% Yes bank 0.0% 3.3% 1.5% IndusInd Bank 3.6% 2.5% 1.0% Kotak Bank 3.6% 3.2% 2.5% Bandhan Bank 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% DCB Bank 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% City Union Bank 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Federal Bank 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% PSU Banks PSU Banks SBI 15.1% 13.8% 21.1% BOB 4.1% 4.0% 15.3% PNB 1.4% 6.6% 1.8% Canara Bank 3.4% 6.4% 1.4% Mkt share of Mkt share of coverage banks coverage banks Source: RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 system deposits deposits Dec Dec- -18 18 Dec Dec- -18 18 Mar Mar- -18 18 Mar Mar- -19 19 Mar Mar- -19 19 Dec Dec- -18 18 Mar Mar- -19 19 Dec Dec- -18 18 Sep Sep- -18 18 State State Delhi Delhi Gujarat Gujarat Bihar Bihar Haryana Haryana UP UP WB WB TN TN Karnataka Karnataka Kerala Kerala AP AP Telangana Telangana 2.5% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 31.6% 3.2% 11.6% 5.0% 14.3% 4.5% 10.0% 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 15.4% 1.2% 11.1% 3.3% 4.7% 2.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 21.7% 7.0% 12.1% 2.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 24.5% 3.1% 3.7% 2.0% 7.2% 3.6% 5.3% 0.9% 0.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 0.7% 18.9% 2.2% 1.4% 7.5% 8.2% 3.5% 5.6% 1.5% 0.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 21.1% 1.3% 0.7% 13.0% 3.0% 2.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 15.0% 27.0% 1.4% 1.4% 6.1% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 30.5% 1.3% 0.6% 2.7% 8.3% 4.3% 6.4% 1.4% 0.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 31.7% 1.8% 1.6% 2.9% 60% 60% 58% 58% 63% 63% 60% 60% 66% 66% 56% 56% 53% 53% 54% 54% 59% 59% 60% 60% 46% 46% 62% 62% HDFC HDFC Bank Axis Bank Axis Bank – – State Exhibit 32. Exhibit 32. Bank – – State State- -wise deposit breakup wise deposit breakup Exhibit 33. Exhibit 33. State- -wise deposit breakup wise deposit breakup Maharashtra Gujarat UP WB TN Karnataka Delhi Kerala Haryana Telangana Others Maharashtra Gujarat UP WB TN Karnataka Delhi Kerala Haryana Telangana Others 18% 26% 29% 31% 4% 4% 2% 3% 2% 5% 11% 6% 2% 4% 8% 5% 7% 8% 4% 5% 6% 5% Source: Company, RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial Source: Company, RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial ICICI Bank ICICI Bank – – State Yes Bank Yes Bank – – State Exhibit 34. Exhibit 34. State- -wise deposit breakup wise deposit breakup Exhibit 35. Exhibit 35. State- -wise deposit breakup wise deposit breakup Maharashtra Gujarat UP WB TN Karnataka Delhi Kerala Haryana Telangana Others Maharashtra Gujarat UP WB TN Karnataka Delhi Kerala Haryana Telangana Others 21% 25% 27% 33% 4% 5% 4% 6% 0% 2% 4% 10% 3% 6% 3% 2% 6% 2% 5% 7% 17% 6% Source: Company, RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial Source: Company, RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 14

  14. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 IndusInd Bank IndusInd Bank – – State Exhibit 36. Exhibit 36. Kotak Kotak Bank State- -wise deposit breakup wise deposit breakup Exhibit 37. Exhibit 37. Bank – – State State- -wise deposit breakup wise deposit breakup 11% Maharashtra Gujarat UP WB TN Karnataka Delhi Kerala Haryana Telangana Others Maharashtra Gujarat UP WB TN Karnataka Delhi Kerala Haryana Telangana Others 23% 4% 1%3% 36% 41% 1% 2% 16% 1% 15% 8% 9% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% Source: Company, RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial Source: Company, RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial Bandhan Bank Bandhan Bank – – State Exhibit 38. Exhibit 38. SBI SBI – – State State- -wise deposit breakup wise deposit breakup Exhibit 39. Exhibit 39. State- -wise deposit breakup wise deposit breakup 0% 8% 12% Maharashtra Gujarat UP WB TN Karnataka Delhi Kerala Haryana Telangana Others Maharashtra Gujarat UP WB TN Karnataka Delhi Kerala Haryana Telangana Others 2% 5% 35% 38% 8% 6% 43% 5% 5% 6% 4% 1% 5% 6% 1% Source: Company, RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial Source: Company, RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 15

