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A problem with the Long Tail

(Read the text in the notes panel at the bottom for narration). A problem with the Long Tail. (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things aren’t. How can you tell the difference?). A powerlaw. Shown another way. WTF?. The Missing Market. Source: Morris Rosenthal.

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A problem with the Long Tail

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  1. (Read the text in the notes panel at the bottom for narration) A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things aren’t. How can you tell the difference?)

  2. A powerlaw

  3. Shown another way

  4. WTF?

  5. The Missing Market

  6. Source: Morris Rosenthal

  7. The problem

  8. Examples of phenomena that follow powerlaw distributions • Species distribution among plants • Square footage of Alaskan Inuit homes • Forest fires, by size • Cities, by population • Death toll in wars • Earthquakes • Word use • Number of papers published by scientists

  9. Examples of phenomena that follow lognormal distributions • Concentration of elements in the earth's crust • Latent periods of infectious diseases • Survival times after cancer diagnosis • Distribution of chemicals in the environment (including pollution) • Species distribution among moths and diatoms • Crystals in ice cream • Length of words in spoken conversation

  10. What’s the difference? Powerlaws: created by “preferential attachment” in scale-free networks.

  11. Lognormal distributions: created by "proportionate effects" (like growing by a proportion of your weight).

  12. Question Assuming it all comes down to network effects, how can you predict whether the “natural shape” (free of bottlenecks and other scarcity distortions) is a powerlaw or a lognormal distribution?

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