ISAAC ASIMOV ASKS: “WHICH IS THE GREATER DANGER – NUCLEAR WARFARE OR THE POPULATION EXPLOSION?”

1. ISAAC ASIMOV ASKS:“WHICH IS THE GREATER DANGER – NUCLEAR WARFARE OR THE POPULATION EXPLOSION?”

2. “ONE OF THE TOUGHEST THINGS FOR A BIOLOGIST TO RECONCILE IS THE CONTRAST BETWEENHIS OR HER RECOGNITION THAT CIVILIZATION IS IN IMMINENT SERIOUS JEOPARDYAND THE MODEST LEVEL OF CONCERN THATPOPULATION ISSUES GENERATE AMONG THE PUBLIC AND EVEN AMONG ELECTED OFFICIALS.”THE POPULATION EXPLOSION

3. In 1900, one out of every five women who died died in childbirth

4. SO WHY DID POPULATION INCREASE? • IMPROVED SANITATION SYSTEMS • ACCESS TO BETTER HEALTH CARE • INCREASED FOOD PRODUCTION

5. “The Scientific Revolution that began in the 1700s was more than just an Industrial Revolution: it transformed medicine, agriculture, settlement, and sanitation … [and] these changes enabled people to live longer and healthier lives. As a consequence, total population and per capita resource use began to grow exponentially … [and] are threatening the environmental systems upon which life on earth depends.”American Ass’n of Geographers

6. For what average lifestyle? For how long? With what values/ tastes/fashions? For what % of the population? With what technology? With what social and political institutions? How many people can the earth support?

7. HOW MUCH IS ENUF? • How many cars does one family require? (On average, Americans go through 6–7 cars/lifetime) • How many computers? • How many calories/meal? • How many square feet/home? • How much fuel? When does one truly require air conditioning? heat?

8. Environmental Footprint • USA: 25 acres • Sweden: 18 acres • Italy: 16 acres • Costa Rica: 12 acres(Central America) • India: 2.1 acres • Sudan 1.1 acres (Football field = l acre)

9. SO –WHO HAS THEPOPULATIONPROBLEM????

11. If population growth continues, there will be billions more people on the planet during the next 30-40 years.These people will all want a higher standard of living. That means the environment will be expected to produce more resources and accept more waste.

12. It’s perfectly understandable that everyone wants a better life, especially those who are so poor now. But if we keep doing things the way we have been, the earth will pay a heavy price. And it’s a price all of us who depend on the planet to support us will eventually pay. Facing the Future

13. If the current rate of consumption of the industrialized nations spreads to less developed nations, it would take an area equal to 2 extra planets to sustain human life. William Reese, University of British Columbia

14. WATER SHORTAGES WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND SEVERE. MOST OF THE MAJOR CITIES IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD WILL FACE SEVERE WATER SHORTAGES IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES, AS WILL ONE-THIRD OF THE AFRICAN POPULATION.BY 2040, AT LEAST 3.5 BILLION PEOPLE WILL RUN SHORT OF WATER – ALMOST 10 TIMES AS MANY AS IN 1995 – AND BY 2050, TWO-THIRDS OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION COULD BE LIVING IN REGIONS WITH CHRONIC, WIDESPREAD SHORTAGES OF WATER.FUTURIST OUTLOOK 2002

15. THE FOREMOST CRISIS IN INDIA WILL BE WATER QUALITY AND QUANTITY. PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY OF WATER HAS DECLINED BY TWO-THIRDS IN THE LAST 50 YEARS, REPORTS RASHMI MAYUR, DIRECTOR OF THE INT’L INSTITUTE FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE. BY 2010, HALF OF INDIA’S POPULATION WILL HAVE TO SURVIVE ON JUST FIVE GALLONS OF WATER PER PERSON PER DAY FOR ALL USES – DRINKING, BATHING, POWER GENERATION, AND SO ON.FUTURIST OUTLOOK 2002

16. BUT THE U.S. IS NOT EXEMPT FROM WATER QUALITY ISSUES.THE TUCSON, AZ, REGION ALREADY DRAWS TWICE AS MUCH WATER FROM ITS GROUND AQUIFERS AS NATURE REPLENISHES AND RELIES HEAVILY ON DAILY RATIONS FROM THE COLORADO RIVER, 360 MILES AWAY.Wall Street Journal / jan 30 01

17. WATER USAGE IS CAUSING OTHER PROBLEMS AS WELL. FOR EXAMPLE, IRRIGATION WATER EVAPORATES, LEAVING MINERALS IN THE SOIL. BY 2020, 30% OF THE WORLD’S ARABLE LAND WILL BE SALTY; BY 2050, 50%. SALINIZATION ALREADY IS CUTTING CROP YIELDS IN INDIA, PAKISTAN, EGYPT, MEXICO, AUSTRALIEA, AND PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES.The FuturistJan/Feb 2003

18. WATER WARS, PREDICTED FOR MORE THAN A DECADE, ARE AN IMMINENT THREAT IN PLACES LIKE KASHMIR: MUCH OF PAKISTAN’S SUPPLY COMES FROM AREAS OF KASHMIR NOW CONTROLLED BY INDIA. SUCH PROBLEMS AS PERIODIC FAMINE AND DESERTIFICATION ALSO CAN BE EXPECTED TO GROW MORE FREQUENT AND SEVERE IN COMING DECADES.THE FUTURISTJAN/FEB 2003

