Challenges & Problems of Short-Term Statistics (STS)

1. UNECE Workshop on Short-Term Statistics (STS) and Seasonal Adjustment 14 – 17 March 2011, Astana, Kazakhstan Challenges & Problems of Short-Term Statistics (STS) Based on the UNECE paper on Short-Term Economic Statistics in the CIS and Western Balkans Carsten Boldsen Hansen Economic Statistics Section, UNECE

2. Agenda • Introduction • Availability of STS • Publication policy • Data collection and compilation of time series • Seasonal adjustment • Conclusions

3. Introduction • A survey on seasonal adjustment in 2008 • Challenges with STS were analyzed in 2007 and 2009 via web sites of NSOs on: • Consumer price index • Producer price index • Producer price index for services • Industrial production index • Retail trade turnover • Turnover of services • Volume of services production • Wages and salaries

4. Introduction Countries included in the assessment: Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Republic of Moldova • Montenegro • Russian Federation • Serbia • Tajikistan • The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia • Turkmenistan • Uzbekistan • Ukraine

5. Introduction What constitutes international comparability in STS? • Coverage • Classifications • Methodological and computational practices • Provision of fixed based and/or discrete time series • Provision of long coherent time series • Provision of seasonal adjusted series • Dissemination of documentation

6. Availability of Time Series Availability of time series with more than six observations

7. Availability of STS on Services

8. Availability of STS on Services • Share of services (incl. trade) in GDP: • 52% 1996 -> 57% 2008 (in the EECCA countries) • Lack of data for services • Problems for estimating GDP • 8/17 countries publish wages and salaries • Output indicators rarely produced • 7 countries publish turnover or volume of services • Indicators do not cover the whole service sector • Indicators limited to transport, hotels and restaurants

9. Availability Availability of short-term indicators for services (2009)

10. Publication Policy Issues • Almost all countries publish advance release calendars • A huge step forward in just a few years • Most countries archive releases to websites • Time series not easily accessible • Few countries have a published revision policy • Metadata have been improved • Timeliness of releases is often very good

11. Timeliness The average timeliness of STS indicators

12. Publication of Metadata • 15 of 17 surveyed countries provide some methodological information in English • Countries subscribing to IMF’s SDDS or GDDS have more comprehensive set of metadata • For statistics not included in SDDS/GDDS • Very little data for retail trade and services • Many details regarding production methods not available in English

13. Publication Methodology • Revisions are a necessary feature of STS • Data are rarely published in time series format • Instead data for a few months is published • Seasonally adjusted data can only be published as long time series • Only half of the countries publish indices with a fixed reference period • Change from previous period should only be calculated from seasonally adjusted data!

14. Methodology and Comparability Production of STS according to international standards (2009)

15. Data Collection Methodology • Many have cut-off samples or totals • Over sampling for some countries and indicators? • Some use registers to reduce sample sizes and increase efficiency • Register data requires substantial IT resources and implementation of new production methods • NSOs may have difficulties in accessing registers? • May provide a solution for developing new statistics?

16. Compilation Methodology • Good knowledge of international standards exists • Significant methodological differences exist: • price indices, retail trade turnover, wages and salaries • Some incoherences in definitions • Definitions of turnover, wages and salaries • Treatment of VAT, subsidies and delivery costs • Need to standardize definitions also in the EU • Almost all countries use internationally comparable classifications for economic activities (ISIC/NACE)

17. Time Series Methodology Production of cumulative data • Suitable for national use only • Summarizes development during the current year • When data are available for April -> information is provided from January to April • Length of the reference period changes with each release(Jan-Feb > Jan-Mar > Jan-Apr…) • Cumulative data are usually only additional information, not the only type of data • A huge step forward: done by a majority of countries

18. Comparison of Series – Cumulative Data Industrial Production and Production of Electricity in Belarus Not easy to say which industry is doing better – only the change from previous year visible

19. Comparison of Series – Monthly Data Industrial Production and Production of Electricity in Belarus Seasonality interferes in comparing monthly data – seasonal adjustment needed

20. Time Series Methodology Problems with cumulative data • International comparison and analysis not possible • Slow identification of turning points • Change from the previous period in seasonally adjusted data provides faster indications of turning points • User cannot derive a correct monthly time series • Revisions to the earlier periods cannot be matched to the correct periods of time • Time series from cumulative data have incorrect seasonality

21. From Cumulative to Monthly Cumulative Industrial Production Data (estimates of monthly values)

22. Time Series Methodology • Fixed base indices and/or absolute values for discrete periods are recommended • Time series to be linked or calculated back when base year is changed • Not to shorten the series or to leave breaks (the series should not start from its b.y.) • Previous periods need to be revised to come up with reliable time series • Currently 10 countries publish time series of more than 24 observations

23. Where is the Economy Going? Frequent changes of base year without links or backcalculation

24. Seasonal Adjustment • SA data calculated by 11/17 countries • Need for training, materials/guidelines and support on methodological and practical issues • Expansion of number and length of seasonally adjusted series • More metadata on SA needed for the users • Development of release practices of SA • Standardization of compilation and release practices would enhance quality of SA

25. Conclusions of the Assessment • Need for longer time series • Historical time series to be build and maintained • Backcalculation or linking in base year changes • Improve international comparability • Seasonally adjusted data would enable comparison • More comparable information on the service sector • Review data collection techniques • Introduce sampling (and allow revisions) • Use administrative sources • Publication policy • New release practices (SA, time series, revisions) • More detailed metadata