Climate Variability and Predictability Program

1. Climate Variability and Predictability Program Jim Todd Program Manager, CVP NOAA Climate Program Office 2nd NCPO-NWS Dialogue Meeting January 4, 2006 Silver Spring, Maryland

2. CVP is a major supporter of CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability), an international, interdisciplinary research project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability of the slowly varying physical components of the climate system, i.e., those that occur on seasonal, interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales. Through this program, CVP leverages significant multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DOE) and international support for important activities. NOAA CVP and CLIVAR

3. Climate Variability and PredictabilityMajor Foci • Large-scale, recurrent patterns (“modes”) of global climate variability (ENSO, AO/NAO, PDV, TAV, MOC, global monsoon) and their teleconnections from subseasonal to decadal time scales, including predictability studies • Modeling/diagnostics of coupled ocean-atmosphere-(land) interactions, including studies of stratosphere/troposphere interactions • Improving the understanding of current climate trends (e.g., ocean warming) in order to exploit inherent predictability • Climate process teams (CPTs) - incorporating observationalists and modelers to advance our understanding and allow for better parameterizations of climate processes in models • Studies of the global tropical SST • Abrupt climate change studies (ARCHES)

4. Global Ocean Climate Observing System Global System Status against GCOS Implementation Plan Goals

5. Goal - To increase our understanding of tropical and subtropical cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity, and reduce the large uncertainty in GCM simulations of these feedbacks: Diagnose in detail the reasons for different behavior of NCAR vs. GFDL low cloud distribution with 2xCO2 Try to constrain the relevant cloud feedbacks using current and historical data, especially the low cloud feedbacks relevant to (1). Improve relevant GCM parameterizations using best available physics, focusing especially on cloud microphysics, shallow and deep cumulus convection, and cloud-topped PBLs. Low-latitude Cloud Feedbacks on Climate Sensitivity CPT Lead PI: Christopher S Bretherton, University of Washington

6. Ocean Eddy Mixed-Layer Interactions CPT Lead PI: Raffaele Ferrari (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) • Goals - 1) to gain a better understanding of the effect of transient eddy motions in the upper ocean and their impact on ocean-atmosphere interactions, 2) to develop parameterizations of these effects for IPCC-class climate models based on the knowledge acquired from recent observations and numerical studies Examine the statistics of mesoscale eddy fluxes in the upper ocean from existing SeaSoar profiles, moored data and meteorological data Run a hierarchy of numerical models of increasing complexity to study the interaction between mean ocean circulation, the lateral eddy transports and the boundary layer turbulence in the upper ocean Develop new parameterizations of mesoscale transports which incorporate knowledge gained from the observations and process studies Implement and test the new parameterizations in ocean GCMs and in coupled O-A models

7. Deep Ocean Gravity Current Entrainment CPT Lead PI: Sonya Legg (Princeton University/GFDL) • Goal - to use knowledge gained from recent observations of dense overflows and laboratory and numerical process studies to improve representation of dense gravity currents and their entrainment in climate models. Examine the entrainment in recent observations, especially those of Denmark Straits overflow, Faroe Bank Channel, Mediterranean Outflow, Red Sea Overflow and Antarctic Slope overflows, as well as laboratory and numerical process studies Develop new and enhanced parameterizations of entrainment which incorporate knowledge gained from the observations and process studies Implement and test the new parameterizations in ocean GCMs

8. US CLIVAR Climate Model Evaluation Project (CMEP) • US CLIVAR recommended that NSF, NOAA, NASA, and DOE have a program to evaluate US coupled climate model simulations of 19th and 20th century • 61 proposals submitted - 19 funded • List of awards and abstract found at: www.usclivar.org/science.html • CMEP IPCC AR4 Workshop in Hawaii…over 150 international participants

9. US CLIVAR Interagency Group David Legler (Director, US CLIVAR Project Office) Cathy Stephens (Staff Associate, US CLIVAR Project Office) Don Anderson, NASA Anjuli Bamzai, DOE Jay Fein, NSF Jin Huang, NOAA Eric Itsweire, NSF Ming Ji, NOAA Mike Johnson, NOAA Eric Lindstrom, NASA Jim Todd, NOAA US CLIVAR IAG meets every month on average. Peter Schultz (US Climate Change Science Program Office Coordinator) serves as the interface between the Climate Variability and Change (CVC) Interagency Working Group and the US CLIVAR IAG

10. CVP and the NOAA Strategic Planning Process OUTCOMES • A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions • Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions Observations & Analysis Climate Forcing Predictions & Projections Climate & Ecosystems Regional Decision Support Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond Programs

