LEARNING OBJECTIVES

1. LEARNING OBJECTIVES • Understand standard calculations of national availability. • Be aware of existing methods for estimating crop • production. • Identify methods for calculating household level food • stocks. • Be aware of key aspects to consider in planning • availability assessments.

2. INTRODUCTION What is food availability? It is the amount of food that is physically present in a country or area through all forms of domestic production, stocks, commercial imports and food aid. There are various methods and tools to assess food availability...

3. FOOD BALANCE SHEET The Food Balance Sheet is a key tool used to look at food availability at a national level. It describes all the factors which constitute the total availability of food in a country over a selected twelve month period.

4. FOOD BALANCE SHEET Not all the available food in a country is available for human consumption. The Food Balance Sheet incorporates estimates of “losses” into the supply estimate to get availability of food for human consumption.

5. FOOD BALANCE SHEET The food available for human consumption is compared to the food needed for that consumption (consumption requirements) over the selected period. FOOD NEEDED FOOD AVAILABLE The Food Gap is the difference between the estimated food available for human consumption and the consumption requirements. The estimate of a gap is an average across the population.

6. FOOD BALANCE SHEET FBSsections: FOOD BALANCE SHEET Most Food Balance Sheets (FBS) are estimated for a 12 month time. The FBS usually looks into the future and can be updated as further information is available. • Supply • Production • Changes in stocks • Uses • Human consumption needs • Losses and seeds • Animal feeds and processing • Expected Imports • Expected Commercial • Food aid received/pledged • Uncovered Food Gap

7. FOOD BALANCE SHEET Very few places have the all data needed to estimate a comprehensive FBS including all food commodities, so you may need to focus on just the key staple foods in the country. On the other hand, accounting for as many staples as possible is important, because just looking at one commodity alone will give a false view of food gaps.

8. FOOD BALANCE SHEET A country may produce all of a given commodity that it needs; in that case, it is said to be “self-reliant”. However, with external trade as a possibility, there are many other sources of supply. A policy of self-reliance can be costly for a country if it means producing at any cost to meet the needs.

9. HOW THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET IS USED A Food Balance Sheet (FBS) can be very useful, but it also has some limitations: FBS CAN HELP FBS CANNOT HELP - Governments in understanding the food situation. - Governments which may use its results to set international trade policies. - Food aid agencies in assessing the feasibility of local purchases of supplies for distribution within the country or elsewhere in the region. - The interpretation of overall price movements. • If prices change, the FBS cannot incorporate: • all the actions that consumers take. • the changes in import/export. • Since the FBS is usually based on a 12 month period, it cannot take account of: • seasonality; and • local differences.

10. CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION PROCEDURES Estimating crop and livestock production may contribute to understanding food availability. This relationship can be used to estimate the production of a given crop. TOTAL PRODUCTION = AVERAGE YIELD * TOTAL PLANTED AREA • Yield is the total amount produced divided by the land • area, a measure of land productivity.

11. CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION PROCEDURES There are different methods to estimate yields: • Extension Agents • Crop Cutting • Regression Analysis

12. CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION PROCEDURES • An advanced methodconsist in • mapping with Geographic • Information Systems (GIS) • and Remote Sensing with • satellite imagery from • METEOSTAT and other satellites. Agencies focused on these technological advances: • NOAA • NASA • FAO/GIEWS

13. CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION PROCEDURES FAO often conduct Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAM), for which the main responsibility is to derive estimates of production for use in the Food Balance Sheet. Steps of carrying out a CFSAM: 1 Identify information and methods already available in the country. 2 Determine the key agricultural zones within the country. 3 Assess production in each zone.

14. HOUSEHOLD STOCKS ESTIMATION Availability can also be assessed at household level, estimating what each household has in stock of the main foods. The assessment can be done at sub-country level. Since seasonal shifts can be very important, baseline information of a “normal year” is necessary for interpreting current levels of stocks.

15. HOUSEHOLD STOCKS ESTIMATION The methods for assessing household stocks are: • Household surveys • Production minus estimated consumption can be used to estimate projected stocks. • Rapid appraisals • Teams are sent out to talk with community leaders, groups of farmers and local experts. The combination of thetwo methods may provide the best information.

16. AVAILABILITY AND MARKETS The existence of food doesn’t imply a good distribution of food through space and time. Most often the supplies needed are obtained through the market or through relatives who buy supplies elsewhere.

17. KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT Usefulconsiderations when planning an availability assessment: TIME ACCURACY SKILLS NEEDED RESOURCES AVAILABLE

18. KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT TIME In situation of emergency,people may need food as soon as possible. With a lengthy survey people will have to wait before the decision is made to send in food aid. Using previous estimates and information will assist you in narrowing down the considerations in an assessment. In developing an information system a longer term perspective may be critical to your ability to respond quickly.

19. KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT ACCURACY • Determining the level of precision is a balancing act. • A key feature is honesty in reporting. • A first step is thoroughly documenting your assumptions and the basis for your estimates. • Often analysts use previous estimates as a basis for projecting values for the coming year.

20. KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT SKILLS NEEDED • Selecting appropriate methods also includes assessing the skills of your statistical unit or agency. • The various methods using data collection and estimations require many skills. You need people who can get the information and interpret what they obtain.

21. KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT RESOURCES AVAILABLE • time; • transport for the staff to get to the field; • financial resources to pay travel and other cash expenses; • computers and staff to conduct analysis; • computer software for the analysis. It is important to assess your resources, such as: • Identify regional resources that may be available and can complement local resources. • Use the Web.

