Plan for Today: Economic Reform & Globalization , Diffusion, and the Snowball Effect

1. Plan for Today: Economic Reform & Globalization, Diffusion, and the Snowball Effect • Conclude debate on shock therapy vs. gradual economic reform during democratization. • Learn how indirect international factors may encourage democratization. • Demonstration Effects. • International norms/ conventions.

2. Debate over best reform strategy Option 1 Option 2

3. Historical Evidence • Argue those who conducted radical reforms have more successful economies. • Poland (radical) vs. Romania (gradual).

4. Gradual, Moderate Reform • Defenders include: Przeworski, Stiglitz.

5. Arguments for Gradual Reform • We still know very little about how free markets interact with democracy.

6. Arguments for Gradual Reform • Adverse social and political consequences of neoliberal reforms.

7. Arguments for Gradual Reform • The state must play a role in facilitating market economy. • Enforcement of contracts. • Providing collective goods. • Equitable distribution of wealth.

8. Historical Evidence • “Alternative capitalisms” have succeeded quite well: • East Asia • European social democracies • Some neoliberal failures: • Argentina • Mexico • Russia

9. State of Debate • Debate still continues on appropriate approach to economic reform. • Certainly proponents of most radical free-market reforms have lost ground in debate in recent years.

10. Indirect International Forces: Globalization, Diffusion, and the Snowball Effect

11. Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing” • Democratization in one country can perhaps lead to democratization in other countries.

12. Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing”Characteristics • More important in the third wave, due to expanded communications and transportation. • Travel and cultural exchange. • Communications technology to link with outside world.

13. Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing”Characteristics • Tend to be clustered in particular regions. • Portugal  Spain  Latin America. • Philippines  South Korea. • Eastern Europe 1989. • Post-Communist “Colour Revolutions”. • Current North Africa/ Middle East protest movements.

14. Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing”Characteristics • Can jump from region to region, but weaker. • Eastern Europe  Zaire & Nepal (incomplete transitions).

15. Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing”Characteristics • Speed up and grow in importance during wave of democratic transitions. • Pro-democracy movements elsewhere begin to think democratization is natural outcome.

16. Demonstration Effects or “Snowballing”How important is it overall? • Not as important as domestic factors. • However, some cases of snowballing where no prior domestic support. • E.g. Albania. • But resulting democracy not stable.

17. International Norms and Conventions • Governments sign international conventions that demand democratic behaviour, with no intention of complying. • Domestic opposition forces then demand compliance with international standards. • E.g. USSR & Helsinki Accords (1975).

18. International Norms and Conventions • “Democracy” as universal international norm. • China, Iran, North Korea, Zimbabwe call themselves democracies – potential fuel for domestic mobilization. • Now anti-democracy coalition developing to change norm?

19. International Norms and Conventions • Desire to join international organizations  incentive for democratic consolidation. • E.g. European Union candidates.