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ISA – Killing Speed Electronically

This article discusses the effectiveness of Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) in reducing crash risk and promoting road safety. It explores the operational methods, evidence from trials, and the benefits of ISA, including fuel and CO2 savings. The article also emphasizes the importance of public attitudes towards ISA and proposes two deployment stages for its implementation.

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ISA – Killing Speed Electronically

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  1. ISA – Killing Speed Electronically Oliver Carsten Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds UK

  2. HMI: Tell the driver the speed limit • Control (if wanted):a link to the drivetrain How does ISA operate? Evidence from trial after trial is that this can be made to work reliably • Position: a GPS-based navigation system • Information: a digital road map with speed limits

  3. Driving with ISA reduces crash risk • Calculation of individual crash risk with intervening ISA (report to Transport for London, 2006) • Method: • By combining observed changes in speed behaviour on 30 mph roads (from ISA-UK Trial 1) • With risk of crash involvement given driving speed on urban roads (from Kloeden et al., 1997) • We can calculate an average saving in the risk of a crash • Answer: • 19.3% reduction

  4. Attitudes • Generally supportive public attitudes: • MORI poll in UK for FIA Foundation in 2002: • 70% support for warning ISA in urban areas • 58% would support non-overridable limiters on residential streets if that meant road humps would be removed • ISA “grows” on those who experience it: • Almqvist and Nygard (1997) found that 73% of drivers reported being more positive towards ISA after using it than before • Lahrmann, Madsen and Boroch (2001) reported that 15 out of 20 drivers became more favourable to using ISA after experience of the system

  5. ISA brings other benefits • Fuel savings • CO2 savings • Potential to reduce journey time (managed motorways; reduction in incidents) • Cheap traffic calming

  6. PROSPER Results:Benefits and Costs Oliver Carsten Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds UK The Prosper project is co-funded by the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy and Transport.

  7. Accident prediction and cost-benefit analysis • Six countries — Belgium, Great Britain, France, NL, Spain and Sweden • Two major scenarios • Market driven (those who want ISA fit it) • Authority driven (first encouragement and then compulsion) • Scenarios affect mix of ISA systems • Procedure: • Predict traffic growth • Predict accident risk without ISA • Predict additional safety impact of ISA (via change in speed patterns) • Analyse costs and benefits

  8. Penetration of Voluntary ISA in Market-Driven Scenario

  9. Penetration of Voluntary ISA in Authority-Driven Scenario

  10. Reductions in fatalities (ISA versus no ISA) in 2050

  11. Benefit-to-cost ratios by country and scenario Note: Year of mandatory usage for Authority Scenario is in range 2032 to 2035

  12. Implementation of ISA • Comments at PROSPER seminar (policy-driven group): • Waiting till 2035 or 2050 is too long • Can we learn some lessons from another successful technology — seatbelts?

  13. Time line for seatbelts

  14. Stages • Stage 1: Voluntary fitment • Lots of trouble to install • Stage 2: Required anchorages • Pioneers adopt • Stage 3: Required fitment • Large numbers can voluntarily adopt • Stage 4: Compulsory usage

  15. The “Tipping Points” The “Tipping Points” are: • Requiring capability on the vehicle (= the seatbelt anchorages)This enables voluntary fitment • Requiring fitmentThis enables large-scale voluntary usage But also one crucial difference with seatbelts: ISA cannot be used without an information service

  16. Great Britain: Seatbelt wearing rates for front occupants of cars and vans

  17. Conclusions • “ETSC seeks to identify and promote effective measures on the basis of international scientific research and best practice in areas which offer the greatest potential for a reduction in transport crashes and casualties.” • ISA fits those criteria with huge potential for casualty reduction • ETSC and other safety organisations should promote 2 stages of deployment: Stage 1: • A pan-European speed limit information service • A standard link between speed limit information and vehicle control (ECE Reg 89 on Speed Limitation Devices as amended in 2002 allows for adjustable speed limiters) Stage 2: • Required fitment of intervening (but overridable) ISA

  18. One last point • Do we need a new name for ISA? • How likely is that a customer will walk into the showroom and ask for “Intelligent Speed Adaptation”? • How about “In-Vehicle Speed Support” (IVSS)?

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