19. WETLANDS ARE DRYING UP, RAISING THE SPECTOR OF MORE DISASTROUS NATURAL DISASTERS AND REDUCED BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY, ACC. TO WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE. ABOUT HALF OF THE WORLD’S WETLANDS DISAPPEARED IN THE 20TH CENTURY, AND ANOTHER 50% OF COASTAL WETLANDS COULD BE LOST BY 2080 DUE TO DEVELOPMENT AND OTHER FACTORS.FUTURIST OUTLOOK 2002

20. LOSS OF BIODIVERSITYAN ESTIMATED 50,000 SPECIES DISAPPEAR EACH YEAR, UP TO 1,000 TIMES THE NATURAL RATE OF EXTINCTION, ACC. TO THE UN ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAM

21. 11% OF BIRDS, 25% OF MAMMALS, AND 20 TO 30% OF ALL PLANTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEARING EXTINCTION.

22. AND WHAT ABOUT WASTE?? • AMERICANS NOW PRODUCE ABOUT 4.4 POUNDS OF TRASH PER PERSON PER DAY, TWICE AS MUCH AS A GENERATION AGO. • IN JUNE 2002, NEW YORK CITY ABANDONED ITS 14-YEAR-OLD RECYCLING EFFORT FOR GLASS, PLASTIC, AND BEVERAGE CARTONS. THIS CUT RECYCLING FROM FROM ABOUT 21% OF WASTE TO 10% AND SENT AN EXTRA 1,200 TONS OF LITTER TO LANDFILLS EVERYDAY. BY CONTRAST, SEATTLE RECYCLES ABOUT HALF OF ITS SOLID WASTE. • 70% OF US LANDFILLS WILL BE FULL BY 2025, ACC. TO THE EPA. • IN LONDON AND SURROUNDING REGION, LANDFILLS WILL RUN OUT OF ROOM BY 2012. FOR HOUSEHOLD TRASH, LANDFILL SPACE WILL BE EXHAUSTED BY 2007.

23. IN SOME OTHERREGIONS, SIMPLY COLLECTING TRASH IS A MAJOR PROBLEM. BRAZIL PRODUCES AN ESTIMATED 240,000 TONS OF GARBAGE DAILY, BUT ONLY 70% REACHES LANDFILLS. THE REST ACCUMULATES IN CITY STREETS, WHERE IT HELPS SPREAD DISEASE.THE FUTURISTJAN/FEB 2003

24. RECYCLING AND WASTE-TO-ENERGY PLANTS ARE A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TO SIMPLY DUMPING GARBAGE. THE UNITED STATES HAS MORE THAN 2,200 LANDFILLS. EUROPE, WHERE RECYCLING AND ENERGY CONVERSION ARE MUCH MORE COMMON, GETS BY WITH 175.

25. ISAAC ASIMOV ASKS:“WHICH IS THE GREATER DANGER – NUCLEAR WARFARE OR THE POPULATION EXPLOSION?”

26. HIS ANSWER: “TO BRING ABOUT NUCLEAR WAR, SOMEONE HAS TO DO SOMETHING; SOMEONE HAS TO PRESS A BUTTON. TO BRING ABOUT DESTRUCTION BY OVERCROWDING, MASS STARVATION, ANARCHY, THE DESTRUCTION OF OUR MOST CHERISHED VALUES – THERE IS NO NEED TO DO ANYTHING. WE NEED ONLY DO NOTHING EXCEPT WHAT COMES NATURALLY – AND BREED. AND HOW EASY IT IS TO DO NOTHING!”

27. SUSTAINABILITY AN ECONOMY IS SUSTAINABLE ONLY IF IT RESPECTS THE PRINCIPLES OF ECOLOGY. THESE PRINICIPLES ARE AS REAL AS AERODYNAMICS. IF AN AIRCRAFT IS TO FLY, IT HAS TO SATISFY THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF…

28. THRUST AND LIFT.SO, TOO, IF AN ECONOMY IS TO SUSTAIN PROGRESS, IT MUST SATISFY THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF ECOLOGY. IF IT DOES NOT, IT WILL DECLINE AND EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE. THERE IS NO MIDDLE GROUND. AN ECONOMY IS EITHER SUSTAINABLE OR IT IS NOT. THE FUTURIST, MAR-AP 02

29. “We have built an environmental bubble economy, one where economic output is artificially inflated by over-consumption of the earth’s natural assets. The challenge today is to deflate the bubble before it bursts.”Lester Brown, The FuturistNov/Dec, 2003

30. “Sustainability is a great concept, but the world needs restoration first. After all, who really wants to sustain the mess we’re living in now?”Storm Cunningham: “Restorative Development: Economic Growth without Destruction,” July-Aug 2003, p 26

31. UN CONFERENCE ON POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT: Efforts to slow population growth, to reduce poverty, to achieve economic progress, to improve environmental protection, and to reduce unsustainable consumption and production patterns are mutually reinforcing.

32. Population Growth/Corporate Dominance/Urbanization Increased Increased Needs Consumption Environmental Declining Destruction ResourcesScarcity and PovertyDiscrimination / Migration / Conflict