Presentation Transcript

1. Saving & Investing Dr. Katie Sauer Metropolitan State University of Denver (ksauer5@msudenver.edu) Presented at Junior Achievement’s Elementary School Personal Financial Literacy Workshop in collaboration with the Colorado Council for Economic Education
2. Session Overview I. Basic Terminology II. Saving III. Turning Savings into Investment Time Value of Money Managing Risk The Big Picture
3. I. Basic Terminology savings = income – taxes – spending on goods and services investment = something acquired for future income or benefit - investments can generate income (e.g. interest, dividends) - investments can appreciate in value (e.g. house, gold)
4. By itself, savings is just what is left over from your income after taxes and your spending. When you take your savings and put it in an account that earns interest or buy a stock or a house, you are investing.
5. II. Saving Why do people save? According to the Federal Reserve’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2009/pdf/scf09.pdf
6. How much do people save? The savings rate is the percent of after-tax income that is saved. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov) has been tracking US household saving rates since 1959. Year Average Savings Rate 1960s 8.21% 1970s 9.6% 1980s 8.61% 1990s 5.5% 2000- Oct 2008 2.82% Since Oct 2008 5.77% http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/PSAVERT.txt
7. The saving rate has been trending down since the early 1980s. In recessions, people tend to save more.
8. How much do people want to have saved for emergencies and unexpected situations? http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2009/pdf/scf09.pdf As income rises, so does the amount that households want to have saved. As income rises, the percent of income that households need to save to meet their goal tends to fall.
9. A household with income of $15,000, wanting to save $2,000 will have to save what percent of their income? percent of income saved = $2,000 x 100 $15,000 percent of income saved = 13.3%
10. A household with income of $250,000 wanting to save $20,000 will have to save what percent of their income? percent of income saved = $20,000 x 100 $250,000 percent of income saved = 8%
11. Not all households have a saving account. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2009/pdf/scf09.pdf
12. Common Types of Savings Accounts Regular Savings account Can be readily accessed Easy to transfer funds Money market account Often a minimum balance Some allow checking Certificate of deposit (CD) Specific term - all earn interest - all are FDIC insured to $250,000
13. III. Turning Savings into Investment The Financial System is the group of institutions in an economy that help to match savers with borrowers The US economy has two basic types of financial institutions: - financial markets - financial intermediaries
14. A. Financial Intermediaries are institutions where funds are transferred indirectly from savers to investors. Examples: 1. Banks accept savings deposits and make loans. - pay interest to depositors, charge interest to borrowers 2. Mutual Funds are institutions that sell shares to the public and use the proceeds to buy a portfolio of stocks and bonds. - allows individuals with a small amount of money to diversify
15. B. Financial Markets are institutions where funds are transferred directly from savers to investors. Examples: 1. Bond Market A bond is a certificate of indebtedness. “IOU” When a firm or government issues a bond, they are borrowing money from anyone who buys the bond. They are promising to pay you back a certain value in the future. A bond has a date of maturity and a rate of interest associated with it.
16. Suppose you buy a $1,000 bond that matures in 5 years and pays 6% interest. - Today, you give up $1,000 and receive the bond. - You will receive periodic interest payments of 6% for the next 5 years. 1,000 x 0.06 = $60 - At the end of the 5 years, you receive $1,000.
17. Bonds can be sold at par value (face value) or at a discount or at a premium. Characteristics that determine a bond’s value: term: length of time until the bond matures - longer maturity time … riskier credit risk: the probability that the borrower will fail to pay the interest or the principal tax treatment: some bonds have interest that is tax free
18. US Government Bond: Issue price: $18.75 Maturity date: May 2008 Interest over 30 years: $87.92 Final value: $106.67 Treasurydirect.gov
19. 2. Stock Market A stock is a claim of partial ownership of a firm. - shareholder If you buy a stock, you are not guaranteed to get your money back. The price of a stock generally reflects the perception of a firm’s future profitability.
20. What determines the price of a stock? a. Fundamental analysis is the study of a company’s accounting statements and future prospects. It includes doing an economic analysis, industry analysis, and company analysis. - P/E ratio (stock price / net income per share) - competitors - the market for its product - management - credit risk
21. b. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis is the theory that asset prices reflect all publicly available information about the value of the asset. - each company listed on a stock exchange is followed closely by many many people - equilibrium of supply and demand sets the price According to this theory, at the market price, the number of people wanting to sell exactly equals the number wanting to buy. Remember, any stock that you think is “hot” and about to increase in value, someone else thought it was not hot and was willing to sell it.