11. Functional Structure of Predictions and Projections Program (Seasonal to Interannual Component Shown) - DRAFT New and Improved Products Operational Forecasts: SI (PM-CPI) Information Products Test Bed - transition to operations • Systematic Research forecasts and applications (Research PMs) • establish systematic research multi-model SI prediction activity • establish multi-model Hydrological prediction system • Test application models – drought, fire, water • Improve consolidation tools • Routine Attribution reports • Multi-model-based hypothesis testing – predictability studies • Predictability studies • Experimental predictions • Studies supporting process research • Data Distribution capability Model & Data Assimilation System Development – in Environmental Modeling Program • Process research, hypothesis testing and diagnostic studies • Targeted efforts for improving climate models (CPTs, parameterizations,…) • Field experiments in support of model improvements & CPTs • global tropical interactions with new focus on Indo-Pacific and Atlantic regions • Monsoon related studies • Emerging applications (coastal ecosystems; air quality; fisheries,…) Observations, reanalyses, forcings research

12. US CLIVAR Summit - August 2005 • Following the US CLIVAR Summit meeting in August 2005, a revised framework for the US CLIVAR organization is being implemented • This reorganization will allow U.S. CLIVAR to • a) carefully plan, implement, and coordinate activities that are more responsive to research agency and US CCSP strategic objectives • b) stimulate a balanced climate research agenda that includes improving our understanding, prediction capabilities, and linkages to users of climate information and iii) engage the wider scientific community in pursuit of CLIVAR objectives. • This reorganization helps U.S. CLIVAR address more directly NOAA’s strategic needs. Several NOAA employees (GFDL, CDC and NCEP) are participating now as US CLIVAR Panel members.

14. Phenomena, Observations and Synthesis Panel Co-Chairs: Sumant Nigam (Maryland) and John Marshall (MIT) • Goals • Advance understanding of coherent variability in present and future climate • Improve and develop data for climate studies • Sustain and improve the Global Climate Observing System • Assess the role of the Indian Ocean in global climate • Improve surface fluxes • Assess processes controlling rapid climate shifts Other members: Jim Carton (Maryland), Dave Easterling (NCDC), Sarah Gille (SIO), Dave Gutzler (UNM), Gabriel Lau (GFDL), Dimitris Menemenlis (NASA), Walt Robinson (Illinois), Sig Schubert (NASA), Eli Tziperman (Harvard)

15. Predictability, Prediction and Applications Interface Panel Co-Chairs: Lisa Goddard (IRI) and Alex Hall (UCLA) • Goals • Foster improved practices in the provision, validation, and uses of climate information and forecasts through coordinated participation within U.S. and international climate science and applications communities. • Further fundamental understanding of climate predictability at time scales from seasonal to centennial • Improve prediction of droughts, climate extremes and changes in extreme weather events • Improve prediction of monsoon systems • Enable use of CLIVAR science for decision support Other members: Tom Delworth (GFDL), Marty Hoerling (CDC), Wayne Higgens (NCEP), Ben Kirtman (COLA), Randy Koster (NASA), Simon Mason (IRI), Nate Mantua (UW), Jerry Meehl (NCAR), Kelly Redmond (DRI), Gavin Schmidt (NASA)

16. Process Studies and Model Improvement Panel Co-Chairs: Meghan Cronin (PMEL) and Paul Schopf (GMU) • Goals • Reduce major systematic errors and biases and uncertainties in GCMs used for climate variability prediction and climate change projection • Use process studies to quantify climatically important processes and to provide guidance for extending long-term in situ and satellite observations • Ensure that process studies lead to climate model improvement • Facilitate collaborations with other national and international partners such as international CLIVAR, GEWEX, OCCC. Other members: Raffaele Ferrari (MIT), Jim Hack (NCAR), Dick Johnson (CSU), Terry Joyce (WHOI), Bill Large (NCAR), Sonya Legg (Princeton), Hua Lu Pan (NCEP), Ken Sperber (Livermore), Shang-Ping Xie (UH)

17. Pacific Upwelling and MixingPhysics (PUMP) • Designed to improve our understanding of the complex of mechanisms that connect the thermocline to the surface in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. • The goal is to observe and understand the interaction of upwelling and mixing with each other and with the larger-scale equatorial current system. • The outcome of PUMP will be advancements in our ability to diagnose and model both the mean state of the coupled climate system in the tropics and its interannual and interdecadal variability.

18. Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE) Goal To advance the understanding of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes and improve climate prediction for the Tropical Atlantic region The proposed observing system components include: continuation of PIRATA moorings, PIRATA extensions along 23W and 5-10E, equatorial subsurface moorings along 23E and 10W, island meteorological and tide gauge stations, enhanced float/drifter coverage in the eastern TA, repeated atmospheric sounding along 23W, XBT lines, and selected glider transects.