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The Changing Landscape of Texas Demographics

The Texas Demographic Center, under the leadership of Dr. Lloyd B. Potter, provides crucial demographic services for Texas, including population estimates and projections. The center collaborates with the Census Bureau and offers training, data analyses, and reports. Texas experienced significant population growth between 2010-2020, driven by Hispanic, NH Asian, NH Black, and NH Other communities. The state saw a daily increase of 1,297 new residents in 2022-2023, with notable growth from both international and domestic migration. This data reflects the dynamic shifts in Texas' racial and ethnic composition over recent years.

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The Changing Landscape of Texas Demographics

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  1. Data & Trends: The Changing Landscape of Texas Demographics Presented to February 26, 2024

  2.  Major function  Produce annual population estimates and biennial population projections The Texas Demographic Center  Other services  Disseminate demographic and socioeconomic information from the Census Bureau and other reliable sources;  Provide training and technical expertise  Custom data analyses and reports State Demographer State Demographer Click here to edit text style Dr. Lloyd B. Potter Dr. Lloyd B. Potter Affiliated with Affiliated with The University of Texas The University of Texas at San Antonio at San Antonio - -IDSER (Institute of Demographic IDSER (Institute of Demographic and Socio and Socio- -Economic Research) Economic Research)  Partnerships  Census Bureau State Data Center Network  TDC affiliates Source

  3. Numeric Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2020 143 counties lost population 87% SOURCE: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Census, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Files

  4. Population growth in Texas by Race/Ethnicity 2010-2020 NH White, 4.7% Total Population in 2020 = 29.2 million NH Other, 16.5% NH Black, 13.9% 3.9 million new Texans between 2010-2020 NH Asian, 15.3% 95.3% attributable to growth of Hispanic, NH Asian, NH Black, and NH Other Hispanic, 49.5% Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Census, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Files Note: there were changes in the capture and processing of race data changed between 2010 and 2020

  5. States with Most Population Change, 2020-2023 Population Estimate (as of July 1) Geographic Area Rank Rank Change 22-23 Pct. Change 22-23 2020 2021 2022 2023 Change 22-23 Pct. Change 22-23 United States 331,511,512 332,031,554 333,287,557 334,914,895 1,643,484 0.5% Texas 29,234,361 29,561,286 30,029,848 30,503,301 473,453 1 1.6% 3 Florida 21,591,299 21,830,708 22,245,521 22,610,726 365,205 2 1.6% 2 North Carolina 10,453,812 10,567,100 10,695,965 10,835,491 139,526 3 1.3% 5 Georgia 10,732,390 10,790,385 10,913,150 11,029,227 116,077 4 1.1% 10 South Carolina 5,132,151 5,193,848 5,282,955 5,373,555 90,600 5 1.7% 1 Tennessee 6,926,091 6,963,709 7,048,976 7,126,489 77,513 6 1.1% 8 Arizona 7,186,683 7,272,487 7,365,684 7,431,344 65,660 7 0.9% 12 Virginia 8,637,193 8,657,348 8,679,099 8,715,698 36,599 8 0.4% 23 Colorado 5,785,219 5,811,596 5,841,039 5,877,610 36,571 9 0.6% 18 Utah 3,283,982 3,339,284 3,381,236 3,417,734 36,498 10 1.1% 9 ’22-’23 -> 1,297 New Texans per day SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2023 vintage

  6. Estimated Racial/Ethnic Composition of Texas Population, 2022 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, 0.1 Hispanic or Latino (of any race), 40.2 American Indian and Alaska Native alone (NH), 0.2 White alone (NH), 38.9 Some other race alone (NH), 0.4 Two or more races, 3.2 Black or African American alone (NH), 11.7 Asian alone (NH), 5.4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year sample, 2022

  7. Estimated Numeric Change, Texas Counties, 2021-2022 95 of Texas counties lost population SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2022 Vintage

  8. Estimated Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2021-2022 SOURCE: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates

  9. Components of Population Change, Texas, 2011 to 2022 250 K 200 K 150 K 100 K 50 K 0 K 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Natural Increase Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2011-2022

  10. Texas’ Daily Population Growth and Components of Change, 2020-2023

  11. Foreign-Born Population in Texas: World Region of Birth by Year of Entry Before 2000 72.1 18.8 Foreign-Born Population in Texas: World Region of Birth by Year of Entry 2000 to 2009 66.9 22.4 2010 or later 54.3 28.9 Latin America Asia Africa Europe Other Regions Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), 2021 One-Year Estimates Subject Tables

