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Population Growth and Global Warming

Population Growth and Global Warming. By Nick Maliska. Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector. Chain of Causation. I=PAT. I = environmental impact P = population A = affluence, GNP per capita T = technological efficiency 1% increase in population yields 1% increase in emissions.

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Population Growth and Global Warming

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  1. Population Growth and Global Warming By Nick Maliska

  2. Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

  3. Chain of Causation

  4. I=PAT • I = environmental impact • P = population • A = affluence, GNP per capita • T = technological efficiency • 1% increase in population yields 1% increase in emissions

  5. Two Opposing Views • Malthusian: population growth is outpacing earth’s ability to absorb waste generated by the growing population. • Boserupian: population growth leads to technological innovation, which will solve environmental problems.

  6. Support for Malthus • From 1975-1996, global population grew by 42% while emissions increased by 61%. • Elasticity of Emissions with respect to population growth = 1.42

  7. Support for Boserup • Wide Variation across countries • Low-middle income countries have high elasticity of emissions with respect to population growth (above 2) • High income countries have below unitary (less than 1)

  8. Environmental Kuznets Curve

  9. Households vs. Population • I = HAT • Significant portion of energy consumed is based on household consumption, not individual consumption • Average size has decreased from 3.6 to 2.7, so number of households has increased relative to population growth in developed world

  10. Kyoto Protocol

  11. Policy Implications • Controlling population growth will be key to controlling greenhouse gas emissions • Developing World is responsible for an increasing proportion of global emissions. • If only control emissions in the developed world, expected 4 degree Celsius rise in temperature will be reduced by 1 degree

  12. Expected Rise in Temperature

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