  15. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector Which are the top districts Which are the top districts for deposits in India While the concentration of deposits in top districts has come down over the last few years, the top 20 districts continue to be the major deposit generating pockets for the country contributing c.51% of the overall deposits (c.58% as on Mar-14). Within the top 20 districts, the top 7 cities (Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Kolkata, Hyderabad and Pune) contribute the majority of the deposits at 40% as on Mar-19 (48% as on Mar-14). Top 20 districts for deposits in India Top 20 districts for deposits in India Exhibit 40. Exhibit 40. 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 for deposits in India? ? Mar Mar- -14 14 Mar Mar- -19 19 Deposits Deposits CAGR CAGR FY14 FY14- -19 District District State State Total Deposits Total Deposits (INR bn) (INR bn) 16,698 % of % of deposits deposits 21% Deposit per Deposit per Capita Capita (‘000s) 710 Total Deposits Total Deposits (INR bn) (INR bn) 18,488 % of % of deposits deposits 15% Deposit per Deposit per Capita Capita (‘000s) 787 19 (‘000s) (‘000s) Mumbai (incl. Suburban & Thane) Maharashtra 2% New Delhi (incl. NCR) NCT Of Delhi 9,562 12% 479 14,421 11% 723 9% Bangalore (Urban & Rural) Karnataka 3,515 4% 331 6,114 5% 576 12% Chennai Tamil Nadu 2,512 3% 541 3,348 3% 721 6% Kolkata West Bengal 2,207 3% 491 3,001 2% 667 6% Hyderabad Telangana 1,831 2% 464 2,690 2% 682 8% Pune Maharashtra 1,497 2% 159 2,544 2% 270 11% Ahmedabad Gujarat 1,158 1% 160 1,849 1% 256 10% Lucknow North 24 Parganas Uttar Pradesh West Bengal 885 669 1% 1% 193 67 1,452 1,182 1% 1% 316 118 10% 12% Patna Bihar 616 1% 105 1,165 1% 199 14% Jaipur Rajasthan 612 1% 92 1,094 1% 165 12% Ernakulam Kerala 568 1% 173 966 1% 294 11% Khurda Odisha 503 1% 223 950 1% 422 14% Vadodara Gujarat 563 1% 135 838 1% 201 8% Medchal - Malkajgiri Telangana 433 1% 193 767 1% 341 12% Nagpur Maharashtra 465 1% 100 756 1% 162 10% Thiruvananthapuram Kerala 454 1% 137 753 1% 228 11% Bhopal Chandigarh Madhya Pradesh Chandigarh 570 484 1% 1% 240 459 714 686 1% 1% 301 650 5% 7% Total of Top 20 Districts Total of Top 20 Districts 45,802 45,802 58 58% % 341 341 63,778 63,778 51% 51% 475 475 7% Overall Deposits Overall Deposits - - India India 79,557 79,557 66 66 1,25,587 1,25,587 104 104 10% Source: RBI, JM Financial; Population as per 2011 census JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 16

  16. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector Cracking the deposit code in major metros Cracking the deposit code in major metros – – How has the pie been split in split in MMR MMR and Delhi? and Delhi? 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 How has the pie been Bank Bank- -wise market share of deposits for wise market share of deposits for MMR Exhibit 41. Exhibit 41. pie) pie) Bank Bank- -wise market share of deposits for wise market share of deposits for Delhi Exhibit 42. Exhibit 42. pie) pie) MMR (INR 18trn (INR 18trn Delhi (INR (INR 11 11trn trn 9% HDFC Bank HDFC Bank 16% 4% Axis Bank Axis Bank ICICI Bank ICICI Bank 5% 34% Yes Bank Yes Bank 3% 9% 42% IndusInd Bank IndusInd Bank 3% Kotak Bank Kotak Bank 3% SBI SBI 9% BOB BOB 14% PNB PNB 3% 4% 5% Canara Bank Canara Bank 1% 4% 4% 5% 6% Others Others 7% 10% Source: Company, RBI, respective SLBC, JM Financial; MMR includes suburban Mumbai and Thane Source: Company, respective SLBC, RBI, JM Financial; Delhi excludes Gurugram and Noida Deposits from Deposits from MMR Exhibit 43. Exhibit 43. MMR and Delhi and Delhi as % of overall deposits as % of overall deposits Mumbai Delhi 40% 38% 34% 35% 28% 28% 30% 27% 16% 26% 25% 24% 24% 25% 23% 17% 22% 7% 13% 11% 8% 3% 20% 18% 10% 12% 15% 13% 15% 6% 21% 21% 10% 20% 16%18% 6% 17% 15% 15% 12% 12% 5% 10% 10% 2% 4% 2% 2% City Union Bank 0% Canara Bank Yes Bank PNB Kotak Bank Federal Bank HDFC Bank IndusInd Bank DCB Bank BOB Bandhan Bank ICICI Bank SBI Axis Bank Source: Company, RBI, SLBC, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 17

