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Why Romney Will Win

John Palatiello Republican Club of Greater Reston September 25, 2012. Why Romney Will Win. Remember?. Where were the polls on September 25, 2008?. Remember?.

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Why Romney Will Win

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  1. John Palatiello Republican Club of Greater Reston September 25, 2012 Why Romney Will Win

  2. Remember? • Where were the polls on September 25, 2008?

  3. Remember? • Four years ago today (September 25, 2008), the race between Barack Obama and John McCain was tied at 48%. It was the last time that McCain was competitive. • Source: Rasmussen

  4. Where is the race today? Rasmussen 46% Obama, 46% Romney Real Clear Politics average Obama 48.3% Romney 44.6% (Obama +3.7)

  5. Part 1: The Referendum

  6. Referendum on Obama • Typically, 1/2 to 2/3 of voters make up their minds before or during the national conventions, not the final weeks of the campaign • There is obviously a relationship between the incumbent’s job approval and reelection. • Since WWII, incumbent presidents with approval above 50 % have all won; those below 50 % have all lost The Road to the White House 2008: The Politics of Presidential Elections by Stephen J. Wayne

  7. Referendum on Obama • RCP average – 50% approve, 47% disapprove • Rasmussen – 48% approve, 50% disapprove

  8. Referendum on Obama • RCP average – 38% right direction, 55% wrong track • Rasmussen – 35% right direction, 58% wrong track

  9. Referendum on Obama • 52 % of likely voters say the nation is in “worse condition” now than in September 2008 • 54 % say Obama does not deserve reelection based solely on his job performance, just 40 % of voters said Obama deserves reelection. • Only 31 % of voters believe the nation is in “better condition,” while 15 % say it is “about the same” The Hill, Sept. 2 , Pulse Opinion Research

  10. Referendum on Obama • 56 % of likely voters believe Obama’s first term has transformed the nation in a negative way, compared to 35 % who believe the country has changed for the better under his leadership. • 20 % of Democrats say they feel Obama has changed the United States for the worse. Pulse Opinion Research for The Hill 1,000 likely voters on July 5

  11. Referendum on Obama • 50 % of people think Romney will bring a “significant” level of change — a finding that may reflect the desire among anti-Obama voters for a reversal of the president’s policies. Pulse Opinion Research for The Hill 1,000 likely voters on July 5

  12. Referendum on Obama • Conclusion: Romney has won the “referendum” phase of the campaign

  13. Part 2: The Choice

  14. The Choice • Was Romney’s “47%” comment a gaffe, or was he speaking the truth? A majority of Americans agree with Romney’s assessment, even if not the way he stated it.

  15. The Choice • Only 41 % say they have "some" or "a lot" of trust that the government can solve the nation's most important problems • 58 % say they have "not too much" or no trust that the government can solve these problems Princeton Survey Research Associates International , July 31, 2010

  16. The Choice • 55 % of Americans believe the federal government has too much influence over their lives • 36 % say the amount of influence is about right • Just 7 % say the government does not have enough influence. • Princeton Survey Research Associates, Sept 11-17, 2012

  17. The Choice • 64% of adults think there are too many Americans dependent on the government for financial aid • Just 10% think not enough Americans are dependent on the government, • 16% say the level of dependency is about right • Rasmussen, September 18-19, 2012

  18. The Choice • 54% of Americans believe the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses • 39% say the government should do more to solve the nation's problems • Gallup, September 6-9, 2012

  19. The Choice • Republicans • 82% government doing too much • 15% government should do more • Democrats • 24% government doing too much • 67% government should do more • Independents • 62% government doing too much • 29% government should do more • Gallup, September 6-9, 2012

  20. The Choice • 56% of self-employed workers favor Romney • 36% would pick Obama • Rasmussen, reported in Government Executive, August 21, 2012

  21. The Choice • 61% of small business owners plan to vote for Romney • That is more than double the 26 % who say they will vote for Obama • Manta Poll, reported in Washington Post, August 21, 2012

