Operational Verification at HNMS

1. Operational Verification at HNMS Flora Gofa WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

2. Add COSMOGR and high res graph… COSMOGRhr: 0.02deg COSMOGR: 0.0625deg COSMOGR Grid Area WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

3. Temp 2m - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer Underestimation of Temp, mainly in winter. error ~2o, worse with 7km by ~0.5o Clear diurnal cycle WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

4. Wind Speed - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer Overestimation of wind (DJF,SON) 2-2.5deg bias similar attitude of 2 models WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

5. Wind Speed 2m Temp WINTER Underestimation of Temp during midday hours, overetimation of wind, large error in analysis field WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

6. 2m Temp Wind Speed SUMMER WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

7. DewP Temp - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer Underestimation of DewT Bias ~2.5deg, lower in the winter 3km output reduced error WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

8. Cloud Cover - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer Similar error for all seasons and for both models WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

9. 12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km FALL 60-70% POD , above 50% up to 1mm, drops fast after Higher POD,FAR for HR model WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

10. 12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km WINTER Lower POD in the winter for both models WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

11. 12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km FALL Slight overestimation for lower thresholds Similar ETS for both resolutions WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

12. 12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km WINTER Clear overestimation for lower thresholds Similar ETS for both resolutions WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

13. WAM Conditional Verification Extracting information for relevant performance of weather parameters The input from modelers and forecasters is necessary for identifying and testing hypotheses. WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010

14. 2mT vs2mT in overcast conditions2mT overcast/no wind Fall Winter Spring Summer

15. 2mT vs2mT in skyclear conditions2mT skyclear/no wind Fall Winter Spring Summer

16. CAPE>50 CAPE<50 Very high POD values for unstable conditions, FAR not so different

17. CAPE<50 CAPE>50 WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

18. WS - Z0<2.5 WS - Z0>2.5 Wind Speed with respect to Roughness Length Strong underestimation of wind in positions with small roughness length and increased error WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

19. Td, 2mT – dry soil Td, 2mT – wet soil Td: Higher error in dry soil and larger underestimation 2mT: Higher error in wet soil and larger understimation W_SO Water content of first soil layer(kg/m2) 1cm. WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

20. Post-processed Products Verification Kalman filtering is applied operationally to NWPs at the nearest model location: 2m maximum and minimum temperature forecasts Statistical analysis of maximum and minimum values of these parameters (both modeled and filtered)

21. Upper Air Verification WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

22. GEOPOTENTIAL Winter Spring Summer WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

23. TEMPERATURE WInter Spring Summer WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

24. Wind Speed WInter Spring Summer WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

25. Relative Humidity WInter Spring Summer WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

26. Buoys Wave Atmospheric Model Driven by COSMOGR (7km) output Verification of significant wave height/direction

27. Weather Defined Verification WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011

28. 4. N-NW anticyclonic 1. Zonal cyclonic 7. S-SW cyclonic 12. Stationary anticyc 2. Zonal anticyclonic 8. S-SW cyclonic 3. N-NW cyclonic 6. N-NE anticyclonic 11. Cut-off 5. N-NE cyclonic 9. S-SE cyclonic WAM |Graphs?? 10. S-SE anticyclonic

29. Weather Classification: 01/09/2009-30/06/2011=577days

30. Temp 2m Higher underprediction of T2m for northern systems (NW, NE) and lower for southern systems

31. Wind Speed 10m Reduced RMSE for windspeed in almost all AC circulations

32. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 For southerly weather systems the cloud cover amount is greater overestimated….

33. Annual FBI exhibits underpretection in the lower precipitation thresholds when present is an anticyclonic circulation

34. Annual ETS scores slightly better for SW systems

35. Thank you!