JNEM

1. JNEM Joint Non-Kinetic Effects Model

2. Operations Research Pencil & Paper Mathematical Models Map Wargames Analytical Simulations Staff Rides Command Post Exercises Map Wargames Training Simulations Board Games Sand Tables Wargaming Historical Overview Analysis Experiments Experiments Limited Training Field Exercises Limited B.C. 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

3. Today’s Situation • Force-on-force simulations are getting better and better, but they are not sufficient • Enemies often fight in urban areas, in the midst of “innocent” civilians • Commanders must consider: • effects of military operations on civilians and, likewise • effects of potential and actual civilian activity on military operations • It is impractical to embed a non-kinetic, civilian “mood” simulation inside every force-on-force simulation.

4. JNEM Development History • Apr 2005 - Start of Program • National Simulation Center approached JPL • Asked for development of a stand-alone non-kinetic simulation, • capable of being federated in entity and aggregate federations • JNEM is currently funded by PEO-STRI • Nov 2005 - Successful Operation of Proof-of-Principle • Jun 2006 - JNEM Initial Capability Delivered • Limited resolution and functionality, but • Very Stable (no crashes during testing or entire first year of use) • Jun 2007 - Neighborhood Resolution • Rule sets provide further increases to resolution and functionality • Linkage in several different federations • Mar 2008 - JNEM selected as winner of the Army Modeling & Simulation Team Award for 2007.

5. JNEM Overview • JNEM was developed as a training simulation designed to immerse commanders in an environment where civilians and civilian groups are the key terrain. • Decision Makers are faced with competing civilian groups who have differing levels of satisfaction/dissatisfaction and moods - and who are likely to become violently hostile.

6. Civilian Concerns & Mood(Scaled from -100 to +100) • AUT — Autonomy To what extent does the civilian group feel they can maintain order and govern themselves with a stable government and a viable economy? • SAF — Physical Safety To what extent do they fear for their lives? • CUL — Cultural / Religious Issues How do they feel about their culture and religion? To what extent do they feel their beliefs are being properly respected by others? • QOL — Quality of Life How do they feel about their property, the physical infrastructure, health care, economic conditions, and all aspects of living other than those covered by other concerns? • “Mood” = Composite of the above, weighted by the importance of each, which in general is different for each group in each neighborhood.

7. Dynamic Cooperation Modelbased on the TRAC HUMINT Methodology • Cooperation Levels, Ωnfg, are interpreted as the probability that group f in neighborhood n will cooperate with (e.g., provide intel to) group g.

8. JNEM Design Philosophy Loose coupling with other federates allows“easy” linkage to different ground simulationsof different resolutions • Unit locations, activities and effects in ground simulations are passed to JNEM — Not ground simulation details of how these are modeled • Some ground simulation effects cause ripple effects among civilians • Damage to a power station in a ground simulation can cause the JNEM civilian population to experience an electrical blackout • Some JNEM-initiated civilian actions happen in ground simulations • Civilian unrest can generate more hostile units in a ground simulation; these units can attack military forces in the ground simulation • Some JNEM-initiated civilian actions happen in JNEM only • Civilians in JNEM can kidnap civilians in JNEM, affecting overall civilian moods.

9. Effects of Civilian Moods • Moods affect the rate of reactive events that range from dancing in the streets in celebration, to rioting, to spawning hostiles or hostile supporters and hostile activities (e.g., bombing), and from withholding cooperation to cooperating with force groups (e.g., providing intelligence). 

10. Current Development • Increase JNEM Simulation Timeframe • Longer-term Operations: • 1–3 month game turns within 1–2 year periods • See long-term effects of short-term operations: • Just continue to run JNEM after the force activity is completed • Allow Reactive Decision Criteria: • Training audience specifies what to do in contingency situations • Evolving to Longer Timeframe Requires JNEM + … • Economic Model • Political Model • Demographic Model • Actors (Human and/or Automated) • “Clout”.

11. Potential Applications • COA Development and Wargaming:OneSAF + JNEM • Simulate short-term political/economic interventions in combination with force activities to obtain near-term impact • Fast forward to see possible long-term effects • Stability and COINOperations: AWARS + JNEM • Simulate different troop placements and activities over several months • Compare and contrast resulting political, economic and cultural situations.