  22. The Choice • 54% of respondents who identified themselves as government employees favor giving Obama a second term • 37% say they plan to vote for Romney • Rasmussen, reported in Government Executive, August 21, 2012

  23. The Choice • 61 % of government workers believe the federal government has “become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests” • 74% of self-employed respondents believe the federal government has “become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests” • Rasmussen, reported in Government Executive, August 21, 2012

  24. The Choice • 59% of government employees say they trust the judgment of the American people over political leaders • 70% of entrepreneurs who hold that view • Rasmussen, reported in Government Executive, August 21, 2012

  25. The Choice • 47% of American adults think the government spends too much on poverty programs • 30% feel the government spends too little fighting poverty • 15% say the amount spent is about right. • Rasmussen, July 16-17, 2012

  26. The Choice • Americans favor repeal of Obamacare by a margin of 51.3% -44% (+7.3) • RCP average, June – September, 2012 • Favor repeal 53%, oppose repeal 43% (+10) • Rasmussen, September 15-16, 2012

  27. The Choice • 36% of public-sector respondents say the country is on the right track • 55 % of government workers think America is on the wrong track • 26 % of entrepreneurs say the country is on the right track • 70% of entrepreneurs think America is on the wrong track • Rasmussen, reported in Government Executive, August 21, 2012

  28. Part 3: The Election

  29. Transition:From Referendum to Choice • Romney Shifts Strategy • Mitt Romney's campaign "has concluded that the 2012 election will not be decided by elusive, much-targeted undecided voters -- but by the motivated partisans of the Republican base," BuzzFeed reports."This shifting campaign calculus has produced a split in Romney's message. His talk show interviews and big ad buys continue to offer a straightforward economic focus aimed at traditional undecided voters. But out stumping day to day is a candidate who wants to talk about patriotism and God, and who is increasingly looking to connect with the right's intense, personal dislike for President Barack Obama."

  30. Transition:From Referendum to Choice • Politico reports Romney is rolling out a new and broader strategy to make the election a referendum on "status quo versus change.""The shift, which is to include much more emphasis on Romney's policy prescriptions, means he is scrapping the most basic precept of his campaign. From the time he began contemplating running again after his loss in the 2008 primaries, Romney's theory of the case has been a relentless and nearly exclusive focus on the listless economy."

  31. Transition:From Referendum to Choice • Why is Romney making this transition? • There are very few undecided voters; the country is divided • Romney is the “change” candidate • Turnout is the key to victory

  32. Can Obama Replicate 2008? Obama ran an extraordinary campaign in 2008. But can he & the Democrats replicate the voter turnout model they implemented in 2008?

  33. Can Obama Replicate 2008? Hispanics Favor Obama But They're Not Fired Up • A NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Telemundo poll found Hispanics overwhelmingly approve of President Obama's recently announced immigration policy and give him a 40-point lead over Mitt Romney, 66% to 26%. • However, just 66% of Latinos put themselves in the "high-interest" category for the election. That's much lower than the average of 80% found for all adults.

  34. Can Obama Replicate 2008? Young voters prefer Obama, but enthusiasm has waned • A Harvard University Institute of Politics poll finds a clear preference for President Obama over Mitt Romney among younger voters, but there were indications that enthusiasm was sharply down among members of the so-called millennial generation, with the sagging economy the main factor.

  35. Can Obama Replicate 2008? Young voters prefer Obama, but enthusiasm has waned • Among voters age 18 to 29, Obama leads Mitt Romney 43% to 26% • The more troubling comparison for Obama is between now and 2008. On the whole, the poll found that young voters were less likely to vote and volunteer for campaigns, appearing more disconnected from politics as a whole and pessimistic about the economy.

  36. Can Obama Replicate 2008? Jewish voters prefer Obama, but enthusiasm and support are down • Obama still leads Romney 69 % to 25 % among Jewish voters in Florida • However, support for Obama among Jews in Florida is down 7 %age points on 2008, according to an American Jewish Committee (AJC) poll released September 20.

