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Part 1 – Let ’ s Think About Risks

Part 1 – Let ’ s Think About Risks. Dr. Arshad Ahmad Email: arshad@cheme.utm.my. Topic 1 – Let ’ s Talk About Risks. Life is full of risks. Life is Full of Risks RMS Titanic: 1912. 15 April 1912 British passenger liner Collision with iceberg, 600 km south of Newfoundland

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Part 1 – Let ’ s Think About Risks

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  1. Part 1 – Let’s Think About Risks Dr. Arshad Ahmad Email: arshad@cheme.utm.my

  2. Topic 1 – Let’s Talk About Risks Life is full of risks

  3. Life is Full of RisksRMS Titanic: 1912 • 15 April 1912 • British passenger liner • Collision with iceberg, 600 km south of Newfoundland • More than 1500 died out of 2224 passengers and crew • Discovered in 1985.

  4. Life is Full of RisksTenerife Airport Disaster, 1977 23 March 1977 Fatal runaway collision between 2 Boeing 747 (Pan Am & KLM) Canary Islands, Spain Both aircraft destroyed, killing all 248 aboard the KLM flight and 335 of 396 aboard the Pan Am flight. Accidents during takeoff

  5. Life is Full of RisksToxic Release, Bhopal, 1984 • Release of Toxic Gas • 40 tons Methyl Isocynate escape from Union Carbide Plant • Immediate cause : 500L seepage • Erupts and release fumes • Aftermath • 3000 died : respiratory failure • Thousands more died in weeks that followed • 500,000 suffer • USD470mil spent

  6. Life is Full of RisksTank Farm Explosion, Mexico City, 1984 • LPG distribution plant, 25 years old plant built to 1950 API standards of the U.S. • Located a few km. north of Mexico City (Pop = 16 Million). • 15 of 48 Vessels BLEVE In Domino Fashion • 550 people killed., 2,000 people receive severe burns, 7,231 people classed as injured.

  7. Life is Full of RisksNuclear Reactor Accident, Chernobyl, 1986 26 April 1986 at the Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor, Ukrain Large area of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus evacuated, 336,000 people resettled. Fewer than 50 direct death but, thousands of cancer related cases Severe damage to the environment

  8. Life is Full of RisksFire & Explosion in Oil Rig, Scotland, 1988 • Night of July 6, 1988 • Oil rig disaster in North Sea 1988 • 167 out of 229 people died • Initial explosion followed by a fierce fire which, in turn, triggered off a further series of explosions • Flames could be seen 100 km away • Cause of death 109 out of 137 recovered bodies inhalation of smoke & fire. Few died of burns. • “Jump and try or fry and die.” • USD 3.4 Billion

  9. Life is Full of RisksExxon Valdez Oil Spill, Alaska, 1989 • On March 24, 1989 • Oil tanker Exxon Valdez struck a reef in Alaska's Prince William Sound • .257,000 to 750,000 barrel of crude oil spill • USD 2.5 billion

  10. Life is Full of RisksIndian Ocean Tsunami, 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, Sunday 26 Dec 2004 Earthquake richter scale 9.1–9.3 Killing over 230,000 people in 14 countries, majority in Banda Acheh, followed by Sri Lanka, India and Thailand

  11. Life is Full of RisksSugar Refinery Explosion, Georgia, 2008 February 7, 2008 Sugar dust explosion in a sugar refining plant Dust acummulated in enclosed conveyer – primary explosion, followed by secondary from sugars elsewhere other 14 deaths and 38 injured, including 14 with serious and life-threatening burns.

  12. Life is Full of RisksMacondo Well Blowout, Gulf Mexico, 2010 • April 2010, The Deepwater Horizon - floating semi-submersible drilling unit Well blowout causes gas release, followed by explosion and fire. 11 killed, 16 injured. • Oil leaks at 8,000 barrels per day up to 17,000 barrels.

  13. Life is Full of RisksNuclear Meltdown following Tsunami, Japan, 2011 March 11, 2011. Nuclear meltdown following earthquake and Tsunami 6 reactors designed by GE, Fukushima Daiichi Full meltdown of reactor 1,2,3 No immediate deaths due to direct radiation at least six workers exceeded lifetime legal limits for radiation more than 300 received significant radiation doses Impacted Japan’s Energy Policy

  14. Life is Full of RisksExplosion due to train derailed. 6 July 2013 A parked train 7 km away with 72 carloads of crude oil derailed into town. BLEVE & Fire. 40 buildings flattened, 13 dead, 37 missing, 2000 people forced to leave home.

  15. Life is Full of RisksKorean Ferry Sank, April 2014 • April 16, 2014, Korea • MV Sewol sank • 477 passengers and crew, including 325 high school students. • Around 300 people died in the disaster • Captain and 3 crew charged with murder

  16. Life is Full of RisksMH370 – Location unknown & MH17 – Ukraine, 2014 March 8, 2014 - MH370 (KL-Beijing) Boeing 777-200ER – Loss somewhere. 12 crews, 227 passengers from 15 nations. Very expensive search continues. Speculated to be in Southern Indian Ocean. July 24, 2010. MH17 (Amsterdam-Kuala Lumpur) Boeing 777-200ER. Shot Down in Ukraine, crashed in Torez, Donesk Oblast, 40 km from Russian border. Killing all 15 crew and 283 passengers. Within 5 months, 298 + (239)? Killed in Malaysia Airline

  17. Life is full of risks… However, risks cannot be eliminated ! Risks can be managed and mitigated... Risks of Personal Accidents Risks in Financial Activities Risks in Process Plants Risks in Foods Insurance Risks Risks of Workplace hazards Etc…

  18. Risk Analysis is needed to assists decision making

  19. “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”Sun Tzu, Art of War

  20. Class Workshop 1: Dealing with Risks • Form your Work Group – You will be working together throughout this semester • Brainstorm on Risks in Life • List down risks in daily life • Categorize these risks into common theme • Sort them from highest to lowest risks

  21. Project No - 1 • Describe the chronology of events • Discuss the impact/aftermath of the event • Identify lessons learned from the event • Propose preventive and mitigating measures for the event • List of Event • Air Asia Flight 8501 disaster (2015) • Tianjin Explosion (2015) • MBCA Kim-Nirvana Ferry Disaster (2015) • Amtrak Train Derailment (2015) • Typhoon Goni (2015) • Karachi Bus Shooting (2015)

  22. End of Part 1

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