1 / 25

Maryland’s Scenario Building Efforts: The National Center for Smart Growth

Maryland’s Scenario Building Efforts: The National Center for Smart Growth. Uri Avin, FAICP Practice Leader, Regional Growth Management, PBPlacemaking Baltimore, MD. Maryland State Planning Statutes. § 5-602.

winola
Download Presentation

Maryland’s Scenario Building Efforts: The National Center for Smart Growth

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Maryland’s Scenario Building Efforts: The National Center for Smart Growth Uri Avin, FAICP Practice Leader, Regional Growth Management, PBPlacemaking Baltimore, MD

  2. Maryland State Planning Statutes § 5-602. (a) Plan required.- The Department shall prepare and from time to time revise a plan or plans for development of the State. The plan or plans collectively shall be known as the State Development Plan.

  3. Reality Check PLUS • Series of unique GROWTH VISIONING EXERCISES held in four regions of the state. • Key Principles: • Statewide • Privately funded • Action Oriented © Paul Coelus, Waterford, Inc. 2006

  4. NATIONAL CENTER FOR SMART GROWTH Research and Education at the University of Maryland • The URBAN LAND INSTITUTEBaltimore District Council • 1000 FRIENDS of Maryland • Major Funders: Lincoln Institute, HBAM; Cafritz, Prince, Enterprise, Campbell, Abel, Chesapeake Bay Trust… • More than 100 ORGANIZATIONS representing community, business, civic, housing, educational, smart growth and environmental interests were involved in this effort.

  5. Hagerstown Community College

  6. Baltimore

  7. Post-event ANALYSIS COMPARISON SCENARIOS • Existing Conditions • COG forecasts • Build-out • Reality Check Results

  8. Compared with Buildout and COG forecasts, RCP results would have.. • More jobs and housing close to transit; • More jobs and housing inside priority funding areas; • Less development on green infrastructure; and • Less new impervious surfaces.

  9. The Maryland Scenario Project

  10. The purpose of the Maryland Scenario Project is…. • To take an informed and careful look at alternative long-term future scenarios; • To conduct a quantitative assessment of each scenario; • To identify where and how public policy decisions will increase the likelihood of more desirable scenarios.

  11. The Time is Right for Several Reasons • New administration with interest in information-driven policymaking. • Strong momentum from Reality Check exercise. • Mounting evidence Smart Growth not having intended effects. • Critical policy decisions lie just ahead. • Because we can.

  12. Critical Policy Decisions • How to finance Bay clean up? • Where to invest next in transit? • Whether to build more bridges? • Whether to toll existing roads? • How to target economic development? • Where to invest in land conservation? • How to manage drinking water supply? • How to revitalize Baltimore?

  13. Scenario Analysis Exercise • Identification of social, economic, environmental, political, and technological driving forces • Development of scenarios from those driving forces • Spatial articulation of alternative scenarios • Evaluation of spatial scenarios • Policy sensitivity analysis

  14. Elements of a Development Scenario • Certain Events • Continued job growth in the B/W corridor; • Rising energy prices; • Continued immigration • Uncertain Events • Economic revitalization of Baltimore; • High investment in intercity transit • Greater state land use intervention

  15. Elements of a Development Scenario • Certain Events • Continued job growth in the B/W corridor; • Rising energy prices; • Continued immigration • Uncertain Events • Economic revitalization of Baltimore; • Sea level rise making Eastern Shore uninhabitable • Rising incentives for development in PFAs

  16. Urban Diamond

  17. Ongoing and follow-up research • Energy consumption model • Environmental impact model • Fiscal impact model • Housing cost and housing type model • Statewide transportation model • Land use allocation model

  18. To where does this lead? • Short term products: • 3-5 clearly articulated statewide scenarios, an evaluation of each, and an analysis of major public policy choices • A set of data and tools for future policy analysis • Long term products: not yet clear; possibilities include…. • Nothing more • A set of policy recommendations • A statewide plan

  19. Partners for Land Use Success

  20. Project Team • National Center for Smart Growth • Gerrit Knaap, John Frece • Parsons-Brinckerhoff • Uri Avin, Marsha Kaiser • ECONorthwest • Terry Moore • Integrated Planning Consultants • Jason Sartori

  21. Funding Sources • Environmental Protection Agency • Lincoln Institute of Land Policy • Homebuilders Association of Maryland • Enterprise Community Partners • Chesapeake Bay Trust • Cafritz Foundation, Keith Campbell Foundation • Others in the works

More Related