Approaches to Developing National Estimates

1. Approaches to Developing National Estimates UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections

2. Approaches to Developing National Estimates • Estimate should be owned by the National AIDS Control Program • National consensus workshop • Involve key experts • Bring all expertise about surveillance data • Improve surveillance system • Release of estimate can be advocacy opportunity

3. National Workshop • Surveillance methodology • Surveillance data • Discussion and agreement on methodology • Agreement on major trends • Review of results • How to use results • Key dissemination messages • Public seminar

4. Methodology • Generalized epidemics • Urban/rural • Province • Site specific with district mapping • Consider characteristics of sites • Concentrated epidemics • National or provincial • Risk groups to include • Estimation of risk group size • Range of estimates

5. HIV Sentinel Sites HIV Sentinel Sites in Malawi Kaporo Rumphi DH Mbalachanda HC NkhataBay DH Urban Semi-urban Rural St. John’s Hosp. St. Anne’s Hosp. Kamboni HC Thonje HC Mchinji DH Kasina HC Mangochi DH Lilongwe CH Ntcheu DH Gawanani HC QECH Milepa HC Mianga HC Mulanje M. Hosp. Nsanje DH

7. Agreement on Trends

8. Agreement on Trends

9. Is prevalence declining?

10. Is prevalence declining?

11. New Sites

12. New Sites

13. New Sites

14. New Sites