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General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025

General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025. Agenda. Background Historic National Trends Forecast Overview DC Area Trends and Forecast. Background. What do we forecast? Airline traffic and capacity General Aviation activity Aircraft operations

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General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025

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  1. General Aviation Forecast Overview2008-2025

  2. Agenda • Background • Historic National Trends • Forecast Overview • DC Area Trends and Forecast

  3. Background • What do we forecast? • Airline traffic and capacity • General Aviation activity • Aircraft operations • Done at both national and individual airport level • What are the forecasts used for? • Facility Planning • ATC Staffing • Regulatory analysis • FAA Budgets • Investment Analysis • Baseline Comparisons for Airport Master Plans

  4. General Aviation Trends 2000-07 • Modest growth in fleet and hours • Total fleet growth of 6.4% (13,500 A/C) • Turbo Jet A/C up 41% to 11,000; Piston A/C flat • Hours up 3.1% • Turbo Jets 66% higher; Pistons (including rotorcraft) down 13.3% • Activity down • Ops at FAA and Contract Towers down 16.9% • Instrument Ops down 19.5% • En Route A/C Handled down 5.1% • Sales and Deliveries growing since 2003 • Jet sales up 83%; piston sales up 62% • Jet deliveries up 112%; piston deliveries up 37%

  5. GA Forecast Overview 2008-25 • Growth in high end of market • Total fleet is 27% higher by 2025 (61,000 increase) • Piston A/C (including rotorcraft) up 15,000 (0.5% per year) • Turbo Jet A/C up 18,500 (5.6% per year) • Biz Jets increase by 10,500 (3.8% per year) • VLJs total 8,145 by 2025 • Hours are 70% higher in 2025 (3% per year) • Turbo Jets grow 7.6% per year • Pistons (including rotorcraft) grow 1.1% per year • Operations growth reflects hours growth • Tower operations increase 26% by 2025 (1.3% per year) • En Route aircraft handled up 68% (3% per year)

  6. General Aviation Fleet Actual Forecast 2007-25 Avg. Annual Growth Piston: 0.5% Turbine: 3.7% Exp, LSA, Oth: 3.0%

  7. General Aviation Flight Hours Actual Forecast 2007-25 Avg. Annual Growth Piston: 1.1% Exp, LSA, Oth: 4.1% Non VLJ Turbine: 2.8% VLJs: 28.4%

  8. Tower Operations Actual Forecast 2008-25 Avg. Annual Growth Commercial: 2.7% Gen Aviation: 1.3% Military: 0.0%

  9. DC Area Trends

  10. DC General Aviation Trends 2000-07 • Activity down overall • GA operations down 12.2%; slightly more than total ops • Largest declines at DCA, HEF, and MTN • Itinerant down 30% while local up 7.7% • Biz Jet Activity up 7.5%; peaked in 2005 • IAD up 112%; DCA down 95% • Share of GA activity increased from 8.6% to 10.5% • DCA had most activity in 2000 (40% of total); IAD in 2007 (65.8% of total)

  11. DC Area Tower Operations

  12. DC Area General Aviation Operations

  13. General Aviation Biz Jet Operations

  14. DC Area Tower Forecast 2008-25 • Activity up 42% by 2025 (2% annual growth) • Slightly higher than national growth • Commercial growth 2.4% per year • GA growth of 1.5% per year • Exceed 2000 peak in 2014

  15. DC Area Tower Operations Actual Forecast 2008-25 Avg. Annual Growth Commercial: 2.4% General Aviation: 1.5% Military: 0.0%

  16. Things to look for • Congestion – will it be as bad as in 2007? • Environmental concerns will continue to be in the forefront of aviation debates. • Strength of demand given high oil prices and a slowing economy. • Success of on-demand air taxi operators and use of VLJs.

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