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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests. Mark Johnston and Elaine Qualtiere Saskatchewan Research Council March 15 2011. General areas of vulnerability. Changes in species distributions Fire activity area burned frequency and intensity

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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests

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  1. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests Mark Johnston and Elaine Qualtiere Saskatchewan Research Council March 15 2011

  2. General areas of vulnerability • Changes in species distributions • Fire activity • area burned • frequency and intensity • Insect outbreaks • endemic species (e.g. SBW, FTC) • exotics (e.g. EAB, MPB) • Productivity • Operations • season of frozen ground

  3. CFS Plant Hardiness Database http://planthardiness.gc.ca/ph_futurehabitat.pl?lang=en Based on Climatic Suitability Jack Pine: currently suitable climate (dots indicate observed occurrence) Jack Pine: suitability 2050s HADCM3

  4. Area Burned for Western Canada (BC to MB) Source: Balshi et al., Global Change Biology 15: 578–600, 2009 By 2100: 3-5X increase By 2050: 2X increase Now

  5. Number of Fires Source: Wotton et al. 2010 International Journal of WildlandFire 19: 253–271 - Climate data used to calculate FWI - Statistical relationship between FWI and fire activity - Future data from CGCM1 Lightning-caused 2090 Lightning-caused 2030

  6. HFI map for Duck Mountains, prepared for LP’s Forest Management Plan, 2006 • Analysis using CFS Spatial Fire Management System (new version soon!) • Climate data from CRCM • Fuel types re-classified from LP forest inventory • Pink and red indicate fuel types where fire will be difficult to suppress • Did similar analysis for Mistik FMA in NW SK

  7. Suppression impossible Suppression difficult

  8. Insects • Endemic species outbreaks likely to increase but details are poorly understood • Exotics also likely to increase but impacts greater because no resistance • New MPB scenarios seem to be leaning toward poor winter survival, the apocalypse may be avoided!

  9. “…probability of range expansion… is low to moderate” Bentz et al., BioScience 2010, 60:602-612 MPB Adaptive Seasonality Cold Survival

  10. Productivity: Fort a la Corne Forest, SK

  11. Productivity: Mistik FMA, NW SK Ecosystem Model: PnET Climate Model: CRCM V 3.6 D = 2001-2002 drought scenario

  12. Estevan Swift Current

  13. Values of Hogg’s Climate Moisture Index based on CGCM2-A2 Source: Lempriere et al., The Importance of Forest Sector Adaptation to Climate Change, CFS Information Report NOR-X-416, 2008

  14. Projected increase in forested areas affected by drought stress under climate change From Hogg & Bernier 2005. The Forestry Chronicle 81: 675-682

  15. Shorter operating season on frozen ground What the…?

  16. #$%*&@!

  17. CRCM, Duck Mountains

  18. Mistik FMA Data from CRCM V 3.6

  19. Human Dimension • Need to examine organization’s adaptive capacity: • Awareness • Technology availability • Resources • Institutions • Human capital • Social capital • Risk management • Information management

  20. Human Dimension • Policy assessment – does current policy value • Innovation • Flexibility • Looking forward • Does policy welcome new thinking from outside, e.g. industry, producers? • Can policy be changed easily when required?

  21. Adaptation Options • Based on expert opinion and what has worked in the past • Screen according to future scenarios • Prioritize using e.g. CCFM Criteria and Indicators or other benchmarks for SFM

  22. LANDIS-II: Forest Landscape Simulator FORESTED LANDSCAPE DISPERSAL TREE / SHRUB ESTABLISHMENT INSECTS / DISEASE HARVESTING GROWTH FIRE MORTALITY WINDTHROW SPATIALLY INTERACTIVE PROCESSES NON-SPATIAL COMMUNITY PROCESSES

  23. LANDIS-II Philosophy: Homogeneity • LANDIS assumes homogeneity at multiple scales: • Sites = single cells • Ecoregions = 1 or more cells, typically defined by climate and soils. Need not be contiguous. Landscape Sites Ecoregions

  24. LANDIS-II Philosophy: Spatially Dynamic Cohort Biomass Soil Carbon & Nitrogen Fire Disturbances overlap in space and time. Insects Wind Harvest Spatially Interactive Landscape

  25. LANDIS-IISuccession Extensions Growth Model Regen- eration Model ANPP PEST User Choice Global Circulation Model LANDIS-II Forest Succession and Disturbance Probability of Establishment We will use PnET

  26. Case Studies • Island Forests in SK • Focus on interacting sources of vulnerability on sensitive landscapes • Fire, insects, drought, productivity • Alberta Case Study • Lit review to support provincial vulnerability assessment • Possibility of more work next year • Manitoba Case Study • Tree ring analysis to link tree growth and climate variables (with University of Winnipeg)

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