  12. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2021-2022 Percent of Change from International Migration Percent of Change from Domestic Migration Percent of Change from Natural Increase 2022 Population Estimate Population Change 2021-2022 County US Rank Harris Collin Denton Fort Bend Bexar Montgomery Williamson Tarrant Travis Kaufman Hays Dallas Comal Brazoria Ellis Parker 2 3 4 7 9 4,780,913 1,158,696 977,281 889,146 2,059,530 678,490 671,418 2,154,595 1,326,436 172,366 269,225 2,600,840 184,642 388,181 212,182 165,834 45,626 44,246 33,424 29,022 28,635 28,229 26,967 25,193 17,892 14,150 13,160 12,886 9,751 9,323 9,075 8,868 63.6% 13.9% 16.7% 15.3% 27.7% 10.3% 13.6% 39.6% 47.4% 6.0% 11.1% 115.7% 0.5% 16.2% 8.8% 2.7% 78.7% 17.8% 10.8% 23.1% 18.3% 7.2% 8.0% 32.0% 39.8% 1.1% 3.7% 128.5% 0.2% 9.2% 1.8% 1.3% -42.2% 68.3% 72.5% 61.6% 54.1% 82.5% 78.4% 28.3% 12.9% 92.9% 85.3% -144.2% 99.3% 74.6% 89.3% 96.0% 12 10 12 13 20 29 36 38 48 50 52 53 Source: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates

  13. Source: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates

  14. Source: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates Source: US Census Bureau, 2022 Population Estimates

  15. Texas Birth Rates, 2007-2019 110 Births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 102.9 Hispanic or Latino 100 90 Asian or Pacific Islander, not Hispanic 80 70.6 68.9 Black or African American, not Hispanic 70 66.9 63.2 58.8 60 56.7 White, not Hispanic 56.4 50 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics.

  16. Enrollment in Nursery School and Preschool, Texas Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year estimates

  17. Generational Population Pyramids, Texas, 2010 and 2020 2010 2020 2010 2010 Year of birth 2015 2015 2020 2020 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 and 2020 Vintage Population Estimates

  18. Percent Distribution by Education Attainment of Texas Residents (Non-Migrants), Immigrants (international) and Net-Migrants (domestic) Aged 25 Years and Over, Texas, 2015-2019 30.0% 28.5% 27.4% 25.3% 25.0% 21.7% 21.3% 19.4% 19.2% 20.0% 18.9% 17.2% 17.0% 16.5% 16.5% 15.0% 10.8% 10.1% 9.6% 10.0% 9.0% 7.2% 4.4% 5.0% 0.0% LT HS HS or Equiv Some College No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Residents Immigrants (International) Net-Migrants (Domestic) SOURCE: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, PUMS, 5-Year Samples, 2015-2019

  19. Percent of the Population Aged-25 Years and Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2011 and 2021 70% Percent Change 2011-2021 61.6% 60% 52.5% 17.3% 50% 21.9% 42.4% 40% 34.8% 28.1% 38.4% 30% 50.8% 20.3% 18.1% 20% 12.0% 10% 0% NH White NH Black Hispanic Asian 2011 2021 20 Source: US Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates, 2011, 2021

  20. Poverty Rates by Age Groups in Texas SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, 2012 and 2022

  21. Change in Income Inequality, Texas Counties, 2012-2022 NOTE: Household income inequality is measured by the Gini Coefficient SOURCE: U.S Census American Community Survey 2012 and 2022 5-year Estimates

  22. Housing Cost Burden in Texas, 2017-2021 SOURCE: US Census Bureau, 2021 1-Year American Community Survey Summary File

  23. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample, 2021

  24. Percent of Households without an Internet Subscription, Texas Census Tracts SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2021 ACS 5-year estimates

  25. Percent Uninsured by Race/Ethnicity, Texas 2021 18% of Texans are uninsured with differences among race/ethnic groups Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2021 1-year estimates

  26. Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population with a Disability, Texas 2021

  27. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2020-2060 50,000,000 47,342,105 Total Popluation 2018 Vintage 44,391,658 45,000,000 Total Population 1.0 (2022) 40,000,000 Total Population 0.5 (2022) 35,000,000 36,722,840 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 2020 2041 2042 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 SOURCE: Texas Demographic Center, Vintage 2022 and 2018 Population Projections

  28. Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2020-2060

  29. Texas Demographic Conference May 29-30 I Austin, TX • U.S. Census Bureau, American Click here to edit text style Community Survey (ACS On the Road Event) • Higher Education Trends in Texas • Broadband Expansion • Water, transportation, economic development • Population projections Source

  30. Follow us on social media! Texas Demographic Center @TexasDemography texasdemographiccenter Texas Demographic Center

  31. Monica Cruz, Ph.D. Visit our website 210-458-6543 tdc@utsa.edu Sign up for our newsletter demographics.texas.gov @TexasDemography Follow us on social media

  32. Monica Cruz, Ph.D Monica Cruz, Ph.D. . (210) 458-6530 TDC@UTSA.edu demographics.texas.gov/ @TexasDemography

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