  17. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector Valuation Table Valuation Table 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 JMFL : Valuations JMFL : Valuations – – Indian Banking sector Indian Banking sector Exhibit 44. Exhibit 44. Private Banks Private Banks Axis Bank HDFC Bank ICICI Bank (standalone) Kotak Mahindra Bank (consol.) Yes Bank Indusind Bank Federal Bank DCB Bank City Union Bank Bandhan Bank PSU Banks PSU Banks State Bank of India Punjab National Bank Canara Bank BVPS BVPS FY20E FY20E 301 619 181 346 134 544 73 106 76 99 EPS EPS FY20E FY20E 45 93 21 44 12 90 8 14 11 21 P/B P/B FY20E FY20E 2.7 4.0 2.4 4.3 0.8 2.6 1.5 2.2 2.9 5.5 P/E P/E FY20E FY20E 18.1 26.7 20.8 33.5 8.7 16.0 13.0 16.6 20.5 25.7 Target Target (INR) (INR) CMP (INR) CMP (INR) Reco. Reco. FY19 FY19 259 548 163 303 116 440 67 93 66 94 FY21E FY21E 347 709 202 399 148 640 81 123 88 125 FY19 FY19 18 77 5 38 7 60 6 11 9 16 FY21E FY21E 56 112 27 55 16 114 11 19 13 29 FY19 FY19 3.1 4.5 2.7 4.9 0.9 3.3 1.6 2.5 3.3 5.8 FY21E FY21E 2.3 3.5 2.2 3.7 0.7 2.2 1.3 1.9 2.5 4.4 FY19 FY19 44.4 32.1 84.0 39.3 14.6 23.8 17.4 22.4 23.4 33.3 FY21E FY21E 14.3 22.2 16.5 27.0 6.7 12.6 9.6 12.6 17.1 19.1 808 2,486 438 1,484 109 1,436 109 235 218 544 BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY 865 2,600 460 1,435 265 1,860 120 250 220 710 362 81 285 BUY HOLD HOLD 385 95 300 220 89 394 248 99 406 277 112 459 1 29 10 38 34 12 62 1.6 0.9 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.6 NM NM 61.9 12.5 8.3 7.6 10.6 6.6 4.6 -22 5 Source: Company, JM Financial JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 18