  37. Can Obama Replicate 2008? African-American voters still overwhelmingly prefer Obama, but enthusiasm is down, particularly among young voters • “A lot of our young people are actually not real excited about this election. They feel that there were some things that should have changed or should have happened over the last four years that didn’t, so they really don’t feel the need to get out and vote,’ says Jessica Brown of Tampa, Fla., national field coordinator for Black Youth Vote, a program for the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation (NCBCP).

  38. Can Obama Replicate 2008? African-American voters still overwhelmingly prefer Obama, but enthusiasm is down, particularly among young voters • The Rev. Anthony Evans, president of the National Black Church Initiative, says his organization has taken an informal poll of approximately 1,000 of its members and 23 % say they will not support President Obama because of his support of gay marriage, the slow growth of jobs in the Black community and various issues pertaining to his use of the military. • Overall African-American unemployment at 14.1 %, and African-American unemployment among those 16 to 19 years old at 39.3 %, nearly twice that of whites in the same age bracket

  39. Can Obama Replicate 2008? • Romney leading Obama among likely independent voters, 54% to 40% • Obama won independent voters won 52% - 44 % over McCain in 2008 • CNN/ORC International, September 11,2012

  40. Can Obama Replicate 2008? • Republicans leading Democrats among the most enthusiastic voters, 62% to 56% • CNN/ORC International, September 11,2012

  41. Can Obama Replicate 2008? • Voters ages 65 and older favor Romney by a 15-point margin, 54 % to 39% , and 86% plan to vote, compared with just 61 % of those ages 18-29. • Romney has a 1-point edge (46% to 45%) among those 30 to 49 years of age, but 80 % say they will definitely vote. • Among the 50-to-64 age group, Romney leads by 3 points, 48 % to 45% , with 86 % saying they will definitely vote. • Among Latinos, just 66 % say they definitely plan to vote, far below the 82 % level among non-Hispanic whites, who favor Romney by 17 points, 55% to 38%. • Charlie Cook, National Journal, September 2,2012

  42. Can Obama Replicate 2008? • Of those three critical groups from 2008, only African-Americans look reliably likely to turn in numbers in the same ballpark as four years ago. The Gallup polling shows Obama beating Romney by 90 % to 4 %, with 80 % of African-Americans interviewed saying they definitely plan to vote, almost the same level as the 82 % among whites. • In short, Obama has to fear that his good margins among young and Latino voters will be offset by their low volumes and that those groups simply won’t matter as much as they did four years ago. • Charlie Cook, National Journal, September 2,2012

  43. Part 4: Conclusions

  44. Look at Polls With Care • Whatever post-convention bounce Obama got was in the blue states. • Rasmussen poll (after DNC) results show that in the eleven swing states, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, which total 145 electoral votes, it’s Obama 46% and Romney 45%. In 2008, Obama won these states 53% to 46%.

  45. Look at Polls With Care • Many polls, particularly those showing Obama leading, over-sample Democrats and under-sample Republicans. • For a discussion, see: www.unskewedpolls.com • Romney 51.8, Obama 44 (R+7.8)

  46. Models • A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney. • Prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and DC, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

  47. Models • Electoral College – Romney 320 , Obama 218 • Popular Vote - Romney 52.9% , Obama 47.1% • “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” said Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder.

  48. Remember? • September 1980 Carter 44%, Reagan 40%, Anderson 9% • September 1988 Dukakis 48 %, Bush 47%

  49. Optimism? • Republicans are more motivated • Speaker Boehner was right – you don’t have to love Romney to vote for him • Republicans want Obama out • Obama Approval/Disapproval; Right Track/ Wrong Track; Unemployment; Issues all favor Romney • If Romney/Republicans do a better job of GOTV , Romney will win

  50. Questions? John Palatiellowww.jmpa.us(703) 787-6665

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