12. Questions or Comments?

13. Backup Slides

14. Known In the Federation’s ground sims, air sims, log sims, and MSELs: Monitored & abstract events & situations Civilian groups are in neighborhoods thruout the playbox Multisided force groups conduct explicit and implicit activities International organiza-tions, governmental & non-governmental, and local & foreign contractors perform various services Computed CIV Concerns Autonomy Safety Culture Quality of Life Satisfaction & Mood by N’hood Group Attributable Event Reports Analyze Situation and Relate Causes to Effects JIN Rules Causes Playbox withNeighborhoods Satisfaction Changes Group Relationships Cooperation Changes CIV Cooperation with FRC Groups by Neighborhood ng security Sort out Interactions JRAM Number of Hostiles by N’hood Group Cooperation Levels Pending Events Aggressive ROEsKidnappings/Hijackings Suicide Bombings Assassinations Reactive Events by N’hood Group Satisfaction Levels and Slopes by Neighborhood Group Current Events Enable/Disable Hostiles CARs, CIRs, OARs Exposures JNEM Database Relationships Saliencies Initial Conditions Long-Term Trends etc. ORG Concerns Casualties Service Attitudes toward Neighborhoods Reactive Events Generate & Assign Reactive Events JOUT Information Flow in JNEM JIN (examples) Monitored Events CIV Casualties Hostile Captures Abs. FRC Activities Patrol Curfew Checkpoint Abs. ORG Activities CMO (incl HRO) Mon. Situations Combat FRC Presence Abstract Events Assassinations Kidnappings Abs. Situations Damage to Mosque Garbage in Street Sewage Power Out No Water

15. Variety of Simulation Constructs • Monitored Events: Occur in the ground simulation, monitored by JNEM • Civilian, ORG, & Hostile Casualties and Hostile Captures • Monitored Situations: Occur in the ground simulation over a period of time, monitored by JNEM • Presence and Activity of Force Units and ORG Units • Reactive Events: Triggered by Moods in JNEM, but actually happen in the ground simulation • Civilian units become Hostile Supporters or Hostile Combatants • Abstract Events: Human input into JNEM • Assassinations of important individuals input via ISM • Abstract Situations: Triggered by events in ground simulation or by human input, but happen in JNEM • Power Outages, Food/Water Shortages, etc • Reactive Abstract Events: Triggered by Moods in JNEM and happen only in JNEM • Bombings, Assassinations, Kidnappings, etc.

16. Abstract Situations • Magic Input Rule = Generic solution that allows • Controller-Driven Events • Damage to Mosque • Garbage in the Streets • Sewage Spill • Disease • Epidemic • Contaminated Food Supply • Contaminated Water Supply • No Water • Industrial Spill • Oil Pipeline Fire • Oil Refinery Fire • Fuel Shortage • Food Shortage • Unexploded Ordnance • Power Outage • Communications Outage

17. Facilities and Abstract Situations Mosque  Damaged Mosque Power Plant Power Outage Hardened Artillery Site Safe House Electric Substation Power Outage Underground Site Telecommunications Facility Resource Utility Facility Fertilizer Plant Civilian Law Enforcement Power Plant Dam Power Outage School Military Base Chemical Plant  Industrial Spill Hospital Disease Electrical Power Plant Power Outage Oil Refinery  Oil Refinery Fire, Fuel Shortage Pharmaceutical Plant Raw Material Product Storage  Industrial Spill Governmental Facility Medical Treatment Facility Disease Non-Governmental Facility Food Distribution Facility  Contaminated Food Supply, Disease Water Plant No Water Fuel Pumping Station  Oil Pipeline Fire, Fuel Shortage Sewage Treatment Plant  Sewage Spill, No Water, Contaminated Water Supply CBW Production Facility  Contaminated Water Supply, Contaminated Food Supply, Disease Nuclear Power Plant  Contaminated Water Supply, Contaminated Food Supply, Disease, Power Outage Nuclear Material Production Facility  Contaminated Water Supply, Contaminated Food Supply, Disease Weapons Grade Nuclear Material Production Facility  Contaminated Water Supply, Contaminated Food Supply, Disease

18. Force Activities

19. PatrolPurposes & Effects Quad Enemies More Enemies More Enemies More Enemies More • Purposes • Suppress hostile activity; Show of force • Primary Effects: • Decrease all Abstract Hostile Mission Reactive Event rates (which are against the civilian population) by 30% the Force Coverage Fraction • Increase the CAR generation rate by 30% the Force Coverage Fraction(in addition to presence effect) • Change Cooperation: Max slope = S+, Relationship Multiplier = • Coverage Fraction 0, 25, 1000 ( ) • Effects on Satisfaction (for Nominal Coverage) • Cause: • PATROL • p = 0.5 • q = 0