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Impact of China s Entry into WTO on ASEAN Economies

The Final Report. IntroductionASEANChina (Economic Profile)WTOEconomic implication on China's Entry into WTO on ChinaSouth East Asia in CrisisImpact of China's emergence on ASEAN economiesEconomic Outlook of ASEAN. . OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION. Two major parts of the final report:ASEAN : Overview -- presented by KarimShort-term and Long-term impact of China's emergence on ASEAN -- presented by JahanShort Question

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Impact of China s Entry into WTO on ASEAN Economies

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    1. Impact of China’s Entry into WTO on ASEAN Economies

    3. OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION Two major parts of the final report: ASEAN : Overview -- presented by Karim Short-term and Long-term impact of China’s emergence on ASEAN -- presented by Jahan Short Question & Answer -- Karim, Jahan, Veronika & Alicia

    4. ASEAN : OVERVIEW ASEAN , The Association of Southeast Asian Nations) is a regional alliance of ten independent countries that promotes stability and economic growth in Southeast Asia. look at coba-jae2look at coba-jae2

    5. ASEAN: Overview

    6. ASEAN : OVERVIEW ASEAN’s aims and purposes: Accelerate economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region , and promote regional peace and stability. look at coba-jaelook at coba-jae

    7. Selected some of the ASEAN country members performance figures in year 2000 look at coba-jaelook at coba-jae

    8. Selected some of the ASEAN country members performance figures in year 2000 look at coba-jae2look at coba-jae2

    9. Launch of AFTA in 1992: The strategic objective of AFTA is to increase the ASEAN region’s competitive advantage as a single production unit. In fact, Within three years from the launching of AFTA, exports among ASEAN countries grew from US$43.26 billion in 1993 to almost US$80 billion in 1996, an average yearly growth rate of 28.3 percent. ASEAN : OVERVIEW look at coba-jae2look at coba-jae2

    10. In addition to trade and investment liberalization, regional economic integration is being pursued through the development of Trans-ASEAN transportation network consisting of major inter-state highway and railway networks, principal ports and sea lanes for maritime traffic, inland waterway transport and major civil aviation links. ASEAN : OVERVIEW look at coba-jae look at coba-jae look at coba-jae2look at coba-jae look at coba-jae look at coba-jae2

    11. ASEAN vital sectors coverage: Trade, investment, industry, services, finance, agriculture, forestry, energy, transportation and communication, intellectual property, small and medium enterprises and tourism. ASEAN : OVERVIEW look at coba-jae2look at coba-jae2

    12. Selected ASEAN indicators, 2000

    13. ASEAN’s External Trade 1999 US, EU and Japan collectively account for 61% of ASEAN’s total external trade.

    14. 1947: Foundation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in Geneva, Switzerland. At that time, it imposed some trade policies as forbiddance of export subsidiaries except for agricultural products, interdiction of imposing unilateral quotas on import excluding the case of imported goods threatening the local markets. World Trade Organization Overview

    15. World Trade Organization Overview 1967: A new decision was stopped during the Kennedy Round. It stated that all tariffs should be reduced by 35% except for specified industries in which tariffs were left unchanged. Then, during the Tokyo round, new codes were established in order to control the imposture of non-tariff barriers such as voluntary export restraints.

    16. Economy situation in China

    17. Economy situation in China

    18. Foreign companies might take the best employees and customers. Furthermore, they will dominate all high-margin sectors, whereas the domestic companies will only focus on less competitive commodity Economy situation in China

    19. China’s trading goods REGULATION

    20. China’s trading goods

    21. China’s infrastructure REGULATION

    22. China’s infrastructure

    23. China’s business sector REGULATION

    24. China’s business sector

    25. China‘s agricultural REGULATION

    26. China‘s agricultural

    27. China’s industry REGULATION

    28. China’s industry

    29. Overall China Right now the unemployment rate is just 3.3%/ However, this number is expected will be increased, estimated 65.5% from 1995 to 2005, as the increasing of imports and competition from firms which have foreign investment.

    30. SE Asia in Crisis End of the East Asian economic miracle

    31. SE Asia in Crisis

    32. SE Asia in Crisis

    33. GDP, 1996-2000 Rates of Growth of Real GDP, 1996-2000 (in percent)

    34. Exports

    35. US – The “Saviour” and “Villain” – US economy’s continuing growth momentum instrumental in pulling SE Asian countries out of the crisis of 1997-1998.