22. c. Market Irrationality Stock prices sometimes seem to be driven by psychological reasons. Herd Mentality is the tendency for individuals to copy the actions of a larger group, even though without the group the person may not choose to take the action on their own. - when the stock market is booming and “everyone” is investing, a person might decide it is a great time to buy some stocks, too
23. Following a Stock Google Finance 2/21/12 company name name of stock exchange and stock symbol change: compared to most recent closing price current price per share, the last price a share was traded at percent change: change x 100 close price
24. Range: daily high and low price 52 Week: high and low price for the last 52 weeks Open: the price at the beginning of trading today Vol/Avg: Volume = number of shares traded today Average = average number of shares traded daily
25. Mkt cap: Market Capitalization is a measure of the total value of the company Mkt Cap= Total Shares Outstanding x Current Price P/E: Price-to-Earnings Ratio is the price of a share divided by last year’s earnings per share
26. Div/Yield: a Dividend is the amount of money the firm will pay you (typ. each quarter) for each share you own. The Yield = dividend / price - not all firms pay dividends EPS: Earnings Per Share is the amount of earnings per each outstanding share Shares: the number of shares outstanding
27. Beta: A statistical estimate of how closely the stock’s performance matches the stock market in general. The higher the beta, the closer the stock matches the general market. Inst. Own: Institutional Ownership is percent of the shares that the firm owns
28. 2 biggest stock exchanges in the world: New York Stock Exchange NASDAQ Stock market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average = price-weighted average of 30 large companies S&P 500 = index of 500 large-cap companies “cap” stands for market capitalization which is the equity value of the company - large-cap means $10billion = $100billion
29. NASDAQ Composite = index of all stocks traded on the NASDAQ stock exchange Russell 1000 = index of the highest 1,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index Russell 2000 = small-cap index of the bottom 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index Russell 3000 = index of 3,000 publicly traded companies
30. C. The Value of Household Assets http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2009/pdf/scf09.pdf
31. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2009/pdf/scf09.pdf http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2009/pdf/scf09.pdf
32. Where do people get their information on investing? http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2009/pdf/scf09.pdf
33. IV. The Time Value of Money Intuitively we understand that an amount of money today is more valuable than the same amount of money in the future. - inflation - earn interest
34. Future Value is the amount of money that can result from an amount of money we have today. Future Value = Present Value x (1 + r ) Ex: $18,000 wedding, 4% interest, 40 years Future Value = 18,000 x (1.04) Future Value = $86,418 Ex: $18,000 wedding, 6% interest, 40 years Future Value = 18,000 x (1.06) Future Value = $185,142 n 40 40
35. Suppose you spend $1000 to go to a relaxing all-inclusive resort in Mexico for spring break. If you had invested the $1,000 at 5% interest, how much money would you have had in 10 years? Future Value = 1000 x (1.05) Future Value = $1628.89 If you invested it for 20 years, how much would you have? Future Value = 1000 x (1.05) Future Value = $2653.30 10 20
36. The higher the interest rate, the higher the future value of your money saved today. The longer the time frame, the higher the future value of your money saved today.
37. Present Value is the amount of money one would need today to produce a given amount of money in the future. Present Value = Future Value / (1 + r ) Ex. you want to have $1,000,000 in 25 years and the interest rate is 5% Present Value = 1,000,000 / (1.05) Present Value = $295,303 If you put $295,303 in an account earning 5% interest, you’d have $1million in 25 years. n 25
38. Suppose instead you want the $1,000,000 in 40 years. Present Value = 1,000,000 / (1.05) Present Value = $142,045.68 40
39. Suppose when your child begins his/her college education, you promise to give you son/daughter $1000 cash if they graduate in 4 years. If your savings account earns 8% interest, how much money would you need to put in today to have $1000 in 4 years? Present Value = 1000 / (1.08) Present Value = $735.03 Suppose instead your account earns 2% interest. Present Value = 1000 / (1.02) Present Value = $923.85 4 4
40. The higher the interest rate, the smaller the amount of money needed in the present to obtain a particular future amount. The longer the time frame, the smaller the amount of money needed in the present to obtain a particular future amount.
41. V. Managing Risk Risk Aversion is a dislike of uncertainty. Practical advice for risk-averse people: don’t put all your eggs in one basket Diversify!
42. Firm-specific risk only affects a single company. ex: a software firm that goes bankrupt because they sold a low quality product that no one bought Market risk is the risk associated with the entire economy. ex: in a recession, even good firms face hard times and may have financial troubles You can avoid firm-specific risk by diversifying but you can’t avoid market risk.
43. To some degree, you can avoid some of the market risk associated with a particular nation’s economy. ex: buy assets in nations outside the US However, as nations become more and more engaged in the global economy, there is a global market risk that is unavoidable.
44. Keep in mind, there is always a tradeoff between risk and reward. - savings account is safe, but pays lower interest - stocks are riskier, but pay a higher return - US bonds are safer, 4% interest - in spring 2010 Greek bonds were much riskier, 11% interest If you ever hear of an investment that pays a high rate of return, you should assume that it is risky and not a sure thing.
45. Risk tolerance changes with age. When a person is early in their working years, investing in relatively riskier assets is okay. - can ride out the ups and downs of the stock market… can have big payoffs and can recover from any losses When a person is getting closer to retirement, investing in safer assets is wise. - if the stock market has a downturn in the few years before retirement… little time to make up that loss
46. VI. The Big Picture savings business investment Besides being beneficial for households, savings is also important for the economy as a whole: physical capital capital per worker productivity standard of living