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Just What are We Getting Into? The Impacts of the GTA Condo Boom

Just What are We Getting Into? The Impacts of the GTA Condo Boom Presentation to Lambda Alpha Simcoe Chapter February 25 th , 2008. Presented by: N. Barry Lyon President and Senior Partner N. Barry Lyon Consultants Ltd. 2007 A Landmark Year for New High Density Sales.

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Just What are We Getting Into? The Impacts of the GTA Condo Boom

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  1. Just What are We Getting Into? The Impacts of the GTA Condo Boom Presentation to Lambda Alpha Simcoe Chapter February 25th, 2008 Presented by: N. Barry Lyon President and Senior Partner N. Barry Lyon Consultants Ltd.

  2. 2007 A Landmark Year for New High Density Sales Source: RealNet Canada Inc.

  3. High Density Sales Outpace Low Density Source: RealNet Canada Inc.

  4. Former City of Toronto Dominates Market Source: RealNet Canada Inc.

  5. Investor Activity Linked to Transit Accessibility North Yonge Corridor Mississauga City Centre Scarborough City Centre King West/Liberty Village/CityPlace Yonge & Bay Corridors/ Waterfront Etobicoke Waterfront

  6. Affordability Declining

  7. Source: RealNet Canada Inc.

  8. Pioneering the Empty-Nester Market Market Square Condominiums, St. Lawrence Neighbourhood

  9. Emergence of Super Luxury Market Four Seasons East & West Towers 5-Star Hotel/Condos $1,238 & $1,579 PSF 77 Charles $1,162 PSF Residences at the Ritz-Carlton 5-Star Hotel/Condos $989 PSF

  10. Emergence of Super Luxury Market The St. Thomas $1,000+ PSF Shangri-La 5-Star Hotel/Condos 65-Storeys $1,100 PSF MuseumHouse $1,541 PSF

  11. Conversions Clockwise from Left: One Benvenuto; Wrigley and Garment Factory Lofts; Printing Factory Lofts

  12. New Office Development First Waterfront Place Queens’ Quay at Jarvis Slip 8-Storeys TEDCO and City of Toronto Co-Developers Lead Tenant: Corus Entertainment 500,000 Sq. Ft. Office & Broadcast Centre LEED Gold

  13. New Office Development Telus Tower York Street at Bremner Boulevard 30-Storeys Menkes Development, Hospital of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP), Halcyon Partners Fund Lead Tenant: Telus 780,000 Sq. Ft. Office LEED Silver

  14. New Office Development RBC Centre Wellington West at Simcoe Street 42-Storeys Cadillac Fairview and Graywood Developments Lead Tenant: RBC 1.5 Million Sq. Ft. Office LEED Silver Maple Leaf Square Southeast Corner York Street at Bremner Boulevard 44 and 40-Storeys Lanterra Development, Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment and Cadillac Fairview 230,000 Sq. Ft. Office in Podium Component LEED Silver

  15. New Office Development Bay-Adelaide Centre Northeast Corner of Bay Street and Adelaide Street East Brookfield Properties Lead Tenant (Phase 1) – KPMG, Goodmans LLP 1.1 Million Sq. Ft. Office – Phase 1 West Tower LEED Gold

  16. New Transit Lines Source: Toronto Transit Commission

  17. Proposed Waterfront Transit Lines City of Toronto Waterfront Proposed Transit Lines Source: Waterfront Toronto, Toronto Transit Commission

  18. New Grocery Retail

  19. Future Development +

  20. Future Development +

  21. Suburban Intensification Proposed Master-planned Community, Duke of York Boulevard, Mississauga City Centre

  22. Suburban Intensification Holiday Drive, The West Mall and Rathburn Road, Etobicoke

  23. Parking Lots A Dying Breed Parking Lot, Church and Colborne Streets

  24. Mixed Use Developments Mixed Retail-Residential Vancouver Home Depot with Condos Above Approved Mixed Retail-Residential Queen Street at Portland Home Depot with Condos Above

  25. Family Housing in the City Rendering of Blocks 32 & 36, Railway Lands, Toronto Community and Housing Corporation

  26. Family Housing in the City Overview of Future Regent Park

  27. The West Donlands – A Largely Condominium Community Aerial View of West Don Lands

  28. Looking Ahead • Toronto arrives as an international destination, place to live, work, visit • Immigration, economic stability & aging Boomers/ Zoomers drive condo demand • International investors continue to see Toronto as a safe haven • Housing affordability continues to decline in Central City • Continued largest condo market share to City of Toronto • Downtown & waterfront increase market share

  29. Looking Ahead • New condo neighbourhoods mature, enhance infrastructure • Balanced growth Downtown—offices, hotels, retail, institutional, residential • Shift from small condo units to upsizing & families • Height resistance mellows outside of traditional neighbourhoods • Neighbourhoods continue to confront change • Closer live/work relationships across GTA – commuting loses favour with $1.50 to $2.00/litre gas

  30. Looking Ahead • Growth of 905 sub-centres/downtowns • Suburban transit network becomes increasingly functional • City, TTC continue to fail to designate higher densities around transit stations • Toronto’s employment retention policies continue to ignore functional obsolescence • Toronto’s main street redevelopment policies fail to deliver development

  31. Looking Ahead • Urban Toronto loses gap-toothed streetscapes as parking goes underground • Entertainment District shrinks • Toronto’s residential taxes climb to 905 levels

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