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Modeling for Temperature TMDLs and QUAL2Kw Demo

Modeling for Temperature TMDLs and QUAL2Kw Demo. Ben Cope EPA Region 10. channel width. outflows. inflows. TRAVEL TIME + VELOCITY. depth. slope. CLIMATE. Modeling Temperature. cloud cover, air temperature, relative humidity. vegetation height, density and overhang. SOLAR RADIATION.

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Modeling for Temperature TMDLs and QUAL2Kw Demo

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  1. Modeling for Temperature TMDLs and QUAL2Kw Demo Ben Cope EPA Region 10

  2. channel width outflows inflows TRAVEL TIME + VELOCITY depth slope CLIMATE Modeling Temperature cloud cover, air temperature, relative humidity vegetation height, density and overhang SOLAR RADIATION SHADE Hyporheic and thermal exchanges

  3. Temperature Models • 1D, steady state, diel • e.g., QUAL2Kw • 24-hour repeating pattern • “Min, Max, and Mean temperature are X, Y, and Z under August 20 conditions” • 1D or 2D or 3D, dynamic • e.g., CE-QUAL-W2 • Simulation of long periods of time • Some or all boundaries are variable • “See plot for one year simulation of temperature”

  4. Control Volume (stream segment in 1D model) Surface Heat Exchange Downstream Outflow Upstream Inflow T = T + delta T Drains/Diversions Tributary Groundwater gain/loss Pt Source

  5. Model development • Quality Assurance Project Plan • Model setup • Select domain, segmentation • Input tributary/point source/diversion locations • Select simulation date(s) • Input boundary conditions for simulation date(s) • E.g., weather, flow, upstream boundary temperature

  6. Model Setup • Headwater/Boundary Conditions: • Flow • Temperature • Channel geometry

  7. Model Testing/Calibration • Goal • model predicts observed temperatures • Method • adjust most uncertain inputs within reasonable bounds to reduce error • rate parameters (literature ranges as a guide) • unmeasured boundary conditions (e.g., groundwater) • Conclusion • (Hopefully) agency decides that model is ready for TMDL

  8. Typical model application for a TMDL • Prediction “scenarios” • Step 1: change from current to low flow conditions • Step 2: simulate “natural” conditions • Full shade • Point sources and dams out • Tributaries at estimated or simulated natural temperatures • Step 3: run sequential scenarios, adding human-caused heat sources and tracking impact

  9. Climate Change Wrinkle • Normally we simulate temperatures using historic weather and flow conditions • Climate change affects both of these “baselines” • We can substitute new flows and weather into the model based on predicted climate change • Need technical “recipe” for model inputs • Need TMDL policy approach to climate change

  10. QUAL2Kw • 24 hour simulation, repeating until steady • “A day in the life of a stream…” • Excel VBA code • Spreadsheet inputs, underlying mathematical code • Ease of use and transparency • Demo – Bear Creek, WA • developed by TeizeenMohamedali, Ecology

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