    36. US – The “Saviour” and “Villain” –

    37. US – The “Saviour” and “Villain” –

    38. US – The “Saviour” and “Villain” – Signs of trouble: mid-2000

    39. US – The “Saviour” and “Villain” – US economic slowdown + 11 September attacks in US

    40. SE Asian’s Major Trading Economic Woes of SE Asian’s Major Trading Partners

    41. US, EU & JAPAN’s Real GDP Growth Rate

    42. Out of The Wok & into the Fire

    43. Out of The Wok & into the Fire

    44. Out of The Wok & into the Fire

    45. Out of The Wok & into the Fire

    46. Tourism Receipts as Percent of GDP, 2000

    47. Tourism Receipts as Percent of GDP, 2000

    48. Trade Openness Year 2000 (Export + Import)/GDP

    49. Reliance on Trade/Exports

    50. Reliance on Trade/Exports

    51. Impact of Global Economic Downturn Fall in Capital Flows

    52. Foreign Direct Investment Major ASEAN countries 1996-1999

    53. Foreign Direct Investment % Change of Foreign Direct Investment 1996 to 1999

    54. Impact of Global Economic Downturn Fall in Capital Flows

    55. Impact of Global Economic Downturn Increase in Debt Servicing

    56. Total External Debt

    57. Total External Debt /GNP 1996-1999

    58. Currencies lost Average lost in value of local currencies against US$1 from 1996 to 2000

    59. SE Asia in Crisis Adverse effect on global commerce & reduction in revenues from tourism.

    60. SE Asia in Crisis Global recovery expected from mid-2002

    61. SE Asia in Crisis “ . . . China’s emergence is triggering a second Asian economic crisis more severe than the first. But unlike the currency speculators who triggered the 1997 crisis, China won’t go away.” -- Kenichi Ohmae

    62. China’s entry into WTO, will undoubtedly change China and have important implications on its neighbors like ASEAN countries and developing world. What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    63. What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    64. What would be the economic fate of ASEAN Pu Yonghao, an analysist at Nomura Asia in Hong Kong, predicted in a report, as the result of WTO entry of China, foreign trade would be doubled to more than USD 1000 bn by 2006, with export growing by 15% annualy from 2002 to 2006. FDI would grow by 16% annualy from 2002 to 2006. the same topic as i-in’sthe same topic as i-in’s

    65. What would be the economic fate of ASEAN the same topic as i-in’sthe same topic as i-in’s

    66. So China access into WTO may not be a “positive sum of game” for the ASEAN- shall it be win-win or lose-win??? What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    67. What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    68. What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    69. Asian financial crisis and China’s market opening have diverted attention away from ASEAN to China What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    70. Economic slowdown across the west-leading companies to relocate in search of cheaper labor What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    71. Chinese Economy Changing from Agriculture to manufacturing

    72. What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    73. What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    74. What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    75. What would be the economic fate of ASEAN

    76. Win Win Situation?? Strategic imperative of close ASEAN-China linkages and interaction is evident

    77. Win Win Situation??

    78. Win Win Situation??

    79. Win Win Situation??

    80. Win Win Situation??

    81. Win Win Situation??

    82. Win Win Situation??

    83. Win Win Situation??

    84. Win Win Situation??

    85. Win Win Situation??

    86. Win Win Situation??

    87. Win Win Situation??

    88. Win Win Situation??

    89. Win Win Situation?? China had ??? or China has ????China had ??? or China has ????

    90. Win Win Situation??

    91. Conclusion Short run : With the China’s entry into WTO, ASEAN countries will face a lot of challenges to compete with China. In short, we can say that the future of ASEAN is gloomy. Southeast Asia needs to invest more in infrastructure, technology and human capital resources, particularly as New Economy industries emerge. Southeast Asia needs to invest more in infrastructure, technology and human capital resources, particularly as New Economy industries emerge.

    92. Conclusion Long run : China will replace the role of Japan as economic engine for the ASEAN region, which has played for past 3 decades. As a result, ASEAN economies can take benefit of this situation. Southeast Asia needs to invest more in infrastructure, technology and human capital resources, particularly as New Economy industries emerge. Southeast Asia needs to invest more in infrastructure, technology and human capital resources, particularly as New Economy industries emerge.

    93. Conclusion “A strong and economically dynamic China would create many more opportunities for ASEAN members”. (Singapore minister trade and Industry – George Yong Boon)

    94. Suggestion To meet the economic challenge of China's attractiveness to foreign investments, the members of the Association of South East Asian Nations will have to combine their markets in an ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). Southeast Asia needs to invest more in infrastructure, technology and human capital resources, particularly as New Economy industries emerge. Southeast Asia needs to invest more in infrastructure, technology and human capital resources, particularly as New Economy industries emerge.

    95. Suggestion Southeast Asia needs to invest more in infrastructure, technology and human capital resource, particularly as New Economy industries emerge. Southeast Asia needs to invest more in infrastructure, technology and human capital resources, particularly as New Economy industries emerge. Launch AFTA as soon as possible instead of in year 2003 Southeast Asia needs to invest more in infrastructure, technology and human capital resources, particularly as New Economy industries emerge. Launch AFTA as soon as possible instead of in year 2003

    96. Bibliography

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