22. SUMMARY • Food availability is the amount of food that is physically present in a country or area through all forms of domestic production, stocks, commercial imports and food aid. • The Food Balance Sheet describes all the factors which constitute the total availability of food in a country and allows us to differentiate between the estimated and the available food (Food Gap). • Estimating crop and livestock production may contribute to understanding food availability. This usually implies calculating average yields. • There are different methods to estimate yields. • Household level availability is important especially for agricultural households and can be assessed through periodic large household surveys and rapid appraisals. • In planning an availability assessment, you should consider some key aspects related to time, level of accuracy, skills needed and resources available.

23. IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE... Online Resources: FAO (2002). Food Balance Sheets: History, sources, concepts, and definitions. Paper #5 for the Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization. (http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/5_FBS_concepts.pdf) FAO (2002). Food Balance Sheets and Food Consumption Surveys: A Comparison of Methodologies and Results. Paper #7 for the Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries. Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA). (http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/7_FBS_FCS.pdf) FAO (2002). Food Balance Sheets: Applications and Uses. Paper #6 for the Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries. Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA). (http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/6_FBS_uses.pdf) Gross, R., H. Schoeneberger, H. Pfeifer, H-J. A. Preuss (2000). The Four Dimensions of Food and Nutrition Security: Definitions and Concepts. Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries. Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA). (http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/P-01_RG_Concept.pdf) Aube, Thierry (2005). Improving the Methodology for Joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions: Estimating Commercial Imports. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS. (http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools/EstimatingCommercialImports.pdf)

24. IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE... Donovan, Cynthia, Megan McGlinchy, John Staatz and David Tschirley (2005). Emergency Needs Assessments and the Impact of Food Aid on Local Markets. Desk Review prepared for WFP/SENAC. Rome, World Food Programme, Emergency Needs Assessment Branch (ODAN). (http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp086537.pdf ) FAO Statistics Division. Website on Supply Utilization Accounts and Food Balance Sheets in the Context of a National Statistical System. (http://www.fao.org/es/ess/suafbs.asp) FAO (2000). Handbook for defining and setting up of a food security information and famine early warning system (FSIEWS). (ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/003/X8622e/X8622e00.pdf) Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) (1996). Guidelines for Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS. (http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools/CFSAME1996.pdf) Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) (2006). Crop Prospects and Food Situation in Southern Africa, April 2006. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS. (http://www.fao.org/Giews/english/shortnews/SouthernAfrica24April06.pdf) Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) (2004). Overview of Methodology on CFSAMs (PowerPoint presentation). Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS (http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools.htm) WFP. 2005. Market Assessment: Pakistan Earthquake Affected Areas. December. Rome: World Food Programme. (http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp084203.pdf)

25. IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE... WFP. 2005. Guatemala: Market Profile for Emergency Food Security Needs Assessments. Rome: WFP, ODAN Emergency Needs Assessments Branch. (http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp086536.pdf) Fewsnet FEWSNET, MACO, and ZNFU (2004). Review of the Zambia National Food Balance Sheet. Lusaka, FEWSNET, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MACO), Zambian National Farmers Union (ZNFU), Food Reserve Agency (FRA). (http://www.fews.net/resources/gcontent/pdf/1000429.pdf) FEWSNET, et al. 2005-2006. Cross Border Study Reports for Southern Africa and for Zambia. (http://www.fews.net) FEWSNET. 2005. Informal Cross Border Food Trade in Southern Africa. Issue 1. (http://www.fews.net/resources/gcontent/pdf/1000532.pdf) Terpend, Noëlle (2006). An Assessment of Knowledge about Trade and Markets Related to Food Security in West Africa. Joint FEWS NET and WFP study. Rome: World Food Programme (WFP), Emergency Needs Assessment Branch (ODAN). (http://www.fews.net/resources/gcontent/pdf/1001068.pdf) Other Jacobs, Krista, and Daniel A. Sumner. (2002) The Food Balance Sheets of the Food and Agriculture Organization: A Review of Potential Ways to Broaden the Appropriate Uses of the Data. A Review Sponsored by FAO. Davis, California: University of California, Davis. (http://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/uploads/grad_papers/fbs_review.pdf )

26. IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE... SADC Food Security Early Warning System (2006). SADC Food Security Update – No. 3.06 (May). Gaborone: SADC Released: Gaborone, Food Security Early Warning System. (http://www.reliefweb.int/library/documents/2006/sadc-southernafrica-15jun.pdf) Tschirley, David (2006), Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement: An Assessment of Experience in Africa and Elements of Good Donor Practice. by David Tschirley. 2007. MSU IDPW 91, East Lansing, Michigan. (http://aec.msu.edu/fs2/papers/idwp91.pdf) Vulnerability Assessment Committee. 2005/6. Vulnerability Assessment Committee Reports from Southern Africa. (http://www.sahims.net) Additional Reading: WFP and FEWS NET. 2006. Evaluation of the WFP/FEWS NET Informal Cross-Border Trade Monitoring System. Draft Final Report. June. Report for WFP through Acacia Consulting. Lusaka, Zambia: World Food Programme (WFP) and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET). Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (2005). Provisional Results of the Harvest Outcome Analysis. Lilongwe, Malawi: Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC), in collaboration with FEWS NET, Save the Children, SADC FANR Vulnerability Assessment Committee and the World Food Programme. Maxwell, D and Watkins, B. (2003), Humanitarian information systems and emergencies in the Greater Horn of Africa: logical components and logical linkages. Disasters March 2003, 27(1):72-90.