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columnist for Agweb AGRIMoney FACEBOOK https:// facebook/WxRisk

columnist for Agweb.com AGRIMoney.com FACEBOOK https:// www.facebook.com/WxRisk TWITTER @WXRISKCOM email: wxrisk@comcast.net. … SPRING FORECAST 2012…. David Tolleris. yes it was a WIERD WINTER!!! Wet ECB … No snow build up like last 2 winters… LA NINA fading by MAY

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columnist for Agweb AGRIMoney FACEBOOK https:// facebook/WxRisk

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  1. columnist for Agweb.com AGRIMoney.com FACEBOOK https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk TWITTER @WXRISKCOM email: wxrisk@comcast.net …SPRING FORECAST 2012…. David Tolleris

  2. yes it was a WIERD WINTER!!! Wet ECB … No snow build up like last 2 winters… LA NINA fading by MAY OVERSEAS Argentina Drought severe cold coming Ukraine swRusisa very dry Manchuria

  3. WINTER 2011-12… WHAT WINTER? • SUPER WARM EAST OF THE ROCKIES • RATHER INACTIVE or NOT STORMY • NEAR RECORD WARMTH EAST OF THE ROCKIES …. DEC 2011… JAN 2012… and FEB 2012

  4. WHAT HE PREDICTED FOR WINTER 2011-12… • SEVERE COLD IN EASTERN US ALL OF JAN 2012 • MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL UK / WESTERN EUROPE • MASSIVE NE US SNOWSTORM JAN 11-14 – it was in the 50s and 60s • COLD & SNOWY DEC IN UKRAINE / W. RUSSIA – near record warmth • SEVERE HEAT MID JAN 2012 IN AUSTRALIA… Bingo!

  5. WINTER 2012 USA

  6. WINTER 2012 USA

  7. WHY was this WINTER so NON WINTRY? Pattern in early & Mid NOV got off to a terrible start and it never recovered Development of HUGE Upper Low in the Jet stream at 500 MB Alaska/ Bering Sea. This feature NEVER moved. Acted like a PLUG or barrier keeping all severe cold over Alaska… so there was no build up of large cold air masses in central & eastern Canada This featured ensured very strong Pacific Jet which was resistant to any sort of Big troughs forming NAO very Positive: near record levels

  8. NOTE the HUGE UPPER LOW that is located over ALASKA here in early NOV 2011 and VERY POSITIVE NAO OVER GREENLAND

  9. Typical Winter cold PATTERN

  10. Large UPPER LOW -- BLUE over ALASKA Means NO +PNA and NO way for cold to reach into central & eastern CONUS

  11. 12/26/2011 UPPER LOW over Alaska has not moved

  12. PATTERN WINTER 2010-11

  13. Drought Indicators

  14. In SPRING 2011 Soil Moisture maps showed 1) large area of saturated grounds over Upper Plains/Upper Miss valley 2) large Drought area over Deep South. The mean Jet stream closely followed this alignment of wet & dry areas and so did the main area of super active severe wx season of 2011

  15. Going into SPRING 2012 Soil Moisture maps show a large area of saturated grounds over Ohio Valley into the Northeast and a large very Dry and Drought area over Deep South. This sort of pattern suggests a mean Jet stream fairly similar to SPRING 2011 season -- in others words a severe weather season with the most active area over the OHIO and / or TN valley

  16. Current Status of La Nina

  17. Current Status of La Nina Last Winter’s La Nina was STRONG this one MODERATE

  18. Current Status of La Nina

  19. JAN 15 FEB 15 La Nina Begins to decay in SPRING 2012 reaching NEUTRAL by MAY and WEAK El Nino by JULY?

  20. What we are Looking for are SHORT Duration La Nina events that were either WEAK” or “MODERATE” in intensity that DIED off late SPRING or Early SUMMER 2011… 2008… 1985… 1996…1968

  21. the 5 possible analog years indicate pretty cold MAM for Canada MN and the Dakotas

  22. the 5 possible analog years indicate WET ECB/ Ohio valley

  23. SENSIBLE WEATHER.. 2001-02 and 1972-73 Were both VERY MILD and either snowless OR almost snowless winters

  24. IRI CLIMATE MODEL from FEB valid for MARCH APRIL MAY (MAM) TEMPERATURES

  25. IRI CLIMATE MODEL from FEB valid for MARCH APRIL MAY (MAM) PRECIPIATAION

  26. CFS climate model FEB 23 shows a WET MARCH 2012 over the Midwest

  27. CFS climate model FEB 23 shows a very warm MARCH 2012

  28. what if we move into EL NINO by JUNE? This is the real wild card for the Summer of 2012. Rather than looking at ALL El Nino events since 1950 that have occurred in the Summer… lets look at those El Nino events that BEGAN in MAY or JUNE. If we look at Just those event… we come with the following El Nino events as possible analogs 1963…1965… 1972… 1982… 1991…1997 and 2002…

  29. EL NINO precip patterns for the 7 events than Began in MAY or JUNE

  30. EL NINO Temperature patterns for the 7 events than Began in MAY or JUNE

  31. As a general rule I HATE making early season calls like for the NEXT season. But if we look at Just those El Nino event that began in MAY or JUNE (1963…1965… 1972… 1982… 1991…1997 and 2002…) • only 1 of those Hurricane seasons has 10+ named TC (2002) • only 1 “Intense TC” -- category 3-4-5 hit the US (Betsy) • the vast Majority of all TC activity formed out side or North of the MDR… Main Development Region.

  32. Over past 30 days central & eastern ARG gas seen BIG increases in rainfall – some areas now wetter than Normal: but east central Brazil TURNED extremely dry

  33. WHY the drought over ARG & SE BRAZIL? See the LARGE pool of super warm Sea surface Temps off the ARG/ se Brazil ? That pool has altered weather patterns

  34. SURFACE MOISTURE

  35. FEB actual FEB Rainfall Rainfall anomaly

  36. FEB actual FEB RAINFALL Rainfall Anomaly

  37. IRI model RAINFALL for MAM shows a DRY pattern for SW BRAZiL

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