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Presidential Disaster Declarations in a Post 9/11 World

Presidential Disaster Declarations in a Post 9/11 World. By Prof. Rick Sylves (sylves@udel.edu) Dept. of Political Science & International Relations University of Delaware, Newark DE 19716. Why Presidential Declarations of Disaster Matter.

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Presidential Disaster Declarations in a Post 9/11 World

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  1. Presidential Disaster Declarations in a Post 9/11 World • By Prof. Rick Sylves (sylves@udel.edu) • Dept. of Political Science & International Relations • University of Delaware, Newark DE 19716

  2. Why Presidential Declarations of Disaster Matter • Governors ask Presidents to issue them, odds of approval from 1953-2004 are 2 in 3, & 1989-2004, 3 in 4 • Two types of pres decs: Major Disaster and Emergency • What a declaration brings state & local governments. • How much money we talking about here? • Why do presidents sometimes turn down requests governors have made for Presidential Declarations? • How is the world of presidential disaster declarations changing? National Incident Management System, National Response Plan, FEMA’s incorporation into the Department of Homeland Security, new terror threats with catastrophic consequences, including bioterror.

  3. Presidential Turndowns of Governor Requests for Declarations of Major Disaster or Emergency as Percent of Total Requests over Presidential Administration

  4. Sylves’ brief magical mystery tour of presidential disaster declarations and turndowns • Anthrax is released Oct 2001 into American Media Services building in Florida, 1 death; did Gov. Jeb Bush win a declaration from his brother for this event? • Gov. Pataki asks Pres. Clinton for a declaration to pay for West Nile Virus spraying costs, did Clinton approve it?

  5. In 1996, TWA flight. 800, a 747 departing Kennedy Airport, crashes into the sea off Long Island, NY killing all on board; New York’s Governor Pataki asked Pres. Clinton for a declaration. Did Clinton grant it?

  6. On 9/11/01 the Governor of Massachusetts asked Pres. GW Bush for a declaration of disaster; did she get it? On 9/11 the Governors of New Jersey and Virginia separately asked Pres GW Bush for a declaration of emergency. Were their requests approved?

  7. In March 1989 the Governor of Alaska asked Pres. GHW Bush for a major disaster declaration for the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Did Alaska’s Governor get it?

  8. The Sylves mini-quiz on disasters continued • Over the last 50 years which state pulled in a disproportionately large share of federal aid money (almost 50%) under presidential declarations of major disaster issued? • Which U.S. region has the most presidential declarations for disaster (’53-’04)? • Of the ten presidents from Eisenhower through G.W. Bush, which two presidents have issued the largest share of turndowns and which two the largest share of approvals?

  9. In 1979, the Governor of Florida asked for a declaration to help his state manage a huge flow of Cubans arriving from Castro’s Mariel Boatlift. Did Pres. Carter grant the Governor a declaration for it?

  10. In Feb. 2003 the Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrated on re-entry. Did governors of states in the debris zone win declarations from Pres. GW Bush?

  11. The Sylves mini-quiz on disasters continued • What kinds of disasters most often win presidential declarations of major disaster? • Earthquakes? Hurricanes? Floods? Severe Storms? Winter Storms? Droughts? Tornadoes? Terrorist Attacks? Toxic Substance Incidents? Crop Freezes? Mudslides/Landslides? • How has 9/11 and the era of Homeland Security changed Presidential Declaration law and policy? • Why does Congress allow presidents to have so much freedom to decide what is and what is not a disaster or emergency?

  12. My testable hypotheses and the findings of others • Several scholars allege that presidential declaration issuance is routinely political and rarely simply an administrative determination. (Pielke, Reeves, Sobel, Platt, etc.) Beware of this over-simplified claim. • My claim is that governor requests for nearly all significant magnitude or high intensity, rapid onset disasters are decided by presidents on “administrative” terms whether those decisions provide political benefits to the president or not.

  13. My testable hypotheses continued • Sometimes anomalous events have significant political and federal interest for a president (Mariel Boatlift, Columbia Shuttle Disaster-) and win declarations. Anomalous presidential disaster declarations set precedents that Governors remember and later request on. • I hypothesize that for presidents, political factors are often paramount when governors request major disaster declarations for marginal events, that is, events at or below FEMA’s administrative threshold of declaration deservedness, and the president approves the request.

  14. My testable hypotheses con’t • Presidential turndowns of the vast majority of governor requests for presidential declarations are overwhelmingly administrative, apolitical determinations. • What constitutes a declarable disaster changes in subtle ways from president to president. • Heavy news media coverage, especially national media coverage, plays a major role in influencing modern presidents to issue declarations for marginal events that would not have earned declarations previously

  15. Priorities – DHS FY05 Budget (courtesy Prof. William Waugh) How do these program and functional purposes relate to the realm of presidential declarations of disaster? • Counterterrorism – Prevention • Civil aviation (TSA) – 13% increase, includes 19% more for explosives detection technologies • State and local assistance • Port security - $150 million • Rail/transit security - $150 million • Urban Area Security Initiative – risk based allocations • Bioterrorism – Project BioShield • Border Security – 7 % increase • USCG – 8.6% increase • Natural disasters (EP&R) – 7% increase • Critical infrastructure protection – 6.7% increase

  16. Total U.S. Terrorism Casualties, 1993-2003 (courtesy Prof. William Waugh)Year Dead Wounded/ Major Attack Injured • 1993 7 1004 1st WTC attack • 1994 6 5 • 1995 10 60 • 1996 25 510 Khobar Barracks • 1997 6 21 • 1998 12 11 Embassy bombs • 1999 6 6 • 2000 23 47 USS Cole bomb • 2001 2689 90 WTC/Pentagon • 2002 26 35 Afghanistan war • 2003 35 29 Iraq war (?)

  17. Closing Comments • Changes in presidential disaster declaration law, policy and authority, plus the emergency spending authority available to presidents, has over time encouraged a federalization of emergency management and has dramatically expanded the definition of what constitutes a disaster deserving of national mobilization. • The 9/11/01 terror disaster has helped move the President and Congress toward the nationalization of domestic natural and human-caused disasters and emergencies of any type such that they are all now considered part of a national “incident” management system. All disasters and emergencies are now defined as “incidents” and the “mother of all” incidents to date is the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

  18. Thank you for inviting me to make this presentation at NDMS 2005.I welcome your questions and I will be happy to talk with you this afternoon.

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