1 / 15

Trend analysis of HMs and POPs on the basis of measurements and modelling data

Trend analysis of HMs and POPs on the basis of measurements and modelling data. Victor Shatalov and Oleg Travnikov, MSC-E. Approach to the trend analysis. Trend (deleting “random” component). Main component (deleting seasonal component).

wjackie
Download Presentation

Trend analysis of HMs and POPs on the basis of measurements and modelling data

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Trend analysis of HMs and POPs on the basis of measurements and modelling data Victor Shatalov and Oleg Travnikov, MSC-E

  2. Approach to the trend analysis Trend (deleting “random” component) Main component (deleting seasonal component) Decomposition of time series:(modelling and measurement results) Measurements of B[a]P air concentrations at CZ3 Time series Main trend parameter: total reduction

  3. Monitoring: data for trend analysis Region covered by long-term measurement data Long-term data on POPs in air and precipitation at EMEP sites (PCBs, HCB and PAHs) No data on PCDD/Fs under EMEP

  4. Monitoring (CCC) Air concentrations of PCBs: declining trends at almost all sites Air concentrations of B[a]P: no clear time-trend at any station B[a]P in precipitation: small declining trends at few sites HCB, air: decreasing trend at NO42 in 1990s and increasing trend during the last decade

  5. Combined measurement/modelling trend analysis (PCBs) Comparison of observed and modelled air concentrations at particular locations Total reduction of PCB-153 calculated by trend analysis of measurement and modelling data Better agreement in second part of the period

  6. Long-term trends: EMEP domain (B[a]P) Modelling data Statistically significant increase at 95% confidence level from 2005 to 2012 (7%)

  7. 1.4 160 3 Total reduction 77% Total reduction 68% 140 1.2 Growth from 2005 to 2012 31% Growth from 2005 to 2012 22% 120 1 100 0.8 Air concentrations, ng/m Emissions, t/y 80 0.6 60 0.4 40 Value 0.2 20 Value Trend Trend 0 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 8 8 DE1 Total reduction 56% DE9 Growth from 2005 to 2012 29% Trend analysis of measurements at German sites 6 6 ng/l ng/l 4 4 2 2 Total reduction 57% Growth from 2005 to 2012 22% 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1997 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1996 Long-term trends: countries (B[a]P) Example: Germany Air concentrations (modelling) Emissions (official data)

  8. Long-term trends: countries (B[a]P) Increase of emissions (2005-2012) Croatia 38% Germany 37% Spain 32% Finland29% Portugal 28% Hungary 25% Estonia 19% Bulgaria 18% Poland14% Italy11% Lithuania10% Slovenia 6% United Kingdom5% Countries with statistically significant increase of B[a]P air concentrations from 2005 to 2012

  9. 100% B[a]P - no clear trend 90% 80% PCDD/Fs - EMEP: no data; National: decline 70% 60% 50% PCBs - declining trends 40% 30% HCB - increasing trend during the last decade (NO42, AMAP, IADN) 20% 10% 0% B[a]P PCDD/Fs PCB-153 HCB Long-term trends: EMEP domain Modelling data Monitoring data Total reduction of POP air concentrations in the EMEP domain from 1990 to 2012

  10. Monitoring of heavy metals within EMEP 8 sites 59 sites 45 sites 16 sites Long-term measurements of heavy metals (1990-2013) Pb in air Pb in precipitation

  11. - in air - in precip. - co-located Selected sites Pb, Cd Measured and modelled Pb air concentration 30 Zingst (DE9), Germany 3 20 Air concentrations, ng/m 10 Hg 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010 2011 2012 1992 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Measurements Modelling Historical trends of heavy metal pollution Joint analysis of measurements and modelling (1990-2012)

  12. Lead Cadmium Mercury Air conc. Wet dep. Air conc. Wet dep. Air conc. Wet dep. 100 80 60 Total reduction, % 40 20 0 -20 Modelling Modelling Measurements Measurements - Measurements - Modelling 100 100 De Zilk (NL91), Netherlands Hg wet deposition 0.6 /y 60 Cd air concentration Schmücke (DE 8), Germany 2 80 80 3 60 60 40 0.4 Wet deposition, g/km Total reduction, % Total reduction, % 40 40 Air concentrations, ng/m 20 0.2 20 20 0 0 0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2004 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 -20 -20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1999 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Modelling Modelling Modelling Modelling Measurements Measurements Measurements Measurements Trends: Joint analysis at monitoring sites Total reduction of heavy metal levels (1990-2012)

  13. 0.25 Pb wet deposition (2012) Total reduction: 78% /month Lead 0.20 2 0.15 0.10 Mean deposition, kg/m 0.05 0.00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 5.0 Cadmium Total reduction: 53% /month 4.0 2 3.0 2.0 Mean deposition, g/m 1.0 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2.0 Total reduction: 23% Mercury /month 2 1.5 1.0 Mean deposition, g/m 0.5 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 1998 1990 1992 1994 1996 Trends: Changes in the whole EMEP domain Long-term trends of Pb, Cd, Hg deposition (1990-2012) Total reduction (%)

  14. Country mean deposition of Cd (1990-2012) Reduction of heavy metal deposition (1990-2012) 10 France 8 100 6 EU28 Mean deposition, g/km2/month EECCA 80 4 2 60 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 40 Total redcution, % 10 20 Armenia 8 0 6 Mean deposition, g/km2/month Pb Cd Hg 4 -20 2 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Trends: Changes in individual countries

  15. Summary • Pollution levels of Pb, Cd and Hg in the EMEP region reduced by 80%, 55% and 25% during 1990-2012 • Substantial decrease for the same period was estimated for PCBs and HCB (80-90%), PCDDF (50%), whereas for PAHs it was insignificant (below 30%) • Maximum reduction of HMs and POPs pollution took place in early 1990-s, in the second half of the period the reduction slowed or even changed to growth (PAHs and HCB) • Decline of HM and POP levels in EECCA countries is generally smaller than that in EU • Main factors controlling long-term changes of HM and POP pollution are anthropogenic and secondary emissions and intercontinental transport of long-living species (Hg, HCB, PCBs, PCDDFs) Information on long-term trends of HMs and POPs have been prepared for the CLRTAP Assessment 2016 and discussed at TFMM (Krakow, May 2015) and Expert Group meeting (Moscow, August 2015)

More Related