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Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race

Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race. War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era. The nuclear peace?. Massive nuclear arsenals: 70,000 nukes by late 1980s End of civilisation w/ over one billion dead No nuclear use since 1945. Key themes. Explaining the build-up

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Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race

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  1. Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

  2. The nuclear peace? • Massive nuclear arsenals: 70,000 nukes by late 1980s • End of civilisation w/ over one billion dead • No nuclear use since 1945

  3. Key themes • Explaining the build-up • Civil-military differences • Nuclear strategy

  4. Reaction to the bomb • Mixture of “awe and apprehension.” • Hiroshima and Nagasaki blown off the map killing up to 140,000 • Press censorship of destruction • Prompt surrender of Japan

  5. Hiroshima: clinical destruction

  6. Hiroshima: clinical destruction

  7. Hiroshima: the hidden suffering

  8. Reaction to the bomb • Mixture of “awe and apprehension.” • Hiroshima and Nagasaki blown off the map killing up to 140,000 • Press censorship of destruction • Prompt surrender of Japan

  9. Race from the start • US atomic bomb: 1945 • Soviet A-bomb: 1949 • US hydrogen bomb: 1952 • Soviet H-bomb: 1955

  10. Mike test • 10 megaton = 500 Hiroshimas • Cloud: 30 x 27 miles • Crater: mile wide and 200 ft deep • End of “Duck and Cover”

  11. Superpower nuclear arsenals • Massive size • Complexity • Overkill

  12. Explaining the arms build-up • External: arms race • Internal: domestic politics

  13. Arms racing • Explains ‘why’ but not ‘how’ • Tit-for-tat dynamics • Origins of Soviet programme • Failure of 1946 Baruch Plan • Limitations?

  14. Domestic politics • Bureaucratic interests, election politics, and the MIC • Origins of the US build-up • Undermining alternatives • Windows of vulnerability

  15. Civilian perspectives • Special weapons of last resort • Nuclear taboo: public opinion and personal conviction • Truman and AEC • Eisenhower and Korea • LBJ and Vietnam

  16. Can war be left to the generals?

  17. Mr. Atom Bomb

  18. Military perspectives • WWII bombing campaigns & SAC • Emergency War Plan 1-49 • “smoking radiating ruin at the end of two hours.” • Circumventing civilian control

  19. Nuclear nutters

  20. Peace through strength

  21. Golden age of nuclear strategy • MAD v nuclear war-fighting • Can nuclear war be fought? • How easy is deterrence? • Objective: denial or punishment? (Gray v Howard)

  22. Cuban Missile Crisis

  23. United Nations Security Council

  24. CMC: Soviet motives • Deter US invasion • Redress strategic imbalance • Counter Turkey deployment

  25. EXCOMM

  26. CMC: US options • Naval quarantine • Air strike • Invasion

  27. Public alarm

  28. Enforcing the blockade

  29. Clashes in the Caribbean

  30. Shooting down US spy-plane

  31. Crisis resolution • Trollope Ploy • Secret trade

  32. Back channel

  33. Credit for Kennedy? • Necessity for crisis • Firm resolve • Cold War record

  34. Threat of nuclear war • Deliberate war - Soviet fears - JFK measures • Accidental war - “Falling leaves” EWS - SAC provocation

  35. The Deterrence Paradigm • Central v extended deterrence • Immediate v general deterrence • Longevity - robust w/out reckless - best of a bad job - reflected institutional inertia

  36. US nuclear strategy • Declaratory policy (MAD v NWF) • Employment policy (more choice) • War plan (SIOP)

  37. NSTDB • 1960: 4,100 • 1974: 25,000 • 1980: 40,000 • 1982: 50,000

  38. The nuclear peace: a close call • Imperative: sufficient damage to target base • US early warning system failures: 1962, 1968, 1973, 1979, 1980 • LOW: pre-delegating launch authority

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