  18. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 APPENDIX I JM Financial Institutional JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited (formerly known as JM Financial Securities Limited) Corporate Identity Number: U67100MH2017PLC296081 Corporate Identity Number: U67100MH2017PLC296081 Member of BSE Ltd., National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Ltd. Member of BSE Ltd., National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Ltd. SEBI Registration Nos.: Stock SEBI Registration Nos.: Stock Broker Broker - - INZ000163434, Research Analyst INZ000163434, Research Analyst – – INH000000610 Registered Office: 7th Floor, Cnergy, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025, India. Registered Office: 7th Floor, Cnergy, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025, India. Board: +9122 6630 3030 | Fax: +91 22 6630 3488 | Email: jmfinancial.research@jmfl.com | www.jmfl.com Board: +9122 6630 3030 | Fax: +91 22 6630 3488 | Email: jmfinancial.research@jmfl.com | www.jmfl.com Com Compliance Officer: Mr. Sunny Shah | Tel: +91 22 6630 3383 | Email: sunny.shah@jmfl.com pliance Officer: Mr. Sunny Shah | Tel: +91 22 6630 3383 | Email: sunny.shah@jmfl.com Securities Limited INH000000610 Definition of ratings Definition of ratings Rating Rating Buy Buy Hold Hold Sell Sell Meaning Total expected returns of more than 15%. Total expected return includes dividend yields. Price expected to move in the range of 10% downside to 15% upside from the current market price. Price expected to move downwards by more than 10% Research Analyst(s) Certification Research Analyst(s) Certification The Research Analyst(s), with respect to each issuer and its securities covered by them in this research report, certify that: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures Important Disclosures This research report has been prepared by JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited (JM Financial Institutional Securities) to provide information about the company(ies) and sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its associates solely for the purpose of information of the select recipient of this report. This report and/or any part thereof, may not be duplicated in any form and/or reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of JM Financial Institutional Securities. This report has been prepared independent of the companies covered herein. JM Financial Institutional Securities is registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a Research Analyst and a Stock Broker having trading memberships of the BSE Ltd. (BSE), National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (MSEI). No material disciplinary action has been taken by SEBI against JM Financial Institutional Securities in the past two financial years which may impact the investment decision making of the investor. JM Financial Institutional Securities renders stock broking services primarily to institutional investors and provides the research services to its institutional clients/investors. JM Financial Institutional Securities and its associates are part of a multi-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, brokerage and financing group. JM Financial Institutional Securities and/or its associates might have provided or may provide services in respect of managing offerings of securities, corporate finance, investment banking, mergers & acquisitions, broking, financing or any other advisory services to the company(ies) covered herein. JM Financial Institutional Securities and/or its associates might have received during the past twelve months or may receive compensation from the company(ies) mentioned in this report for rendering any of the above services. JM Financial Institutional Securities and/or its associates, their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) covered under this report or (c) act as an advisor or lender/borrower to, or may have any financial interest in, such company(ies) or (d) considering the nature of business/activities that JM Financial Institutional Securities is engaged in, it may have potential conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report on the subject company(ies). Neither JM Financial Institutional Securities nor its associates or the Research Analyst(s) named in this report or his/her relatives individually own one per cent or more securities of the company(ies) covered under this report, at the relevant date as specified in the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The Research Analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and members of their household are prohibited from buying or selling debt or equity securities, including but not limited to any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position issued by company(ies) covered under this report. The Research Analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report or their relatives (as defined under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014); (a) do not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered under this report or (b) did not receive any compensation from the company(ies) covered under this report, or from any third party, in connection with this report or (c) do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Research Analyst(s) are not serving as an officer, director or employee of the company(ies) covered under this report. While reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this report, it does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to herein, and JM Financial Institutional Securities does not warrant its accuracy or completeness. JM Financial Institutional Securities may not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This report is provided for information only and is not an investment advice and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 19

  19. Indian Banking Sector Indian Banking Sector 01 July 2019 01 July 2019 The investment discussed or views expressed or recommendations/opinions given herein may not be suitable for all investors. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. The information contained herein may be changed without notice and JM Financial Institutional Securities reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as they may deem fit from time to time. This report is neither an offer nor solicitation of an offer to buy and/or sell any securities mentioned herein and/or not an official confirmation of any transaction. 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Additional disclosure only for U.S. persons: Additional disclosure only for U.S. persons: JM Financial Institutional Securities has entered into an agreement with JM Financial Securities, Inc. ("JM Financial Securities"), a U.S. registered broker-dealer and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") in order to conduct certain business in the United States in reliance on the exemption from U.S. broker-dealer registration provided by Rule 15a-6, promulgated under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), as amended, and as interpreted by the staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") (together "Rule 15a-6"). This research report is distributed in the United States by JM Financial Securities in compliance with Rule 15a-6, and as a "third party research report" for purposes of FINRA Rule 2241. 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As a result, this report is for distribution only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the "Financial Promotion Order"), (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) ("high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc.") of the Financial Promotion Order, (iii) are outside the United Kingdom, or (iv) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) in connection with the matters to which this report relates may otherwise lawfully be communicated or caused to be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as "relevant persons"). This report is directed only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this report relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Additional disclosure only for Canadian persons: Additional disclosure only for Canadian persons: This report is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or a public offering of the securities described herein in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Under no circumstances is this report to be construed as an offer to sell securities or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction of Canada. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made. This report is not, and under no circumstances is it to be construed as, a prospectus or an offering memorandum. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed upon these materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein and any representation to the contrary is an offence. If you are located in Canada, this report has been made available to you based on your representation that you are an ‚accredited investor‛ as such term is defined in National Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions and a ‚permitted client‛ as such term is defined in National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations. Under no circumstances is the information contained herein to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada nor should it be construed as being tailored to the needs of the recipient. Canadian recipients are advised that JM Financial Securities, Inc., JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited, their affiliates and authorized agents are not responsible for, nor do they accept, any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this research report or the information contained herein. JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 20

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