Assessing President Obama November 29, 201 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

1. Assessing President ObamaNovember 29, 201Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars James A. Thurber Director and Professor Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies American University thurber@american.edu 202-885-6247 www.american.edu/spa/ccps Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps

2. Obama in Office Gary Jacobson and Richard Boyd on polarization and public opinion. Stephen Wayne on personality and performance James Pfiffner on White House organization Barbara Sinclair on Obama and the congressional leadership John Owens on Obama in the congressional partisan context

3. Obama in Office Jim Thurber on Obama and lobbyists Ron Elving on Obama and the media Scott Lilly on Obama’s communications style Domestic Policy: Joe White on the budget, Claudia Thurber on the politics of regulation, Doug Van Houweling on Internet policy Foreign Policy: Wilkenfeld, Crenshaw, Pious, and Korb/Rothman

4. Central Questions of the Book How has President Obama reacted to the crises in which he found himself? How does he make decisions? How does he make policy, communicate, campaign, lobby, and work with Congress? What has been the impact of Obama’s presidency on policy, process, and politics?

5. Evaluating the Obama Presidency: Most Consequential? Stimulus/TARP/Auto Bailouts Health care overhaul Financial sector re-regulation Redeployment out of Iraq-into Afghanistan 243 new laws in two years

6. Consequential Lame Duck Compromise 2 more years on tax cuts Other tax cuts Extended jobless benefits Deepened the deficit Ratification of New START Repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell Food Safety Act

7. On roll-call votes where the president had a clear position, what percentage of the time did Congress support the president's position? Source: Congressional Quarterly as reported by National Public Radio: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122436116&ps=cprs

8. Evaluating the Obama Presidency: Most Controversial? First African American to be President Right: Too expansionistic/activist/liberal, too radical… even “socialist” Left: too moderate, conciliatory, too willing to sell out his base supporters “No drama” deliberative style was too indecisive, “professorial president”

9. Evaluating the Obama Presidency: Most Controversial? Lingering high unemployment Slow GDP growth Record deficits and debt Immigration reform failure Climate change legislation failed Controversial anti-terrorism policies Deadlocked Post 2010 election

10. Presidential Obama’s Job Approval Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps

11. “The Shellacking”:Historic 2010 “Wave” Election GOP gain = 63 seats net in House Biggest Dem loss since 1938 Republicans reach 242 Freshman class = 87 Republicans 86 of 87 take “no new taxes” pledge Over 50% are Tea Party connected One in three have never held office Continued Realignment of the South

12. Obama Challenges in 2011-2012 • Little consensus about problems and threat: e.g. . Jobs, Debt-Deficit, Health Care, Education, Afghanistan, Middle East • Little consensus about solutions to problem • Strong parties and interest groups disagree about problems and solutions/Deadlock? • Limits on resources, large deficits/debt • Partisanship, Individualism, drive for re-election will dominate unless Crisis • Obama’s Leadership: Leading from behind? Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies www.american.edu/ccps