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July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

Illinois Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) Modeling of Policy Proposals. July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision. Policy Proposals. Policy Proposals. Policy Proposals. Portfolio Scenarios. Portfolio Runs: (In addition to the Reference Case)

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July 10, 2007 DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

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  1. Illinois Governor Rod R. BlagojevichClimate Change Advisory Group(ICCAG)Modeling of Policy Proposals July 10, 2007DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

  2. Policy Proposals

  3. Policy Proposals

  4. Policy Proposals

  5. Portfolio Scenarios • Portfolio Runs: (In addition to the Reference Case) • All strategies approved for modeling by the ICCAG (“All-In”) excluding CT-05-12. • (Note – CT-10-16 included in “All In” but CT-05-12 excluded at present) • All-In with linkage to the RGGI states. • All-In: Assume high oil and natural gas prices (based on RGGI high prices) • All-In minus the Cap and Trade (CT-10-16) proposal

  6. Portfolio Scenarios • Optional Runs: (if time and resources permit) • For each run all Policies with the following changes: • Minus proposal EP-50-09, CCS Portfolio Standard. • Minus cap and trade plus a modification of Proposal EP-05-05, Carbon Performance Standards, to include existing sources as well as new sources (effectively Carbon Performance Standard replaces Cap and Trade). • Apply cap and trade to existing sources only (carbon performance standards still apply to new sources). • For Proposal TR-10-18, California Vehicle Emissions Standards, assume change to vehicle purchase price as per auto manufacturers’ projections. • With Proposals CI-40-02 (Tree Planting), CI-10-21 (No-till Farming), and CI-30-11 (Methane Capture) eligible as offset projects under Cap and Trade but not eligible for other new incentives.

  7. Illinois GHG Emissions – Base Case

  8. Illinois GHG Emissions- with Policies

  9. Illinois GHG Emissions- with Policies

  10. Policy “Leakage” • A portion of emission reductions associated with some policies may occur outside of Illinois. • Model tracks emissions in Illinois, surrounding region and balance of continent. • Additional analysis will be provided to identify policies subject to such “leakage”

  11. Policy “Leakage” • Initial policies identified as affected by “leakage” • Electric energy efficiency policies – power may still be generated for sale outside of Illinois.

  12. Questions?

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